The 2021 NFL Draft strikes the Giants again, and again

Let’s rub a little salt in the wound while we’re suffering

In the midst of this horror story of a season, I don’t need to remind Big Blue View readers what a disaster the 2021 NFL Draft was for the New York Giants…but I’m going to anyway, because it’s actually even more amazing than I had realized until now. It’s worth looking back because although Joe Schoen seems not to have exactly covered himself in glory with his first two drafts as Giants’ GM, it really takes several years to see how players develop. Micah McFadden is a good example of not making immediate judgments on draft picks, and maybe Cor’Dale Flott is starting to be as well, though time will tell.

The books are closed on the 2021 class as they reach the end of their rookie contracts, however. Only Azeez Ojulari from that group remains a Giant, and none of the other five have done anything of note elsewhere in the NFL. More to the point for the exercise I’m about to go through, we now know more about players the Giants could have drafted and didn’t. That draft, top to bottom, has as much to say about the current state of the team as anything that followed.

Not that you need a reminder, but then-GM Dave Gettleman got jumped by the Philadelphia Eagles, who traded up with the Dallas Cowboys to beat the Giants to wide receiver DeVonta Smith, who has become a star despite concerns about his slight frame. Then Gettleman traded down from No. 11 to No. 20 so that Chicago could draft Justin Fields. That allowed Dallas, who had moved down to No. 12 in the trade with the Eagles, to select Micah Parsons, who is now arguably the second-best edge defender in the NFL (no one beats Myles Garrett in my book). The third-round pick Dallas got from the Eagles in the trade was used to select Chauncey Golston, i.e., Dallas got both of their current starting edge defenders from that one trade. The Giants of course took Kadarius Toney at No. 20, and that didn’t quite work out, but that’s old news and not what this piece is about.

It turns out that the 2021 Draft was the “gift” that keeps on giving, if you like misery, because Gettleman made three trades during that draft, not just the big one in the first round. First, the Giants got three other picks from the Bears in the first round trade, two of them in the 2022 draft. At the time, the results looked pretty good: The other 2021 pick (a fifth rounder) was used in a Round 3 trade-up with Denver to allow the Giants to beat the Eagles to promising cornerback Aaron Robinson. The Eagles’ war room didn’t look happy. Ultimately, though, ARob’s career never took off because of a serious injury and he was released this past summer. The two 2022 picks became Evan Neal and Daniel Bellinger. Giants fans were ecstatic in the moment that they finally had their right tackle to bookend with Andrew Thomas, and Bellinger was a pleasant surprise as a rookie before an eye injury derailed his season. For whatever reason, Bellinger has fallen out of favor and has been an afterthought in this year’s offense until now, while Neal’s NFL career has been a disappointment from Day 1.

This is old news. Why write about it now?

For that, I have to thank old friend of BBV Invictus XI. Every year Invictus writes up a detailed plan for how he would improve the Giants if he were the GM. This year’s plan for building the roster is pretty interesting. You can read it here:

Of course he drafts a quarterback in the first round, but that’s not why I’m writing this piece. After QB, what would you say are the Giants’ greatest weaknesses? I’d say the interior defensive line beyond Dexter Lawrence (Sunday’s game against New Orleans notwithstanding), boundary cornerback, and though the offensive line is a lot better this year, guard Greg Van Roten (who has played well) is on a one-year contract and is 34, so they really need to acquire his successor. Invictus XI has a plan for doing all these things in free agency: IDL Milton Williams, G Aaron Banks, and CB Byron Murphy.

That’s where things started to ring a bell for me. Let’s return to the 2021 Draft, and that Round 3 trade-up for ARob. Here’s what that part of the draft looked like after the trade (final column below is weighted Approximate Value, a measure of productivity over time):

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

Milton Williams looked like a bust as a rookie, but since then he has been a productive pass rusher and in two of his three years, a strong run defender as well:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Not impressed with Williams? OK, the pick after ARob was another IDL, Alim McNeill. Here are his stats:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

McNeill also got off to a slow start, but beginning with Detroit’s victory over the Giants in 2022, he has become one of the better IDLs in the league.

Still not impressed? Let’s go down two more picks to No. 75, Osa Odighizuwa:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Same story. Slow start to his career, but solid, especially as a pass rusher, since year 2. Any of those three IDLs could have been nice backups to Leonard Williams for a year or two and then taken over as starter next to Dexter Lawrence in the middle of 2023 when Williams was traded. Two of them went to division rivals. The Giants on the other hand, after taking B.J. Hill in Round 3 in 2018 (and later trading him) and Lawrence in Round 1 in 2019, have not taken an IDL on Day 1 or Day 2 of the draft in the five years since. And it shows on game day.

So to summarize: In a single draft, Dallas revamped their entire defensive line: Parsons, Odighizuwa, Golston. Those three accounted for 15 pressures, including four sacks, of Drew Lock on Thanksgiving Day.

One other note: After Odighizuwa, New Orleans took cornerback Paulson Adebo. He had a rough first two years, but has been solid since, with seven interceptions in the past two seasons. The Giants didn’t see him on Sunday because he’s injured, but they could sure use a boundary corner. In fairness Gettleman tried with ARob, but it didn’t work out, and sometimes bad luck has as much to do with NFL success as drafting acumen.

But there’s more. Let’s go back to Round 2, where Gettleman traded down from No. 42 to No. 50 with Miami. That made Azeez Ojulari a Giant. I was thrilled because Ojulari was a first round value who dropped because of concerns from a high school injury that was thought to be degenerative. That hasn’t shown up as a pro, but Ojulari has been bitten by the injury bug in other ways much of his career. Invictus would bring him back on a one-year prove-it deal, because he does produce as a pass rusher and has some value. But were there other choices? Let’s see:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Miami didn’t get great value by trading up for Liam Eichenberg; he’s had a subpar career. But Aaron Banks (whom Invictus would sign as a free agent) was drafted No. 48. After hardly playing as a rookie while in Kyle Shanahan’s doghouse, he has become a solid if not dominant guard since, with only 3 sacks surrendered in 3 seasons:

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Sam Cosmi, taken one pick after Ojulari by the Giants’ other division rival, Washington, has been even better since moving inside from right tackle to guard after his second season (cue the “Why don’t the Giants move Neal to guard?” refrain):

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Unlike Banks, Cosmi is not a free agent because the new regime in Washington signed him to a four-year, $74M extension in September.

This is a bit off-topic, but going one pick beyond Cosmi, Cleveland took Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at No. 52. JOK dropped that far partly because, like Isaiah Simmons, he was a “tweener” safety-linebacker hybrid whose role in an NFL defense seemed uncertain. Unlike Simmons, though, who hasn’t really been able to stake a claim to a starting job either in Arizona or with the Giants, JOK is now considered one of the NFL’s better linebackers.

There have been plenty of mistakes in the draft by the Giants front office since Gettleman was “allowed to retire” after the 2021 season. Imagine, though, what things would be like if all three 2021 Gettleman draft trades had not happened and the Giants had not only Micah Parsons, but also one of the three defensive tackles and one of the two offensive linemen who were there for the picking. None of it would have solved the quarterback problem, but whoever the Giants’ GM is next season, a focus on building both the defensive and offensive lines in the draft would be nice…even if the results don’t show up on the field for two to three years.