Simulation puts Giants at nearly a 40% chance of getting the top pick
The 2-11 New York Giants now have a 38.9% chance of picking No. 1 overall in the 2025 NFL Drat, according to the latest simulation from Pro Football Network. The New England Patriots (18%) have the second-best chance at the first pick, with the Las Vegas Raiders No. 3 at 16.6%.
Per Tankathon, the Giants currently have the No. 2 overall pick with the Raiders at No. 1.
Here are PFN’s overall look at the teams with a chance at the top pick:
- New York Giants, 38.9%
- New England Patriots, 18.0%
- Las Vegas Raiders, 16.6%
- Carolina Panthers, 7.0%
- Cleveland Browns, 5.2%
- Jacksonville Jaguars, 4.9%
- Tennessee Titans, 3.6%
- New York Jets, 3.1%
- Chicago Bears, 2.1%
When the Giants waived quarterback Daniel Jones, PFN estimated the team’s chance at the first overall pick at 10.1%. A week ago, that stood at 30%. Now, nearly 40%.
What the Giants do with their first-round pick, whether it is No. 1 or later, is anybody’s guess. And something commenters here at BBV will, I’m sure, spend the next several months arguing about.
Whether Joe Schoen is the GM ultimately making the pick remains to be seen.
The depleted Giants may not intentionally be tanking, but it would be a surprise if as currently constructed they win more than one of their remaining four games. So, a top three pick seems like a near-certainty at this point.
