The opening betting lines for Week 15 have been released and the Detroit Lions begin the week as favorites over the Buffalo Bills.
The Detroit Lions (12-1) will host the Buffalo Bills (10-3) at Ford Field in Week 15, in a battle between two top-5 teams in the NFL. The folks at FanDuel Sportsbook are expecting this game to be close and have opened the line at Lions -2.5 points.
The Lions and the Bills are two of the most efficient teams in the NFL, and entering Week 14, they were the only two teams in the NFL to rank in the top 10 in overall significant DVOA categories, including: overall, offense, defense, passing, rushing, defending the pass, and defending the run. The only general DVOA category the Bills don’t rank in the top 10 in was special teams, where they entered the week 25th, while the Lions maintain their No. 1 ranking on special teams.
Both teams also entered the week on long winning streaks. Despite being decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball the Lions continue to stack wins and are now on an 11-game winning streak. While the Bills were on a seven-game winning streak before falling to the Los Angeles Rams 44-42 in Week 14. It’ll be curious to see how this loss will impact their stellar DVOA rankings.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns while running back Kyren Williams ran for 87 of the team’s 137 overall rushing yards, while also scoring two touchdowns. Wide receiver Puka Nacua also ran for a touchdown (five carries for 16 yards), while also making 12 receptions for 162 yards and caught one of Stafford’s passes in the end zone. Additionally, the Rams also blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown, which will certainly impact the Bills’ standing on special teams.
Josh Allen was basically the Bills’ entire offense in this game, as he threw for 342 yards and ran for 82 yards, while also scoring all six of the Bills touchdowns, three passing, and three rushing. It was an impressive performance and truly illustrates the complexity of defending a talent like Allen.
Potentially playing into the Lions’ favor is, despite a heroic performance in Los Angeles, Allen’s home vs. away splits are noticeable and he tends to play much better outside than indoors. For example, his passer rating at home is 114.8, while on the road it drops to 85.1, and indoors, it’s a shocking 58.7 rating. On the road, Allen scores less than half as many touchdowns as when at home, while his interceptions and sack numbers also increase away from Buffalo.
While a lot of the numbers will favor the Lions in this game, their health on defense will go a long way in determining if they can force Allen into a bad game, or if the offense will need to be prepared for a shootout.
Either way, this should be a fun game.
