Vikings Beat Falcons in Week 14, 42-21: The Average Fan’s Reaction

The prodigal dork’s return did NOT go well

Chances are, if you’ve ever read anything I’ve written, it was about baseball. I’ve been working behind the scenes at Daily Norseman for a couple of months now, and am ready to start writing more than just the open thread every few days.

But I realize my limitations. Football is my second love, and it’s not like I’m completely without knowledge of the game. In fact, a significant portion of my day job revolves around NFL coverage.

So, what I deduced could be fun is observations from the average fan. I might not be able to diagnose a Cover 2 as well as Arif Hasan or break down film like Luke Braun, but like Luke, I think I can learn from our community as the season goes.

So let’s go! Here are my observations from Week 14:

The juxtaposition between Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins was *chef’s kiss*

The duo was separated by just three passing yards, but miles apart elsewhere. Cousins’ funk — which I suspected cratered a week too early coming into the game, but was wrong about — continued for a fourth straight week.

In Week 9, Atlanta beat Dallas and Kirk threw for 222 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions (144.8 passer rating). Since then, he’s thrown zero touchdown passes and seven interceptions (62.0 passer rating).

This stretch has dropped Cousins’ season passer rating from 101.9 to 89.0 — now 19th among 33 passers with at least 200 attempts, and just a sliver ahead of Aaron Rodgers (88.9), who is universally regarded as washed.

The calls for Michael Penix Jr. are only going to grow louder, though the team has really painted itself into a Cousins-shaped box. According to Spotrac, Cousins carries a $65 million dead cap figure into next season, and even with the opt-out after next season, would still have $35 million in dead cap.

Starting a first-round quarterback on a rookie deal would help ease those cap issues, but the only thing worse than a quarterback like Cousins chewing up your cap space to play for you is a quarterback like Cousins chewing up your cap space to not play for you — which feels like a distinct possibility as of this moment.

Meanwhile, Darnold was absolutely brilliant. He’s now thrown 28 touchdown passes; his previous high for any two seasons combined is 36, and that’s well within range with four games to go.

The picks that felt so problematic with Darnold early have all but dried up; he’s thrown 11 touchdown passes since his last interception, and has gone four straight games without one.

The distribution of his quarterback ratings is downright hysterical on a game-to-game basis, by the way:

• 113.2
• 109.1
• 119.2
• 123.4
• 50.3 (in a win)
• 103.5
• 128.7
• 107.1
• 48.2 (in a win)
• 107.0
• 116.1
• 111.6
• 157.9 (!)

Big deal. So he has a clunker every now and then. You know what other far more established quarterback had games like that as well? Check your closets for a No. 8 jersey or your mail pile for some Kohl’s cash.

Based on the salary and expectations on Darnold coming into the season, you could make the 100ish rating games the outliers and it would still be an acceptable value.

Sammy is dealin’.

This Vikings offense is a wagon when operating at peak efficiency

The Vikings scored a season-high 42 points — their first 40-point game since 2019 and their highest total in a game since scoring 49 against the Giants in Week 16, 2015 — and there were even still moments that were a bit frustrating.

When the Vikings answered the first Falcons touchdown with a drive halted by back-to-back Darnold sacks? Frustrating.

When Will Reichard’s first field-goal attempt after returning hit the left upright, halting the momentum of a nine-play, 51-yard drive that chewed up 5:04 and would have given the Vikings a seven-point lead? You guessed it: frustrating.

But football is a frustrating game, and arguably nobody’s offense has been more geared to the second half of late than the Vikings’.

To be sure, the bulk of the Vikings’ offense was fabulous on Sunday, but it still felt like they have even another gear in them — and that’s terrifying.

Minnesota’s second-half offense was up to its old tricks

The team’s winning streak stretches back to a Week 9 win over the Colts, and if it feels like the offense needs a while to get going — well, that’s true.

The Vikings outscored the Falcons after the first quarter, 42-14, 28-11 after the break and 21-0 in the fourth quarter.

Since Week 9, the Vikings are averaging 15.8 points in second halves (fourth in the NFL) against just 8.8 in first halves (23rd, percentage points above the Falcons).

The Vikings are also averaging 214.5 total yards per game in second halves (second in the NFL) against just 153.8 in first halves (25th). Unsurprisingly, a lot of this has come on the passing side (152.3, tied for third) but the rushing side is still healthy (62.2, 12th) because a lot of teams are high on one and not the other based on how things have gone in the first halves of games (leading teams run, losing teams pass, etc.). In short, the Vikings have remained balanced because they usually play tight games.

So what does this mean?

Well to me, it means if you’re going to beat the Vikings you’ve probably got to put them away early (and nobody is doing that). And even if you do jump on them early, their second-half passing attack gives them a chance in just about any game.

But it also means to me that the team is going to be a tough out in the playoffs. Any team this battle-tested has already been through some big moments, and playoff games are almost always decided late — as the Vikings have shown lately, they are pretty good at handling.

The run defense….needs help

…but that might be as simple as getting Ivan Pace Jr. back. In the four games Pace has missed this season, the Vikings have allowed 109.0 rushing yards per game. In the nine games he’s played, they’ve allowed just 77.6.

Beyond that, Pace has an 85.6 PFF grade against the run. Of the 83 linebackers who’ve played at least 100 run snaps, that ranks 10th.

And while Pace’s return isn’t imminent, it is evident that he needs to be out there. Hopefully this is just a minimum stint on IR.

Atlanta’s offense needs to take more risks

This just might be my personal opinion, but no team should ever kick multiple field goals inside of 30 yards in a game. The second was less egregious — it was 4th and 8 on the 11 and made it a one-point game at 14-13 — but the Falcons were literally two yards away from tying the game (extra-point pending) and opted to kick with 13 seconds left in the first half and Minnesota returning the second-half kickoff.

Beyond that, why have all that invested in Cousins to not give him the opportunity there? Again, this might not be rooted in data — I’m the average fan, after all — but you’re 6-6 (well, 6-7 now) and even though that’s good enough to contend in the NFC South, your star is fading quickly with four straight losses.

Being a game out in a lousy division is already not that exciting, but based on recent trends, I think Raheem Morris should have felt more urgency. You may not have had the Vikings on the ropes per se, but the lack of a killer instinct grounded the Falcons on Sunday.

The Minnesota offense had Atlanta’s pass defense in hell — but it’s been there a while

Perhaps no play typified this more than Justin Jefferson’s second touchdown reception of the day. What a way to end a drought.

On this one, Darnold evades pressure and finds Jefferson for what looks like a fair catch on a punt. Dee Alford may as well have entered an Alford plea for how lost he look on tracking that ball.

(you’ll have to trust me or click to watch on YouTube as the NFL doesn’t want us to show it here)

For the season, the Falcons have allowed a passer rating of 105.5 (second-worst in the NFL).

It gets worse — so much worse.

On its four-game skid, Atlanta has permitted a passer rating of 138.9. That’s not just the worst mark in the NFL; it’s nearly 20 points clear of the next-worst team (Cincinnati, 120.5).

Yes, we can all see via the box score that Jefferson and Jordan Addison went for 100-plus with multiple touchdowns each. But man, the Falcons had been stinking up the joint for a few weeks and the Vikings took advantage.

…like good teams do.