After the 2023 season, many pundits and fans had come to some bold conclusions about the most recent rookie class of QBs.
SLOW YOUR ROLLS EVERYONE. It was (and still is) too early to proclaim these QBs busts or hits.
Through the 2024 season, there have been plenty of highs and lows for each of these 4 QBs, but at a certain point, the narratives of each seemed to point in a firm direction for each of these QBs mid-season:
CJ Stroud Weeks 1-6:
- 142/208 = 68.3% Completion % | 9th/36 QBs
- 1,577 Pass Yards | 6th
- 7.6 Yards Per Attempt | Tied 14th
- 10 Pass TDs | Tied 5th
- 4.1% Big Time Throw % | Tied 11th
- 4 INTs | 14th lowest %
- 2.8% Turnover Worthy Play % | Tied 14th Lowest
- 20.5% Pressure To Sack % | 19th
- 80.8 PFF Grade | 6th
- 78 Passing Grade | 6th
Narrative “Confirmed”: CJ Stroud is a top 10 QB
CJ Stroud picked up right where he left off in 2023 as a rookie. After all, he was putting up elite numbers while guiding the Texans to a 5-1 start to the year! Houston looks like it is on the precipice for a possible 1st round Bye in the playoffs and are certifiable contenders with the additions of Stefon Diggs at WR and Danielle Hunter at DE.
Anthony Richardson Weeks 1-8
- 59/133 = 44.4% Completion % | 39th/39 QBs
- 958 Pass Yards | 22nd (Per Game)
- 7.2 Yards Per Attempt | Tied 17th
- 4 Pass TDs | 32nd
- 7.2% Big Time Throw% | 2nd
- 7 INTs | 2nd highest %
- 5% Turnover Worthy Play% | 4th Highest %
- 16.4% Pressure to Sack % | 14th
- 48.7 PFF Grade | 36th
- 49.5 Passing Grade | 36th
- -1.115 EPA/Play | 31st
- 37.4% Success Rate | 35th
- Missed Weeks 5-6 + most of Week 4 with injury
- Benched after Week 8 for Joe Flacco who gave the team the “best chance to win”
Narrative “Confirmed”: Anthony Richardson is a bust
Sure he was 14th in Pressure to Sack % and 2nd in Big Time Throw Rate, showing some flashes. But after a 3 INT game vs the Packers and every 2024 game he completed he finished with under 50% completion percentage (which is the only stat that matters to some), the “bust” talk was growing louder.
Will Levis Weeks 1-6
- 83/125 Passing = 66.4% | 17th/36 QBs
- 699 Passing Yards | 27th (Per Game)
- 5.6 Yards Per Attempt | 35th
- 5 TDs | Tied 25th
- 1.5% Big Time Throw % | Tied 31st
- 7 INTs | 2nd Highest %
- 4.4% Turnover Worthy Play % | 8th Highest
- 26.3% Pressure To Sack % | 29th
- 44.9 PFF Grade | 35th
- 41.1 Passing Grade | 35th
- -0.241 EPA/Play | 34th
- 40.2% Success Rate | 32nd
- Injured early in Week 4, tried to play through it in Week 5 vs Colts before needing to recover for 3 weeks
- Titans only win of the year and only 30 point offensive performance in years was with backup Mason Rudolph at QB
Narrative “Confirmed”: Will Levis is a bust
There is forgettably bad play, and there is play so bad and hilarious, it worms its way into your memory no matter how much it disgusts you as a fan. That was Will Levis to start the season, with a run of meme-memorable moments that took the internet by storm. While his play didn’t result in any wins or job security, it certainly left an impression.
Bryce Young Weeks 1-2
- 31/56 Passing = 55.4% | 29th/33 QBs
- 245 Passing Yards | 32nd
- 4.4 Yards Per Attempt | 32nd
- 0 TDs | Tied Fewest
- 0% Big Time Throw % | Tied Last
- 3 INTs | 3rd Highest %
- 4.2% Turnover Worthy Play % | Tied 13th Highest
- 31.6% Pressure To Sack % | 32nd
- 30.1 PFF Grade | 33rd
- 31.8 Passing Grade | 33rd
- -0.514 EPA/Play | 33rd
- 29.2% Success Rate | 33rd
- Benched after Week 2, didn’t start Weeks 3-7 in favor of Andy Dalton
Narrative “Confirmed”: Bryce Young is the worst QB in the NFL and a bust
Unlike Levis, Young’s failings early in 2024 didn’t provide much if any entertainment value. His disastrous rookie year was followed up with 2 egregious starts to the year, where he was bottom 5 in all but 1 major stat listed above and last in 6 of them amongst NFL QBs to start the year. Gone was the confident Alabama QB, here was the bust. A 1st Overall pick being benched only 2 games into his second season was certainly unprecedented, and it appeared his time in Carolina might be coming an end quickly in new Head Coach Dave Canales’ era.
By Week 6-8 of the 2024 season, the writing was clearly on the wall for the 2023 Draft Class QBs. CJ Stroud was the only hit, emerging as a top 10 QB. Anthony Richardson and Will Levis still needed development as QBs and had either lost favor with their coaches or were being outplayed by their backups. Bryce Young was looking like one of the biggest busts in NFL history, and the Panthers trade up to acquire him would go down as one of the worst in history as well.
Case closed. Its official that 1.5 years (or less) is enough time to see if a QB has “it” and can be a franchise QB… right?
But then, something strange started to happen.
First, CJ Stroud started to not look like an elite QB as early as Week 7.
CJ Stroud Weeks 7-13
- 108/188 Passing = 57.4% | 36th/37 QBs
- 1,298 Passing Yards | 22nd (Per Game)
- 6.9 Yards Per Attempt | 24th
- 5 TDs | 35th in %
- 4.7% Big Time Throw % | 14th
- 5 INTs | 20th in %
- 2.5% Turnover Worthy Play % | Tied 16th Lowest %
- 22.9% Pressure To Sack % | Tied 25th
- 67.1 PFF Grade | Tied 29th
- 68.3 Passing Grade | 27th
- -0.041 EPA/Play | 29th
- 39.9% Success Rate | 32nd
- The Texans have gone 3-4 after their initial 5-1 stretch
- Lost to Packers, Jets, Lions, and Titans, while beating Jaguars without Trevor Lawrence most of the game by 3 and beat the Colts by 3. Only multiple score victory was against the Cowboys.
New Narrative: CJ Stroud hit a sophomore slump
CJ Stroud has had a rough 7 game stretch, ranking below average in 10 of the above metrics, and in the bottom 10 in 6 of them. While he certainly hasn’t had much help from his pass protectors (6th highest pressure % QB in this span at 40.7%), issues also seem to be arising between his play-caller Bobby Slowik as well. The Texans Offense just looks disjointed.
CJ looks less like an MVP caliber QB, and more like a midtier (or worse) starting QB in this recent stretch. Righting the ship will be crucial for the Texans contention hopes, both in 2024 and beyond.
Then Bryce Young returned to the starting lineup in Week 8 and began to showing more confidence, comfort, and poise that made him a top prospect in the 2023 Draft.
Bryce Young Weeks 8-13
- 102/169 Passing = 60.4% | 30th/36 QBs
- 1,082 Passing Yards | 22nd (Per Game)
- 6.4 Yards Per Attempt | Tied 28th
- 6 TDs | 25th in %
- 7.3% Big Time Throw % | 4th
- 3 INTs | 16th in %
- 2% Turnover Worthy Play % | 12th Lowest %
- 9.6% Pressure To Sack % | 5th
- 79.9 PFF Grade | 14th
- 80.2 Passing Grade | 12th
- +0.071 EPA/Play | 20th
- 44.2% Success Rate | 23rd
- Led 2 wins vs Saints and Giants, and lost by only 3 points to the Chiefs and Buccaneers
New Narrative: Bryce Young has bounced back
Bryce is starting to step into his own as an NFL QB, as over the last 5 weeks he has demonstrated the poise under pressure, the accuracy and arm talent, and the smart decision-making that was apparent on his Alabama tape. Perhaps this pairing with Dave Canales and the benching served him well to reset his confidence and get him back on the right track to be the Panthers potential franchise QB.
The 2 weeks later, Will Levis came back from his injury and began to hit some big plays that tantalized scouts previously while not having as many back-breaking turnovers.
Will Levis Weeks 10-13
- 71/115 Passing = 61.7% | 30th/36 QBs
- 960 Passing Yards | 15th (Per Game)
- 8.3 Yards Per Attempt | Tied 5th
- 7 TDs | 7th in %
- 8.9% Big Time Throw % | 2nd
- 2 INTs | 16th in %
- 3.2% Turnover Worthy Play % | Tied 15nd Lowest %
- 34.9% Pressure To Sack % | 34th
- 72.7 PFF Grade | 22nd
- 71.6 Passing Grade | 21st
- +0.011 EPA/Play | 26th
- 36% Success Rate | 34th
- He won his first full game as a starter in 2024 in an upset win against the Texans Week 12 with a game winning drive.
New Narrative: Will Levis has the Explosiveness of a Franchise QB, but needs more help
The big play potential of Will Levis has been on full display since returning to the lineup, 2nd in the NFL in Big Time Throw %, being top 5 in yards per attempt, and top 10 in TD% of his attempts. While he still needs work on his consistency (last in success rate, bottom 12 in completion% and EPA/play) as well as fix his pressure sense that has troubled him for years (3rd worst in the NFL in this span), the flashes of a franchise QB are there and he hasn’t been the reason the Titans are losing games as of late.
Not a perfect QB and still in need of polish, but the high upside is certainly flashing as of late.
Finally, the week after Levis returned to the lineup, Richardson was back as the Colts starting QB. Shane Steichen clarified that the reason he was benched was due to preparation issues, but that post-benching was putting in longer hours, asking more questions in meeting, and put in the work to earn the starting job again. And sure enough, Richardson has had a marked improvement in accuracy, poise, and footwork polish. These improvements paired with Steichen shifting to a scheme with more designed runs to tap into Richardson’s rushing skillset, with strong results.
Anthony Richardson Weeks 11-13
- 43/82 Passing = 52.4% | 35th/35 QBs
- 553 Passing Yards | 30th (Per Game)
- 6.7 Yards Per Attempt | Tied 24th
- 3 TDs | 20th in %
- 7.7% Big Time Throw % | 8th
- 2 INTs | Tied 25th in %
- 4.2% Turnover Worthy Play % | 29th Lowest %
- 5.6% Pressure To Sack % | 3rd
- 84.8 PFF Grade | 6th
- 82.9 Passing Grade | 6th
- +0.078 EPA/Play | 20th
- 46.2% Success Rate | 19th
- 29 Carries | 2nd
- 141 Yards | 2nd
- 4.9 Yards Per Carry | Tied 12th
- 3 TDs | 1st
- 3 Fumbles | Tied 3rd Most
- 3 Fumbles Recovered | Tied Most
- 2.76 Yards After Contact / Carry | 10th
- 6 Explosive Runs | Tied 1st
- 71 Rushing Grade | 9th
- 2 Game Winning Drives in 3 games vs Jets and Patriots, including the farthest since 2001
- His 3 Game Winning Drives are Tied 2nd in the NFL in 2024 despite only being in 8 4th Quarters
New Narrative: Anthony Richardson can be a Franchise QB, but needs more around him
Richardson has shown a lot of progress since returning to the starting lineup. His footwork has shown strides in his accuracy, he has been utilized more in the rushing offense with designed runs, and he has further reduced his pressure to sack %. Between being able to make special plays and a strong clutchness displayed the last 3 weeks, there is room for optimism with Richardson.
However there have been issues with his offense still, namely the Offensive Line allowing the 4th highest pressure % in the NFL since Week 11 and his targets dropping a league high 14% of their on target throws. The Offensive Line’s issues seem more tied to injuries, with only Quenton Nelson as the only starting lineman to play all 3 of those games and the Colts needing to rely on rookies to fill in the gaps of the starting unit.
Richardson is currently at 13.3 Average Depth of Target on the season, tying for the farthest ADOT in a season in recorded history and further decreasing the completion likelihood of his passes. If Steichen can continue to use Richardson as a designed runner and scheme up some more quick short passes, the offense could be more consistent. Still, Richardson’s special level of playmaking, ability to open up the playbook, and be a multidimensional threat to defenses has been a boon to the offense, enabling them to score over 20 points 2 times for the first time since Week 5.
The tides are changing in the 2023 QB Draft Class. Gone are the days of yestermonth when only CJ Stroud looked like a hit. Now everyone else is looking much improved, and Stroud is showing signs of regression.
Should the recent levels of play continue for this class in the final 5 weeks of the season, the narrative of this draft class could look very different heading into Year 3 of these players NFL journeys.
- Could CJ Stroud be a bust?
- Could Young, Richardson, or Levis be developing into franchise QBs if they get better help from their supporting casts?
Time will tell ultimately on their NFL fates, but the recent stretch of games goes to show how much things can change in the NFL in a short amount of time
