The Detroit Lions’ odds to win the division and the NFC’s top seed could skyrocket into the high 90s after Sunday. Here’s how.
Oh man, how good does this mini-bye feel? After the Detroit Lions played three games in 11 days—winning all three—they’ve had the entire weekend off. That will continue on Sunday, as Lions fans, players, and coaches can just ride the couch all day and watch the rest of Week 14 unfold.
That said, the results of Sunday’s game will certainly have an impact on the Lions’ future. The Lions have failed to create any space atop the NFC and NFC North thanks to the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles, who just seem to be incapable of losing right now.
Could this be the week that it finally happens, and the Lions inch closer to claiming the division and the NFC top seed?
Let’s take a look at our Week 14 rooting guide and what it could mean for the Lions’ postseason journey.
The only two games that really matter:
Falcons (6-6) at Vikings (10-2) — 1 p.m. ET — FOX
Root for: Falcons
The good news here is the Falcons are a desperate team, barely holding a lead over the 6-6 Buccaneers for the NFC South’s top spot. They need this game, so hopefully they can finally knock the Vikings off their five-game winning streak and give Detroit a huge extra-game lead in the division.
Panthers (3-9) at Eagles (10-2) — 1 p.m. ET — FOX
Who to root for: Panthers
This one feels a little more unlikely. That said, the Panthers are playing much better football right now than they were earlier in the season. Bryce Young looks capable, and in back-to-back weeks, they nearly pulled off monster upsets over the Chiefs and Buccaneers. This week, they’re 13.5-point underdogs, though. So don’t get your hope too high.
There are only two other teams who can mathematically catch the Lions: The Packers and the Commanders. Green Bay already lost this week, and Washington is on a bye. So that’s really it for the rooting guide. I could theoretically dig deep into tiebreakers and pick outcomes that would favor Detroit’s strength of victories, record in common games, etc., but we’re a bit too far away from that mattering yet.
You could make an argument to root for Bears over 49ers, because that could help knock San Francisco out of the playoff race prior to their Week 17 game against Detroit. Plus it also hurts Chicago’s draft spot.
But let’s just look at what the playoff situation would look like for Detroit with these two primary outcomes:
NFC North
- Lions: 12-1
- Vikings: 10-3
- Packers: 9-4
- Bears: Hopefully 5-8
In this scenario, the Lions would be on the verge of clinching the division. I don’t believe they’d have any Week 15 clinching scenarios, but they could certainly clinch before the Week 18 game between the Lions and Vikings. Per the New York Times playoff simulator, this outcome would give the Lions a 97 percent chance to win the division.
- Lions: 12-1
- Eagles: 10-3
3-16: Everyone else
With an Eagles and Vikings loss, the Lions’ odds to win the No. 1 seed would go from 83% to 95%, per the NYT. That’s a massive jump and would give Detroit some breathing room—which could be necessary given their tough remaining schedule.
