• RB Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings: Jones has been a focal point for the Vikings deep inside the red zone, ranking fourth in the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard line and seventh in carries inside the 5-yard line. This week, he faces a favorable matchup against a Falcons run defense that has allowed the fourth-worst rush success rate this season.
• WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: With Chris Godwin sidelined, Mike Evans has stepped up as the true alpha in the Buccaneers’ offense, commanding a target rate north of 30% on his routes. PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart highlights this week as one of the best matchups for Evans against a vulnerable Raiders secondary.
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Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
The Steelers have struggled to defend the run this season, particularly over the last six weeks. They rank fourth-worst in both EPA allowed per rush and yards allowed per carry while also posting the fifth-worst rush success rate allowed.
This sets up an excellent opportunity for Nick Chubb to thrive. Since returning from injury, Chubb has handled every red-zone carry for the Browns, giving him a clear role as the primary option to score from close range. Despite modest overall production, his consistent involvement in red-zone situations boosts his chances of finding the end zone.
With the Browns‘ offense performing as one of the higher-scoring units since Jameis Winston took over at quarterback, Chubb should see plenty of scoring opportunities. At nearly 2-1 odds, he presents strong value to find the end zone.
Jones has been a focal point for the Vikings deep inside the red zone, ranking fourth in the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard line and seventh in carries inside the 5-yard line. This week, he faces a favorable matchup against a Falcons run defense that has allowed the fourth-worst rush success rate this season.
Adding to Jones’ touchdown potential is his involvement as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. The Falcons have surrendered the most targets and receptions to opposing running backs, and Jones leads all RBs in targets inside the 10-yard line.
With the Vikings projected for one of the higher team totals this week and multiple paths for Jones to score from close range, he is one of the safest bets to find the end zone in this matchup.
The Raiders have been one of the more notable pass funnels in the NFL this season, making it significantly easier to pass against them than run. They rank top-five in success rate allowed against the run but bottom-five against the pass. As a result, opposing teams have passed nearly 10% more than expected over the last six weeks.
With Chris Godwin sidelined, Mike Evans has stepped up as the true alpha in the Buccaneers’ offense, commanding a target rate north of 30% on his routes. PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart highlights this week as one of the best matchups for Evans against a vulnerable Raiders secondary.
Evans remains a consistent threat to score on deep balls and remains a primary option in the Buccaneers‘ red-zone offense. With multiple avenues to find the end zone, Evans is in a prime spot to capitalize in what should be a productive game for the Buccaneers‘ passing attack.
