Lions coach Dan Campbell explained why he turned his fourth-down aggression up a notch against the Green Bay Packers.
It’s no surprise that the Detroit Lions were aggressive on fourth down against the Green Bay Packers in their 34-31 victory on Thursday night. Since Dan Campbell has led the team, Detroit has been one of the most aggressive teams on fourth down. In his first year, they ranked first in fourth down attempts, in 2022 they were third, in 2023 they were second, and they’re currently tied for sixth this year.
But Campbell made some choices on Thursday night that looked beyond aggressive and tip-toed into reckless.
The first, with the Lions holding a 24-21 lead toward the end of the third quarter, Campbell opted to go for it on a fourth-and-1 from their own 31-yard line. Detroit failed to convert. Four plays later, the Packers took the advantageous field position and turned it into a 28-24 lead to start the fourth quarter.
It may surprise you to learn that by one analytical model, this was the right move and by a fairly large margin. According to Ben Baldwin’s “Fourth Down Decision Bot,” Campbell’s decision increased Detroit’s win percentage by nearly six percent.
While Campbell is generally half-analytical, half-go by your gut, he had a strong explanation on why the Lions were so aggressive on fourth down on this particular day (attempting five conversions).
“Our offense, we knew they were going to need to carry the load,” Campbell said. “‘You need to carry a little bit more of the backpacks and such,’ and man, we did that, they did that.”
Detroit was severely shorthanded on defense in this game. They had to start three players who were added earlier in the week, and they lost their only remaining starter on the defensive line (Alim McNeill) to a head injury halfway through the contest. The Lions knew they needed the offense to carry, and they did. Those fourth down conversions helped extend drives, which allowed the Lions offense to run a total of 76 plays and own 36 minutes of time of possession. The Lions defense only needed to be out there for 45 plays and 24 minutes.
While it’s easy to point to the one failed conversion as costing the Lions seven points, don’t overlook the impact of all the other four conversions. Two of Detroit’s four touchdowns came on fourth down, and the last one—another controversial decision—directly led to the Lions winning the game.
Rather than kick a go-ahead, 39-yard field goal with about 40 seconds left—giving Packers quarterback Jordan Love a small chance to move downfield and tie the game up (without any timeouts)—the Lions opted to go for it one more time on fourth-and-one. David Montgomery picked up 7 yards, the Lions ran out the rest of the clock, and Jake Bates won the game with a 35-yard field goal.
“I just felt like we needed to end it on offense, and I did not want to give that ball back, and I believed we could get that,” Campbell said. “I believed we could convert, and I trust that o-line, I trust David (Montgomery), and they came through for us. It’s a hell of a call by (offensive coordinator) Ben (Johnson). I knew how I wanted to play this game, the team knew it, and everything in me told me, ‘Let’s finish this,’ and so we did.”
And that’s the other part of the equation. You can look at any fourth-down model, but those cannot measure trust. The Lions have a physically imposing offensive line and a brilliant offensive coordinator, and that’s what gives Campbell the—as Jared Goff put it—“stones” to make the gameday decisions he does.
“You know you’re taking a high level of risk,” Campbell said. “There is risk with it, but I felt like with our guys, it wouldn’t be as big of a risk as it may appear to be.”
