Breaking down two key matchups with a deep statistical dive from the Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions.
The Lions are riding an NFL-leading 10-game winning heater. After the Detroit Lions’ Week 9 victory over the Green Bay Packers, they now have won five out of the last six meetings in the series. Dan Campbell has had Matt LaFleur’s number. Meanwhile, the Packers haven’t lost since that last game against the Lions. The Packers have won three straight and are third in the NFL with a +14 points/game average scoring margin in that span (Lions are first at +22.3). The Packers seem to be getting hot at the right time, just like last season, as they cling onto divisional crown hope and head to the heart of the Lion’s den.
Let’s take a look at what the Lions are up against in their home rematch with the Green Bay Packing Company.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro.
Josh Jacobs Jingleheimer Schmidt
In that Week 9 clash with the Lions, Packers running back Josh Jacobs had by far his most efficient day as a Wisconsinite. Jacobs rushed only 13 times but for 95 rushing yards and an eye-popping 7.3 rushing yards per attempt. Unfortunately for Jacobs, the Lions went up 17-3 at halftime, and 24-3 early third quarter, and he had only three carries, on three separate drives, for 6 rushing yards in the second half. The Lions’ early lead, run defense adjustments, and most importantly LaFleur’s play-calling, took Jacobs out of the game.
Over the last three weeks, Jacobs has been PFF’s highest-graded running back with a 90.4 overall offensive grade. He has done his best to establish himself as the bell cow back that justified moving on from long-time Packers running back Aaron Jones. During that span, Jacobs has only averaged 3.6 yards/carry on 63 carries (second) but has generated five rushing touchdowns (first), 21 forced missed tackles (second), 16 rushing first downs (third), and six 10+ yard rushes (fifth). He’s also had at least four receptions and at least 50 receiving yards in two of the last three games. Jacobs has been doing it all while overcoming less than ideal run blocking.
While Jacobs is a headliner running back, overall, the Packers’ rushing offense has been above average but not quite a top-10 unit. The Packers rushing offense boasts a -0.02 EPA/rush (11th), a 40.6% success rate (14th), a 16.9% stuffed rate (19th), and 1.30 yards before contact/attempt (18th). Those are all marks that you would expect better metrics in given that LaFleur is a brilliant rushing offense play designer. A reason for the lower metrics could be the blocking.
PFF has the Packers with a 55.7 run blocking grade which ranks 28th in the NFL. Meanwhile, FTN has the Packers with 4.57 adjusted line yards which ranks 12th and only a 65% power success rate which ranks 19th. Three statistics stick out that best exemplify Jacobs going above and beyond to overcome the deficient blocking efforts. The Packers offense averages +1.0 rushing yards over expectation per attempt (third), 3.52 yards after contact per attempt (first), and 53 10+ yard runs (fourth) which is two more than the Lions even have. Jacobs has been able to churn out extra tough yards and spark their offense with consistent chain-moving explosive runs,
The Lions’ run defense is a top 5-10 unit by most metrics (yards/game allowed, EPA, DVOA, etc). They’re even the best at only allowing 2.36 yard after contact/attempt to counter the Packers being the best at it offensively.
However, the Lions biggest hurdle in their run defense is potential lapses due to the ongoing injuries they are dealing with. The most impactful of the latest wave of injuries will be not having DJ Reader being the fulcrum of the defense, as he’s coming off his best game as a Lion, and is playing like a head-bashing creature of middle earth. The likely return of Carlton Davis III is an underrated benefit for the run department, due to his unapologetic nature of swapping paint, but he’ll likely be joined by some new, and some still unfamiliar, faces on the defensive front. The Lions could have a majority of Za’Darius Smith, Ezekiel Turner, David Long Jr., Kwon Alexander, Jonah Williams, Myles Adams, Brodric Martin, and Jamal Adams playing snaps on Thursday night. None of those fresh Lion cubs were even on the team the last time these two teams played in Week 9.
Lack of continuity could lead to assignment and alignment issues in their team efforts against the ground. Aaron Glenn and his defensive assistants getting everyone up to speed and on the same page will be critical to preventing Jacobs from taking over with the rock in his hands. Key defensive players like Alim McNeill, especially with their interior offensive line, Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, and Kerby Joseph will need to step up and make impact plays to offset any miscues building a wall against Jacobs and the Green Bay ground game.
Goff in the Danger Zone
In Year 1, Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has stepped in and been an improvement from previous defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Hafley’s college background and NFL background under Robert Saleh, Mike Pettine, and Greg Schiano has led to him running a zone-based defense. The Packers have produced a top 13 defense in each of points, yards, EPA, and DVOA while running Cover 2 on 23% of their snaps (fourth highest rate) and Cover 3 on 32% of their snaps (10th highest rate). That’s 55% of their coverage snaps running either Cover 2 or Cover 3 this year.
When running Cover 2 (Per FTN), with two-high safeties, the Packers have allowed a 76.0% completion percentage (22nd), 7.4 yards/play (22nd), a 59% Success Rate (28th), +0.08 EPA/Dropback (13th), 4.6 YAC/Att (27th), and only 13.0% tight coverage rate (26th). So despite majoring in Cover 2, they haven’t been successful when defending passes with that coverage, although it’s part of their repertoire that they can throw at opposing offense that has seen success overall. Being able to diversify their coverage looks to keep offenses on their toes.
When running Cover 3, with a single-high post safety (usually Xavier McKinney), the Packers have allowed a 70.6% completion percentage (14th), 7.6 yards/play (13th), a 52.3% success rate (20th), a -0.03 EPA/Dropback (seventh), a lowly 2.9 YAC/Att (3rd), and a 22.9% tight coverage rate (ninth). They also have four interceptions, which is tied with the Lions and Steelers for the league-lead. However the Lions have faced half the number of dropbacks in Cover 3. There’s a reason the Packers run Cover 3 a third of their defensive snaps: their personnel has done a really good job adjusting to it under Hafley, as it’s been one of their strong suits this season—particularly with McKinney’s ability to cover a lot of the field by patrolling as the deep safety.
It’s well documented that, while Goff performs well against both man coverage and zone coverage defense, he plays at an elite level versus man while he is above average against zone. One thing in Goff’s favor is the Lion’s recent schedule has provided opponents who also specialize in zone defenses as a nice ramp up for the Packers mixed zone defense.
On 61 pass attempts against Cover 2 this season, Goff has completed 77% of his passed (seventh) for 525 passing yards, one passing touchdown, two interceptions, and 8.6 yards/attempt (seventh). Analytically, he has a 57.4% success rate against Cover 2 (seventh), a +0.25 EPA/Dropback (11th), and a 16.6% DVOA (11th). He’s been able to have success when teams go zone, with those two high safeties, by attacking in the intermediate part of the field. The Lions should be able to feast on the ground when two safeties are back but Goff will need to hit a few key strikes along the sidelines by dropping it in the honeyhole between the cornerback and the safety.
On 66 pass attempts against Cover 3, Goff has completed 72.7% (20th) for 621 passing yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and 9.4 yards/attempt (10th). Also against Cover 3, he has only a 45.5% success rate (27th), a 0.32 EPA/dropback (eighth), and a 4.7% DVOA (19th). There lies the issue: Goff continues to make plays against Cover 3, however he isn’t as efficient in moving the Lions offense consistently and puts the ball in harm’s way at a higher rate.
The Lions should be able to run the ball, the Packers pass rush shouldn’t be a major factor as their pass rush rate has continually regressed as the season progressed. Even with Taylor Decker’s absence, the Lions should be okay, and their passing attack should still shred man coverage opportunities as always. All that still might not be enough.
This is a talented Packers team, the attrition on the Lions’ defense could lead to them needing consistent points, and they’re going to need Jared Goff to put the team on his back in front of his Motor City maniacs. A Thursday night, standalone primetime divisional game is a big spotlight for Goff to step up and continue to prove naysayers wrong. For the Lions to win, they’ll need him to face those 15-20 dropbacks of Cover 2 and Cover 3 head-on and make the Packers pay. As he’s continued to prove throughout his Lions career, I believe he’s up for the challenge in sending Matt LaFleur’s team packing.
