Lions vs. Packers preview, score prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions (11-1) and Green Bay Packers (9-3) face off Thursday night in a huge matchup for both teams. If the Lions win, they’ll remain the top team in the NFC for another week, while basically eliminating the Packers from NFC North contention. If the Packers win, they’re right back into the thick of things in the division, and they’ll send a message to the rest of the NFC.

Let’s take a look at which team has the overall advantage in our On Paper preview and prediction.

Lions pass offense (9th in DVOA) vs. Packers pass defense (12th)

While the Lions passing offense hasn’t been as explosive in recent weeks, they remain an incredibly efficient unit. In the past 10 games, they’ve only been held below a 100 paser rating twice.

For the season, here’s where the Lions’ passing offense ranks:

• 2nd in Y/A (8.7)
• 2nd in passer rating (110.4)
• 4th in dropback EPA (0.234)
• 1st in dropback success rate (52.1%)
• 2nd in touchdown percentage (6.8%)
• 22nd in interception percentage (2.6%)

Obviously, that last stat is highly influence by Jared Goff’s five interception performance against the Texans. Otherwise, Goff has thrown just four interceptions in the other 11 contests.

Oddly, the offensive line does not look great by most pass protection metrics. The team ranks t-15th in PFF pass blocking grade (70.2), ninth in ESPN’s pass block win rate (65%), 18th in pressure percentage allowed (35.1%), and 16th in sack percentage (6.4%). With no Taylor Decker again this week, it’s worth wondering if Detroit can protect Jared Goff all game.

This is not a very consistent pass defense. While some of these numbers are greatly impacted by game situation—last week, the Dolphins’ pass offense numbers were largely inflated by garbage time—I’m not still convinced this is a great pass defense.

Overall, the Packers rank:

• 17th in Y/A (7.3)
• 15th in passer rating (90.2)
• 9th in dropback EPA (0.000)
• 31st in dropback success rate (50.6%)
• 14th in touchdown percentage (4.1%)
• 9th in interception percentage (2.8%)

In past columns, I’ve pondered if Detroit’s passing defense was for real or being artificially inflated by interceptions. That concern is far more legit with this Packers defense. The most eye-popping number is that 31st ranking in success rate going up against the Lions’ first-ranked success rate. That could be a huge advantage on Thursday night.

As for the Lions’ pass blocking mediocrity, the Packers are not currently built to exploit that. They rank just 27th in pass rush win rate, 23rd in PFF pass rush grade, 25th in pressure percentage, and 14th in sack percentage.

Player to watch: Xavier McKinney. While the Lions don’t take a ton of deep shot, they’ll have the option to in this matchup after Jameson Williams missed the previous Packers game. McKinney is going to be a tough guy to beat, though, as he has a 90.6 PFF coverage grade and seven interceptions.

Advantage: Lions +2. I think this is a matchup where the Lions are just going to take what the Packers give them and methodically drive down the field.

Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Packers run defense (12th)

The Lions remain steadily a top-five unit when it comes to their rushing attack. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery remain easily the top running back duo on the league, with a combined 1,693 rushing yards, 5.15 yards per carry, and 21 rushing touchdowns.

Their success is a perfect harmony of one of the best run blocking units (12th in run block win rate, third in PFF grade, first in adjusted line yards), and stellar backs (Montgomery and Gibbs rank 11th and 12th in yards after contact per rush).

Particularly lethal is the right side of Detroit’s offensive line.

• Center Frank Ragnow: 92.0 run block grade (2nd)
• Right guard Kevin Zeitler: 88.4 run block grade (3rd)
• Right tackle Penei Sewell: 91.0 run block grade (2nd)

The Packers’ rush defense is certainly better than in previous years, and they’re coming off two phenomenal performances. They have only given up over 150 yards in a single game, and that was largely based on Caleb Williams’ mobility (nine carries, 70 yards).

For the season, the Packers rank seven in yards per carry allowed (4.2), 13th in rush EPA (-0.106), 13th in success rate, and 13th in stuffed rate (18.1%).

In other words, this is an above average unit, but not a dominant one.

Player to watch: Kenny Clark. Even if his PFF grades don’t show it (51.4 run defense), Clark is a monster in the middle of that Packers defense. He’s been more disruptive as a pass rusher his entire career, but he’s capable of producing chaos no matter the play call.

Advantage: Lions +1. In the last matchup, the Lions were relatively successful. If you take away Goff’s kneel downs and a hugely unsuccessful Kalif Raymond run, the Lions managed 138 rushing yards on just 28 carries (4.9 YPC). I would not be surprised to see something similar this week.

Packers pass offense (2nd) vs. Lions pass defense (1st)

*Malik Willis games

This matchup may decide the game. While the Packers haven’t been producing a ton of yardage through the air (234.3 YPG, eighth), they’ve been very, very efficient. Here are their season-long rankings:

• 5th in Y/A (8.3)
• 9th in passer rating (99.3)
• 6th in dropback EPA (0.197)
• 15th in dropback success rate (47.8%)
• 4th in touchdown percentage (6.6%)
• 30th in interception percentage (3.2%)

Since the Lions game, Jordan Love looks healthier and better. In those three games, here’s Love’s statline:

47-of-68 (69.1%) for 698 yards (10.3 Y/A), 5 TDs, 1 INT, 120.8 passer rating. And if you look at the chart, those are against some solid pass defenses.

Is a three-game sample enough to believe this is how Love will play the rest of the season? It’s hard to know, but the fact that they did it against three really good defenses is enough to get my attention.

The team is also fantastic as a pass blocking unit, ranking first in PFF grade (83.2), eighth in pass block win rate (66%), ninth in pressure rate (29.9%), and second in sack rate (4.1%).

The Lions finally allowed a red cell in the QB rating allowed column after pitching a near-perfect game through 11 weeks. While the injuries in the front seven may have played a small role in terms of a lack of pressure against the Bears, it was also an oddly poor game from the secondary. That said, they were missing their top cornerback Carlton Davis III, who will be back on Thursday—along with the option to play Emmanuel Moseley, as well.

For the season, the Lions remain a very strong pass defense unit.

• 7th in Y/A (6.7)
• 1st in passer rating (74.9)
• 2nd in dropback EPA (-0.093)
• 8th dropback success rate (43.1%)
• 1st in touchdown percentage (2.3%)
• 4th in interception percentage (3.2%)

The question is how much the injury attrition will impact this unit. With no Josh Paschal, DJ Reader, Levi Onwuzurike, the Lions’ already mediocre pass rush (12th in pressure percentage) will be negatively impacted. But it’s hard to know how much the coverage team will be impacted by the injuries. The secondary is healthy, but the linebacking corps—which had been excellent with Alex Anzalone (72.2 coverage grade and Malcolm Rodriguez (65.4)—could be an area of weakness considering the Lions will be playing several new players there.

Player to watch: Tucker Kraft. Speaking on that linebacker attrition, Kraft could be the biggest benefactor. He’s currently third on the team in receiving yards (480) and t-first on touchdowns (six).

Advantage: Draw. This is the biggest strength vs. strength matchup, and I certainly feel better about it with Davis back with Detroit combined with their dynamic safety duo. I do worry about Detroit’s ability to stop the short, underneath stuff, but Love has occasionally lacked the discipline to make those throws over taking a deep shot. If Love gets extra risky on Thursday night, this could tilt in Detroit’s favor.

Packers run offense (6th) vs. Lions run defense (4th)

*Malik Willis games

Green Bay has produced 100+ rushing yards in all but two games this year, and have averaged at least 4.2 yards per carry in nine of 11 games. While the Packers didn’t want to let Aaron Jones, they’ve done a damn good job in replacing him with Josh Jacobs.

The Packers haven’t been a great run-blocking team, ranking 22nd in run block win rate and 28th in PFF grade. But Jacobs has been stellar creating yards on his own. He’s second in the NFL in broken tackles (26), second in yards after contact (563) and eighth in yards after contract per carry (2.5).

Overall, the Packers rank eighth in yards per carry (4.8), ninth in rush EPA (-0.042), but only 16th in success rate (39.2%).

I don’t know what to do in this section, to be honest. The Lions run defense has been on a heater these past four weeks, but they are going to be completely decimated when it comes to personnel this week. On the defensive line, no DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, or Levi Onwuzurike—who are all fantastic run defenders. At the linebacker position, no Alex Anzalone, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Jalen Reeves-Maybin.

We’re going to see the likes of Myles Adams, Kwon Alexander, Jonah Williams, Jamal Adams, Ezekiel Turner, David Long, Brodric Martin, and Al-Quadin Muhammad fill the voids, and I just have no idea how those players are going to perform. It’s a complete mystery, but I obviously don’t feel great about all of those missing pieces.

So I’m just going to skip out on the data here, because I’m not sure any of it is relevant.

Player to watch: Brodric Martin. The second year nose tackle has not been great in his limited NFL action, but I suppose he and Pat O’Connor are going to take Reader’s workload this week. Martin has played 30 total snaps, but could nearly double that on Thursday night.

Advantage: Packers +2. There’s no method to my madness here. I think the Packers have a really good run offense and they’re going to really test this defense right where they’re vulnerable. It certainly doesn’t help that Jacobs ran for 89 yards on 10 carries in the first half of the Week 9 matchup against the Lions (he only had three second-half carries).

The Lions run defense has improved largely since, but being shorthanded this week makes this one really tough to predict.

Last week’s prediction

My gut told me it was going to be a close game vs. the Bears, but the numbers said otherwise. Of course, the whole reason these previews are called “On Paper” is because sometimes the game doesn’t play out the way the numbers suggest they should. So my 34-17 prediction was not very close to the 23-20 final. Still, On Paper is 11-1 in straight-up predictions, but has now dropped to 8-4 against the spread.

In the comment section, we had a few really close predictions, but Rames and Galionspride were the closest, missing the final score by just a single point with their 24-20 predictions. Here’s your prize and—oh no, another Lions whiteboard photo leak!

This week’s prediction

The Lions come out with a +1 advantage, but my confidence level is even lower than that. Green Bay could run all over Detroit’s defense on Thursday night, and that wouldn’t surprise me a bit. If that happens, the Lions could be in a world of trouble. They’ll need the offense to be nearly perfect in this game, and while I have the Lions offense with the edge in both matchups, it’s only slight advantages.

Still, I’m going to stick with the numbers here and go Lions 27, Packers 26.