New Y2K just dropped
Saquon Barkley is probably not going to win MVP. Let us get that out of the way. Josh Allen will likely win it, and Barkley will win Offensive Player of the Year as a consolation prize. This does not mean that Barkley should not win it, it’s just the reality of the award now. A non-QB has not won MVP since 2012, and in the past 20 seasons a non-QB has won it only three times. MVP is now for QBs.
But those times when a non-QB won are why Barkley could win MVP. They’ve all been running backs, and when a RB has won MVP, they met one of two criteria, and Barkley is on track to meet one of them.
- In 2005 Shaun Alexander won MVP when he tied the NFL record for rushing TDs with 27.
- In 2006 LaDanian Tomlinson won MVP he set the NFL record for rushing TDs with 28.
- In 2012 Adrian Peterson won MVP when he ran for 2097 yards, 2nd most all time, 6 short of setting the record.
Barkley isn’t going to come close to setting the TD record, no running back that plays with Jalen Hurts could. But Barkley is on pace for a record breaking 2124 rushing yards, besting Eric Dickerson’s 2105 in 1984.
But even with 2000 yards, Barkley wouldn’t have MVP locked up. A running back has cracked 2000 yards eight times, and only half of them, Pederson in 2012, Terrell Davis in 1998, Barry Sanders in 1997, and OJ Simpson in 1973 were MVPs. Eric Dickerson wasn’t in 1984 with the record, Jamal Lewis wasn’t in 2003, Derrick Henry wasn’t in 2020, and Chris Johnson wasn’t in 2009.
The RB MVPs also had QB MVP candidates who had either a down season or didn’t statistically dominate the league. In 2005 the runner up was Payton Manning, who went from 4557 yards and 49 TDs in 2004 when he won his second straight MVP to 3747 yards and 28 TDs. In 2006 the runners up were Drew Brees, who led the league in yards in his first season with the Saints, and Manning, who led the league in TDs with just 31. In 2012 the runner up was, once again, Manning, who returned from injury with the Broncos but didn’t led the league in yards or TDs, those honors went to Brees but the Saints were 7-9.
Josh Allen, meanwhile, will not come close to leading the league in passing yards, or TDs this season. He is 14th in passing yards, 646 behind league leader Joe Burrow, and 6th in TDs, 10 behind Burrow.
Barkley is also on pace to set the yards from scrimmage record, but voters don’t seem to care about that. Chris Johnson set it in 2009 and Christian McCaffrey had the 3rd greatest season in 2019, but neither received a single MVP vote. It’s Rushing Yards: 2k or bust.
The ingredients for Barkley to win are there. He needs 501 yards in 5 games to hit 2000, and his competition, while being a worthy winner if he does win it, is not having the eye popping numbers that MVP winners usually have.
At his current rate though, Barkley would have 1999 yards in a 16 game season, will voters punish him for having an extra game to reach an arbitrary threshold? Will he even get the extra game? Will he even need it?
Barkley could break 2000 yards before the final game of the season. The next four games are against some weak run defenses. The Panthers give up the most rushing yards per game, which is not entirely a product of getting run on a lot in the 4th quarter, they have the 6th most rushing yards per attempt against. The Cowboys give up the 2nd most rushing yards per game, and the 3rd worst rushing yards per attempt rate. And the Commanders give up the 6th most yards per game, and are tied with the Panthers for 6th in yards per attempt. By the time the final game of the season comes around, the Eagles could have the 1 seed in the NFC locked up, Detroit’s remaining schedule is not easy: they still have to face the Packers and Vikings again, and the Bills, though all of those games are at home. Perhaps Barkley never sees the field in Week 18.
But if it does come down to Week 18 being the game to break 2000 yards… that could be a fun one. The Eagles will host the Giants. Barkley will be well motivated. And the Giants defense should be able to help their former teammate. The Giants give up the 4th most rushing yards per game, and with the worst rushing yards per attempt against. And that was accomplished with Dexter Lawrence, who went on IR on Tuesday. Saquon Barkley could be on the doorstep of a 2000 yard season, and to get it he might need to run through his former team, one that he ran for 176 yards against on just 17 carries. Maybe the NFL is scripted.
A 2000 yard season won’t lock up the MVP for Barkley, but a non-2000 yard season will lock him out.
