Can the Giants put together a good offensive performance?
The 2-10 New York Giants face the 4-8 New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Giants are 4.5-point runderdogswith a tantalizing 40.5-point Over/Under. It’s fair to ask — is this the last game the Giants have a realistic shot to win?
The Giants received a truncated BYE week after losing 27-20 to Dallas last Thursday on Thanksgiving. New York has now lost seven consecutive games. The Saints had their own seven-game losing streak after starting the season with two wins. New Orleans fired head coach Dennis Allen, promoted special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi to interim head coach, and won two consecutive games before losing to the Rams, 21-14, last week.
Can the Giants offense, with Drew Lock starting a second consecutive game at quarterback, muster a winning performance?
Statistics
The Saints’ defense allows 23.4 points per game, 19th in the NFL. They surrender the third-most yards in the league (385.1 yards per game) and have allowed 411 YPG over the last three games (Rams, Browns, Falcons). They struggle against the pass, allowing 249.1 passing yards per game, which ranks them 29th in the league. They allow 136 rushing yards per game, ranking them 26th in the league.
New Orleans is tied with the Giants for the 11th-best red zone conversion rate, allowing a touchdown on 51.35% of opportunities. They’re 13th in third-down conversion rate, allowing a conversion on 36.88% of opportunities; the Giants are 14th with a 36.91% rate.
Defensive coordinator Joe Woods blitzes at a 20.3% rate, which ranks in the bottom third of the league. They pressure the quarterback at a 20.5% rate. Edge Carl Granderson leads the team with 42 pressures. Chase Young is directly behind him with 41. Veteran Cameron Jordan has just 16 on the season.
Defensive linemen Bryan Breese and Nathan Shephard have 24 and 15, respectively, but Breese leads the team with 6.5 sacks. Granderson has 4.5, cornerback Alontae Taylor has four, with nine pressures of his own. Young has 3.5 sacks, and defensive end Payton Turner has two. The defense has 12 interceptions this season with 11 forced fumbles and ZERO fumble recoveries.
Veteran linebacker Demario Davis leads the team with 82 tackles. Davis and Pete Werner form a hard-hitting — smart — linebacking tandem. Former Chiefs’ LB Willie Gay Jr. is the team’s third linebacker but did not record a defensive snap last week.
The Saints have a solid defensive line with some depth. Breese and Shephard provide pass-rushing juice, and the former is coming into his own as a professional. Khalen Saunders and John Ridgeway join them.
The Saints have suffered several key injuries, mostly on the offense, but the defense is without starting cornerback Paulson Adebo, who had three picks on the season. Safety Tyrann Mathieu left the Rams game with a shoulder injury; 2023 fifth-round pick Jordon Howden relieved the veteran, who is joined by another veteran, Will Harris, at safety. EDGE rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon is also on IR with an Achilles injury.
New Orleans employs a lot of Cover-1 and Cover-3 (middle of the field closed looks). They ran Cover-2 at a 23.3% rate and quarters at a 14.7% rate, according to Cody Alexander’s MatchQuarters. The only coverage they receive a positive EPA from is quarters and Cover-0, which they only run at a 3.6% rate.
Game plan
The Saints do a good job disguising their coverages when they run Cover-3 pre to post-snap. They rank top-10 in stunt rate and rely on four-man rush stunts in third-and-five-plus situations. The Giants’ offensive line must be weary of the twists upfront. The reliance on the twist — if initially blocked up well — can allow Drew Lock to step up and away from the rush. Lock has a penchant for bailing if there’s no containment or spy; he led the Giants with 57 rushing yards against the Cowboys, and New Orleans runs man coverage at a 32.8% rate, just ahead of the Giants, who run it at a 32.3% rate.
New York should rely on the ground game and have Lock take shots to Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton against a beat up secondary. The trade of Marshon Lattimore left the Saints with new faces. Taylor has struggled in coverage, and Kool-Aid McKinstry had a slow start to the season; Nabers should win that matchup in one-on-one man situations, while Ugo Amadi was adequate in his six appearances this season as a slot defender.
New York should still feature the tight end position sans Theo Johnson with Daniel Bellinger. Condensed formations with Bellinger clearing out space for Nabers or Wan’Dale Robinson underneath allows Brian Daboll to attack the middle of the field with a quick game. Quick half-field concepts for Lock to make one-read and attack a high-low with Robinson off a pivot will create separation against man coverage.
The Giants should also get Lock on the move with bootlegs and move the pocket plays. The Giants haven’t successfully run a screen in a few weeks; the Saints don’t blitz as frequently as other teams, but a well-timed HB-slip screen to Tyrone Tracy Jr. could keep the defense honest. New York should look to run HB draws on third-and-five when New Orleans decided to twist up front, especially beyond the Giants’ own 45-yard line, where going for it on fourth becomes an option.
Lock attempted three throws over 20 yards outside the numbers against Dallas. None of them were completed, but all three were catchable; one hit Slayton in the hands, the other was caught by Slayton but a second foot did not come down in bounds, and the third was a miscommunication on what appeared to be a back-shoulder attempt by the quarterback.
The Giants have nothing to lose. Suppose Lock can confirm single-high—whether man or zone coverage—he should be encouraged to let it rip deep and test the young secondary of the Saints to back the defense up and perhaps open up the rushing attack that can allow the play-action bootlegs to have success. I hope to see this aggressive approach early if the defensive structure permits.
Final thoughts
This is a winnable game for the Giants. The Saints have lost several key offensive pieces this season and are a struggling franchise with an interim coach. The Giants — well, we all unfortunately know their situation. Although New York could steal a win here — and they’re not allergic to winning on the road — I’m picking New Orleans to control the clock and defeat the Giants.
