What’s changed with the Packers since Week 9? We asked @AcmePackingCo about the upcoming “Thursday Night Football” matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
More Detroit Lions football is right around the corner, and we would never pass up the opportunity to get some intel from the opponent’s perspective. We called on Justis Mosqueda to give us some insight into the Green Bay Packers, what a healthy—and productive—Jordan Love means for their offense this time around, and how the rest of this Packers team is shaping up ahead of this all-important Week 14 matchup.
The first time these two teams met, a lot of factors were in play that won’t have an impact on this week’s game. Jordan Love isn’t nursing a groin injury and Ford Field has a dome, so no inclement weather this time around.
What’s been the most notable development between Green Bay’s offense from Week 9 and now?
On the offensive side, the biggest difference is probably the health of Jordan Love and the play of running back Josh Jacobs. Love looks like he’s finally fully back to health. There was a play last week where he beat an all-out blitz with his legs and was able to throw to Jayden Reed on the move for an explosive play in the red zone. That certainly wasn’t happening earlier on in the season. Next Gen Stats has Josh Jacobs as the top player in terms of broken tackles the last couple of weeks, despite him not putting up crazy production. He’s really helping steady the offense. The other thing is that Josh Myers, the Packers’ starting center, is highly likely to play in this one. Last time around, he was injured.
From Next Gen Stats, rookies have accounted for 15.8% of the Packers defensive snaps this season, the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.
What sort of growth (if any) have you seen from the likes of Javon Bullard, Evan Williams, and Edgerrin Cooper (among others) over the past month?
Bullard and Williams are still moving around. Sometimes, Bullard is the full-time slot. Other times, Bullard is the starting safety who moves into the slot on nickel downs, allowing Williams to come off the bench as the starting safety in nickel sets. They really seem to want to get everyone involved. Both have been playing well, but Cooper has been dealing with a hamstring issue that’s had him sidelined for a couple of weeks. If Cooper doesn’t have some quick turnaround, it’ll be Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie and Eric Wilson at the linebacker level in this one. According to NGS and PFF, around 170 to 250 yards of Miami’s pass production last week came because of the linebackers in coverage… that’s not great.
Another pull from Next Gen Stats, the Packers are 32-10 since 2019, the beginning of Matt LaFleur’s coaching stint in Green Bay, in Week 10 or later. Only the Chiefs (33-9) have a better record in Week 10 or later since 2019.
What about LaFleur’s approach has his team so prepared for this crucial part of the schedule, and do you get the sense that this winning trend will continue for the 2024 Packers?
Honestly, I think he’d tell you it was because of how light their preseason practices are. The reason why the Packers tinker with their lineups so much in-season, which sometimes does lead to slow starts, is because they basically punt on the summer. It’s not surprising to me at all that they play their best ball at the end of the season. For example, cornerback Eric Stokes is currently battling to be the third outside cornerback on the team right now. The Packers basically gave him every outside cornerback rep with the first-team defense throughout the entire offseason. The lack of competition in the summer probably leads to healthier bodies in the winter if that makes any sense. LaFleur has been very progressive with his thoughts on player workloads, which he’s said he took from Sean McVay.
By a couple of different metrics, the Packers pass rush isn’t generating much pressure–they rank 25th in NFL Pro’s QB pressure rate (31%) and 27th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate (35%).
What’s been the issue with the Packers getting push up front, and is this your biggest concern with the defense at this point?
I would not be surprised at all if the Packers take a first-round edge rusher again. Lukas Van Ness has been playing a little better as of lately, but there’s been a decline in the play of Rashan Gary, Devonte Wyatt, Kenny Clark and Kingsley Enagbare all while the younger players like LVN [Lukas Van Ness] haven’t developed. We were promised a more aggressive defensive line and we just haven’t seen the results. The team often has to run simulated pressures (bringing a pass rusher from depth and dropping a defensive lineman) or just straight up blitzes to get after the quarterback. I don’t think this is the way they want to play football ideally, but it’s what they have to do to win.
Last time around you said the Packers would have a better shot in Round 2 of this matchup. Do you still feel that way heading into Thursday’s matchup, and why?
I sure do! Getting back Jaire Alexander, Evan Williams and Josh Myers in the lineup plus having a healthier Jordan Love is a great start. The Lions’ injuries stacking up is also interesting from a matchup standpoint. Last time, it felt like you guys caught us at a terrible time, just in terms of how injuries were unfolding. Now, it seems like the reverse. I’m still leaning Lions here but I do feel better about it this time around.
