A look at the Lions’ playoff, NFC North, and first-round bye odds—and how Thursday’s Packers game will impact them.
We’ve officially reached the home stretch of the Detroit Lions’ regular season. Sitting with a franchise record of 11-1 through 13 weeks, you’d think the vibes in Detroit would be immaculate. But a string of injuries and an impossibly tight division has some feeling a little nervous heading into the Lions’ final five games. It certainly doesn’t help that their remaining schedule is widely considered one of the toughest in the league (third-toughest by overall record and DVOA—although the Packers and Vikings both have just as tough of a schedule).
But let’s look at what some of the probability NFL playoff models have to say about the Lions’ chances of making the playoffs, winning the division, and securing the NFC’s top seed and a first-round bye.
Detroit Lions’ playoff odds
NYT: >99%
DVOA: 100%
ESPN: >99%
Washington Post: >99%
The Lions narrowly missed out on clinching the playoffs last week. It’s just a matter of time before they do. It would not only take an epic collapse from Detroit to miss the playoffs, but a couple of extremely mediocre NFC teams would have to make a run. It’s not even worth bothering going down that road, because it’s not happening.
Lions odds to win NFC North
NYT: 87%
DVOA: 90.2%
ESPN: 85%
Washington Post: 92%
This may surprise you, but Detroit’s odds to win the division are still very, very high. As a reminder, here are the current divisional standings:
- Lions: 11-1
- Vikings: 10-2
- Packers: 9-3
- Bears: sad
The Lions still have games remaining against both the Vikings and the Packers, but they have already beaten both teams on the road. Of the two teams, the Vikings (6-10%) have the better odds to win the division in all four models than the Packers (2-5%).
Lions’ odds to win the NFC’s No. 1 seed
NYT: 67%
DVOA: 73.6%
ESPN: 68%
Washington Post: 66%
All the models—except for DVOA—give the Lions about a two-thirds chance of finishing the season with a first-round playoff bye. The biggest challenger, by far, is the 10-2 Philadelphia Eagles. They have anywhere between a 20 and 31 percent chance of being the NFC’s top seed, according to these four models. The only other team with significant chances at the top seed is the Vikings, whose odds for the No. 1 seed sit between 3 and 6 percent.
How does Thursday’s game vs. Packers impact Lions’ playoff odds?
The New York Times’ model allows you to see playoff odds change depending on the outcome of future games.
Thursday’s game between the Packers and Lions obviously carries huge implications for both teams. A Lions victory nearly eliminates any chance of the Packers winning the division (<1%). While a Lions loss shot puts Green Bay’s chances at the division to about 12% (currently at 5%).
Here’s how Thursday’s results impact the Lions.
Lions win:
- 100% chance at playoffs
- 94% chance to win the division
- 83% chance at the NFC No. 1 seed
Lions lose:
- 99+% chance at playoffs
- 74% chance to win the division
- 40% chance at the NFC No. 1 seed
While Detroit’s chances to win the division will remain very high despite Thursday’s outcome, a loss to the Packers would cut the Lions’ odds at a first-round bye in half.
