It’s Thanksgiving weekend and that means the NFL and the Minnesota Vikings are heading to the final stretch of the season. The league is beginning to stratify into playoff teams and those looking toward next season. In the NFC, there are a few on the bubble in-between, and with six weeks left in the regular season a lot can and will change.

But with the Vikings sitting at a 98% chance to make the playoffs, it’s not too early to look into the NFC playoff situation, the contenders and the pretenders, and how things may unfold.

Who’s Out

First, let’s look at teams with little-to-no chance of making the playoffs and eliminate them from further consideration. These teams include:

The 49ers being on this list may sound wrong or premature, especially since they’re just a game or two out of first place in their division, but it isn’t. The 9ers are 5-6 and face the Bills on the road next week, followed by the Bears, Rams, at Miami, Detroit, and at Arizona. They will not make the playoffs as a wildcard team at this point, are 1-3 in their division, and have the toughest remaining schedule in their division. They’ve had a lot of injuries, and while they’ll get some players back down the stretch, they’re too far gone to get back into it. The New York Times Playoff Calculator has them with just a 7% chance of making the playoffs.

Who’s On the Bubble

The NFC West and South except the Panthers, Saints and 49ers are on the bubble. I would also include the Washington Commanders, although they may have an easier remaining schedule that helps secure them one of the last two wildcard spots.

The three NFC West teams on the bubble- the Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, and LA Rams– all have a chance at winning the division and taking either the 3rd or 4th seed in the NFC postseason tournament. The first and second seeds look to be reserved for the NFC North and East division winners.

The same is true for the NFC South teams on the bubble- the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There is a shot that whichever team does not win the NFC South could secure a wildcard spot over the Commanders, who continue to slide.

Who’s In

Those teams not already mentioned are all virtual locks or likely playoff teams. These include:

• Detroit Lions (lock)
• Minnesota Vikings (lock)
• Philadelphia Eagles (lock)
• Green Bay Packers (likely)

The Lions, Vikings, and Eagles could all lose four of their last six games and probably still make the playoffs, but that’s not going to happen. The Vikings or Lions are guaranteed to lose one game as they play each other in Week 18, and the Eagles have a couple of tough matchups against the Ravens and Steelers, and perhaps another against the Commanders, but they also play the Panthers, Cowboys, and Giants- as close to three layups as you can get. But the Lions are favored in all their remaining games, the Vikings are favored in all but two (@ Lions, @ Seahawks), and the Eagles are favored in all but one game (@ Ravens).

The Packers have a tougher schedule, with road games against the Seahawks, Lions, and Vikings, following their game against the Dolphins this week. They also play the Saints at home and end their regular season at home against the Bears, which could also be a test depending on whether the Bears mail it in or not. But the Packers could lose to the Seahawks, Lions, and Vikings and still be guaranteed a playoff spot. They just need to beat the likely non-playoff teams on their schedule in the Saints and Bears at home.

Likely Playoff Slate

Given the current records of the playoff contenders, remaining schedule, and how they’ve been playing of late, I would not be surprised if the following teams made the playoffs in the NFC in some order:

• Lions
• Vikings
• Eagles
• Buccaneers
• Packers
• Seahawks
• Rams

The three bubble teams I have left out here are the Falcons, Cardinals, and Commanders, but you can make the case for any or all of them to make the playoffs- the third, fourth, sixth and seventh seeds could all be decided by tie-breakers. Heck, all the seeds could be decided by tie-breakers, but those teams contending now for the first, second, and fifth seed are likely to make the playoffs regardless.

The problem that I see persisting for the Commanders is that they’re not good defensively and teams seem to have figured out their offense sufficiently so it can’t compensate for their defense.

The Buccaneers have played a lot of playoff teams tough, despite being 5-6. They’ve had some key injuries on defense but have gotten those players back- Antoine Winfield and Jamal Dean- and also got Mike Evans back last week so they could make a run at the division title, despite having lost twice to the Falcons. The only playoff team they face the rest of the season is the Chargers. They play the Panthers twice, the Saints, the Cowboys, and the Raiders. I wouldn’t be surprised if they won five of their remaining six and edge out the Falcons for the division title.

The Seahawks just beat the Cardinals in a big game for both teams to take the lead in the NFC West and have looked better in recent weeks after getting off to a slow start.

The Rams have been dealing with injuries all season but are beginning to get healthy and could go on a run. They have a tough game against the Bills, but Saints, 49ers, Jets, Cards, Seahawks to finish the season. Those last two games will be critical.

The Falcons have been sliding a bit as the season has progressed after holding up reasonably well against some tough teams to start the season. But over their last three games, they narrowly beat the Cowboys, lost to the Saints, and got blown out by the Broncos. They’re not good situationally on either side of the ball on third down or the red zone and just don’t seem to have anything to hang their hat on. They’ve got tough games against the Chargers, Vikings, and Commanders remaining and I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost all three, which would leave them at 9-8 for the season if they manage to beat the Raiders, Giants, and Panthers which seems likely. But that could leave them one game short of winning the division and making the playoffs.

It’s a Demolition Derby

Nobody likes to admit it, but the NFL season and post-season is a demolition derby to a large degree. The healthiest teams are often the ones that advance the furthest.

For a favorite like the Lions, who have come off a couple of laughers against the Jags and Colts but have been getting more banged up as the season wears on, injuries are a growing concern. Their remaining schedule of Packers, Bills, @Bears, @49ers, Vikings could prove to be a tough one too. Division games are usually hard fought, particularly with the Bears playing better, and the Bills and 49ers could both be tough games if the 49ers get some key players back by then.

But for every team, Vikings included- and who just lost Ivan Pace Jr. to IR, team health and depth will be a big factor in how far they go in the playoffs. And this is the time of year- three months into the season and no more bye weeks- when injuries can start to add up. Few players are 100% healthy at this point, regardless of whether they show up on the injury report or not, despite all they do to maintain their bodies.

The Eagles are Looking Good… But

The Eagles started off the season slow and looked like they were headed to a disappointing season after losing to the Bucs and Falcons. But after their bye week they’ve won seven straight and at 9-2 have all but wrapped up the NFC East.

But it’s worth mentioning that the Eagles offense has faced the easiest slate of defenses in the league so far this season and by a wide margin in DVOA terms. That’s unlikely to change much the rest of the regular season as the only good defense they face is the Steelers. The rest are below average or worse.

The Packers Show a Troubling Postseason Prologue

Many pundits have the Packers over the Vikings in power rankings, and many more had them as Super Bowl contenders at the beginning of the season. But the Packers are showing a troubling prologue to what looks like a likely postseason birth. They beat the teams below them in the playoff seeding and lose to those above them- namely the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles. All that paints a pretty clear picture of a team destined for an early out in the postseason, whether in the wild card or divisional round. They boosted their point differential by blowing out the 49ers B-squad to +65, but with a remaining schedule against the Dolphins, Lions, Seahawks, Saints, Vikings, and Bears, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Packers’ point differential dip below 50, which corresponds historically with teams that have an early out in the playoffs.

And What About the Vikings?

My guess is that if the Vikings don’t catch the Lions to win the NFC North, they will end up with the fifth seed in the NFC postseason tournament. That means a road game against the division winner with the worst record- most likely the NFC South but possibly the NFC West. If that’s anyone but the Bucs, it will be against a team they’ll have played in the last half of the season (Seahawks, Rams, Falcons, Cardinals). That’s not ideal but each potential opponent is beatable.

If they advance they would likely face either the Eagles or Lions on the road, then likely the other on the road in the conference championship. That’s a tough row to hoe.

The much preferable route would be for the Lions to drop a game between now and week 18 and the Vikings to run the table including beating the Lions. That would give the Vikings the top seed even if the Eagles ran the table as well.

But to do that, the Vikings will need to take care of business the rest of the season. The Cardinals, Falcons, and Bears at home, Seahawks on the road, Packers at home are all winnable games for the Vikings and all but perhaps the Seattle road game they’ll likely be favored to win.

And in order to take care of business, there is one thing on top of the agenda for improvement: run the ball better in the red zone.

If you look at the Vikings’ offensive metrics, generally they look good outside of turnovers and red zone TD percentage. What really killed both but especially the latter was the Jaguars game. The Vikings went 0-5 in the red zone in that game, which essentially took them from inside the top ten to around 20th in red zone efficiency. Two of those blown opportunities were due to turnovers. And last weekend at Chicago Aaron Jones fumbled on the one-yard line, which was another blown red zone opportunity and turnover.

If you look at the Vikings’ EPA/rush attempt, overall it ranks 25th in the league at -0.10. But the real culprit is the Vikings’ EPA/rush attempt in the red zone, which is tied for last in the league at -0.52. Plays in the red zone are more high leverage because the difference between no points, three points, and seven or eight points is significant in a league where most games are decided by one score or less. Getting behind the chains will a stuffed run in the red zone on first or second down moves the needle a lot from 7 to 3 points, which affects EPA accordingly.

The Vikings also rank 25th in yards per rush attempt at 4.0, which could also be improved. The main thing with the Vikings rushing game is for it to be an asset in wearing down defenses and keeping them guessing, moving the chains and staying ahead of them. It doesn’t have to be flashy, but it does need to be effective. All that helps the Vikings maintain drives, score touchdowns in the red zone, maintain time of possession and wear down defenses while helping to keep the Vikings’ defense fresh.

It would be helpful in that regard if Aaron Jones were to have a late season/post-season surge like he did last season with the Packers, but offensive line play, play calling, and even getting back both Josh Oliver and T.J. Hockenson full-time could help too.

Defensively, the Vikings’ run defense has been easily the best in the league. Some unheralded play by the defensive front seven has certainly been a key factor, but scheme has also been an important aspect of run defense too. Brian Flores’ penchant for stacking the box and blitzing on early downs has proven to be even more effective against the run than defending the pass.

But red zone defense could improve, as the Vikings rank 27th in allowing TDs from the red zone (65.4%). They also rank best in lowest percentage of scoring drives allowed (26.6%). The upshot there is if opponents can make it to the red zone, they have a pretty good chance of scoring a touchdown- it’s getting there that’s a problem.

But while some of the Vikings’ wins have been disappointing in that they weren’t by a bigger margin, and the two losses were also disappointing, the Vikings lead the league in a couple interesting measures:

The Vikings continue to hold the lead in games at the highest clip in the league so far this season at 6:56:30 of game time. That’s already an hour and ten minutes longer than all of last season. As something of a parallel stat, the Vikings also have the best average in-game winning percentage (i.e. how likely they are to win the game at any moment during the game) of any team this season according to ESPN. Bottom line is that they’ve never been out of any game except the last few minutes against the Rams and have been the favorites to overwhelming favorites to win the game the vast majority of the time. They may not have had the blowouts that the Lions have had, but by-and-large they’ve been in command of the game most of the time week-in-and-week-out, which shows consistency and generally good performance. Those are positives that suggest at a minimum the Vikings will be a tough out in the playoffs.

Lastly, the Vikings will need the Sam Darnold of the last two games and early in the season to get deep into the playoffs, although the losses the Vikings have suffered suggest maintaining a strong defense is more important as Darnold played well in the losses while the defense had its worst games. The Vikings are 9-0 in games when the defense holds the opponent to under 30 points, and 0-2 when they don’t. Darnold is tied with Lamar Jackson for the league lead in games with a 100 or better passer rating at nine, and with one more will tie the Vikings’ season record with Brett Favre and Daunte Culpepper. With six games to go, it seems inevitable that he’ll break it.

But maintaining that solid performance into the playoffs without a hiccup game in the postseason is what matters. Historically Darnold has played his best in December, but has yet to play in the postseason, so we’ll have to see how he responds to the added pressure and spotlight.

Stay tuned.

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