Week 12 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis:

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

On the one hand, the Colts’ defense held the Detroit Lions to their 3rd lowest point total of the year, but on the other hand, the Lions didn’t have much trouble moving the ball down the field. They entered the red zone 4 times, coming away with 3 touchdowns and a turnover on downs which easily could have been a field goal had they opted to make the attempt. Detroit amassed 26 first downs for a whopping 81.2% Drive Success Rate (84th percentile) with only 1 three-and-out as they accumulated just shy of 400 yards.

Against an average offense, this would have been a disappointing Colts’ defensive performance, but considering this Lions average 34 points a game and racked up 645 yards and 52 points the prior week, I’m not going to be overly critical. This was a one-score game for about 3 quarters and that wasn’t due to the Colts’ offense.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Those 24 Lion points convert into 2.67 Points per Drive which ranks 20th out of 26 teams for week 12. That goes along with a defensive DSR of 21st.

The defense did a good job of limiting yards per play (12th), but Detroit was grinding out 1st and 2nd downs to end up with 3rd shortest yards to gain on 3rd downs. This caused Indy to give up a massive 60% 3rd down conversion rate (tied 2nd highest) which led to allowing the 3rd highest overall conversion rate.

That’s pretty much it. Indy capped the big plays but couldn’t stop Detroit from consistently delivering positive plays that earned first downs.

On the season, the defense drops 1 spot to tie for 14th place in PPD and they fall 3 spots to 20th in defensive DSR. DVOA ranks the Colts defense at 17th.

PASS TOTALS

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The Lions have one of the best passing games this season, so holding Goff to the 15th lowest EPA per dropback seems like a win. However, he also managed the 6th highest Passing Success Rate, which goes back to Detroit’s ability to consistently string together successful plays.

Goff’s 6.4 net yards per attempt isn’t that impressive (15th lowest) and he didn’t make many highlight reel plays, but he did complete 72% of his passes, which allowed him to earn the 8th highest passing conversion rate for the week as he dinked and dunked the Colts to death.

On the year, the Colts passing defense drops 2 spots to 16th by EPA per dropback and 18th by Passing Success Rate. DVOA is much more pessimistic ranking them 22nd.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Simply put, the Colts were terrible against the Detroit run game. Indy gave up 3 TDs and the 9th highest rushing conversion rate for the week. That translates to the 7th most EPA per carry for Detroit and the worst ranked adj Rush Success Rate (26th) for the Indy defense.

On the year, I drop the Colts run defense to 17th by adj RSR which almost matches their 16th DVOA rank.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

The job of the defense is to prevent points and on a per drive basis the Colts did not do that against the Lions. However, they held the Lions to 10 points below their season average, so if you want to call that a win, I can’t really disagree.

Next week should prove an easier task, as the Colts take on the New England Patriots whose offense ranks 29th in Points per Drive and 31st in DSR.

The Pats’ passing has been pretty poor. Drake Maye averages the 20th ranked EPA per dropback to go along with the 26th net yards per dropback. The New England O-Line allows a lot of pressure, so Maye scrambles a lot (2nd highest rate) and he gets sacked a lot (10th highest rate).

On the ground, New England is even worse. They have the 2nd lowest adj Rush Succes Rate and the 6th worst EPA per carry. They have the 8th fewest explosive carries per game, which is good because that is a weakness for the Colts D.

This is a good opporuntity for the defense to make a statement.