2024 is the worst in Sean McVay’s eight-year tenure
Looking to bounce back from an excruciating home loss, the Los Angeles Rams travel to New Orleans this Sunday, facing off with the Saints. A Bourbon Street bacchanal could be just what the doctor ordered to get L.A.’s sputtering offense up and humming.
The 2024 Rams offense is averaging 19.3 points per game. That is the second-lowest in Sean Mcvay’s eight-year tenure, trailing only the lost 2022 season’s 18.3. You can site the bullseye on third down conversions for this annum’s lack of production.
How important are converting third downs? Let’s check the Rams numbers.
3rd down conversions
2024 39 / 123 31.7%
2023 95 / 226 42%
2022 83 / 211 39.3%
2021 90 / 205 43.9%
2020 98 / 226 43.4%
2019 83 / 208 39.9%
2018 86 / 191 45.0%
2017 82 / 202 41.1%
A deeper look at 2024 shows 53 attempts at four yards or under, 31 passes and 21 runs. Add in a conversion on a defensive penalty and the Rams extended drives at 43.4%. That comes out to pass/run mix of 60/40. In the last four games, L.A. has passed on third and short at an 80% clip.
In 46 excursions between five and 10 yards, L.A. moved the chains at a 43.5% rate. Not a single run play was attempted, all were passes, which included six defensive penalties (all in the secondary), and one botched snap. All told, from all distances, the Rams threw the ball on third down 69.3% of attempts.
As one would expect, third down attempts of 11+ yards were cashed in at a much lower rate, but the Rams have had only one conversion in 24 chances, a 4.27% rate and that soliary moving of the sticks was on a defensive penalty. Of the 23 fails, 16 were by pass and seven on the ground.
How “elusive” NFL RBs have been weeks 1-12
x = Yards After Contact
y = Avoided Tackles pic.twitter.com/O9RjzZIYxp
— Stat Acccount (@AcccountStat) November 29, 2024
Cause and effect
So, what is the cause? It’s a case all of the usual suspects, you can’t put a finger on any single thing. At different times, injuries, execution, playcalling, and even personnel decisions have all been symptoms of an offense that runs hot and cold, not just third down play.
The Rams starting offensive line has had injury issues since training camp and the backups have simply not been up to par. Injury at tight end, created a chance for three young players to secure the future starting role, but run blocking pales to the past and pass targets are almost nil. L.A.’s two best receivers missed multiple games.
Execution has been iffy. Again, much begins with the Rams blocking. Too often, the offensive line is beaten off the blocks allowing plays to be blown up and opponents delayed blitz plays have been extraordinarily effective. But it’s not all on the linemen, Quarterback Matthew Stafford has had accuracy problems and only completed 30% of his 71 third down pass attempts, thrown two interceptions, and been sacked 12 times. At times, running back Kyren Williams has struggled and had to battle to just get back to the line of scrimmage. The receivers haven’t been plagued by drops, but there have been some problems getting separation.
Like it or not, Sean McVay is just as comfortable spreading and airing it out on third and short as he is trying to pound it. Old school fans would like to see him run the ball more often, particularly in the red zone, but he’s done it that way since the beginning. Even with Todd Gurley.
What not extending drives leads to is fewer chances to score. Less drives, plays and to a lesser extent, time of possession magnifies the pressure on each drive to score points. In a season where four of six losses have come by a score (6,6,5,8) or less, one extra drive per game could easily make a difference.
Plays, drives and time of possession percentage
2024 700 plays / 113 drives – 48.5%
2023 1137 plays / 185 drives – 50.8%
2022 1031 plays / 176 drives – 49.6%
2021 1092 plays / 181 drives – 50.0%
2020 1118 plays / 184 drives – 52.8%
2019 1088 plays / 185 drives – 48.4%
2018 1105 plays / 183 drives – 51.3%
2017 1047 plays / 190 drives – 49.4%
Drives ending with a score
2024 35.5%
2023 41.1%
2022 33.5%
2021 45.9%
2020 34.2%
2019 35.7%
2018 48.6%
2017 45.3%
Conclusion
Unless there is a huge uptick in third down conversions, L.A is on its way to its worst rate in the McVay era. And that will directly lead to the least drives, plays, time of possession, scoring drive percentage, and points scored. Right now, the 2024 edition of the Rams looks closer to the abdominal 2022 season than any others.
With all that said, L.A still has two path’s to the playoffs. The most viable is sneaking into the NFC West. With no team stepping up, it remains up for grabs. Another is Wildcard #3, the Washington Commanders are flailing, having lost three in a row and allowing others hope.
To remain relevant in playoff scenario discussions, down this final six game stretch, the Rams have to win games by maximizing their scoring opportunities and it all starts with converting third downs.
