The AP staff (and our readers) pick the Chiefs-Raiders game

Let’s see what AP staffers (and readers) think about Friday’s game between Kansas City and Las Vegas.

Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 12 game against the Carolina Panthers, the predictions from our panel of Arrowhead Pride contributors averaged to a 29-15 Kansas City victory. That had 24 points of error from the 30-27 final: it missed the point spread by 11 points, the Chiefs’ score by one point and the Panthers’ score by 12 points. Half of our panel incorrectly believed the game would be a Kansas City blowout. Our readers were a bit less confident. Half of our readers expected the Chiefs to win easily.

In Week 13, the Chiefs face the Las Vegas Raiders on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 12.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

Nate Christensen (@natech32)

I think there will be people who predict this game to be close, but I don’t see it. It’s a short week for both teams, it’s going to be cold and the Raiders are bringing in a new quarterback Aidan O’Connell to start. As much as these recent Chiefs games have been weird, I think this will a good bounce-back for both sides of the ball. I expect the Kansas City pass rush to look better — and I think the offense will be able to move the ball against the Las Vegas defense. It’s been a while since the Chiefs played at home. I think that will serve them well.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 9

John Dixon (@Arrowheadphones)

This is another game where some folks will expect a big Kansas City victory. It’s certainly possible, because the Raiders have a lot of problems right now. But I think we’ll see the same thing we saw against the Panthers: a matchup where the Chiefs get an early lead and hold it throughout the game — and then Las Vegas will get a garbage-time score that makes the game seem closer than it really was.

Chiefs 27, Raiders 20

Maurice Elston (@MrMauriceElston)

Division games are typically hard-fought and tightly contested. Just the same, this feels like the week where the Chiefs will finally put it all together. Coming off a win against the Panthers that was much closer than it should have been, the players made it clear they weren’t satisfied with their performance. Expect a strong response as the team tries to make a statement against a Raiders team that has struggled all season. This time, Kansas City should dominate in all phases, walking away with a convincing victory.

Chiefs 27, Raiders 13

Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp)

This is a dangerous feeling — similar to the one before last year’s Christmas matchup against Las Vegas. The holiday game against a lowly division rival felt like the get-right spot. The disappointing result of last year’s game has to be sticking with this Chiefs team. The entire group must be smelling blood in the water for this matchup. Meanwhile, the Raiders’ starting quarterback Gardner Minshew is out for the season. A quarterback change on a short holiday week should be an opportunity for the Kansas City defense to dominate. I think that unit gets back to suffocating the opposition, leading the way to a tough win.

Chiefs 23, Raiders 10

Rocky Magaña (@RockyMagana)

This is the time of the year when the Chiefs usually decide to play down to their competition and win every game by six points or less. But not today, Satan! Bleep the Raiders, bleep Tom Brady and bleep Aiden O’Connell’s horrible excuse for a trash-stache! After just one game, I refuse to believe Patrick Mahomes has forgotten about the Raiders’ Kermit the Frog puppet — or his team’s embarrassing loss to Las Vegas last Christmas. This isn’t a game the Chiefs are looking past. It’s a game they have been salivating over. It’s Thanksgiving — and his year I’m thankful that when the dust settles, the Chiefs will be feasting on a W like they are stolen crab legs from Jameis Winston’s house.

Chiefs 45, Raiders 3

Jared Sapp (@TrumanChief)

Division games are weird. Short-week games are weird. I’m going to predict another closer-than-expected Chiefs win that feels more like a loss because of lofty expectations. I see Kansas City trying to minimize Maxx Crosby’s impact with a run-heavy approach behind a returning Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. I think the defense will play better than a week ago in Carolina, but the Raiders will take advantage of a lack of recent film on quarterback Aidan O’Connell to improvise a couple of big plays. Like the last time these teams met, don’t be surprised if a late score makes the game appear closer than it truly was.

Chiefs 24, Raiders 17

Matt Stagner (@stagdsp)

Even though it is no longer undefeated, this Kansas City team is still the NFL’s best. Patrick Mahomes has proven to be the difference between winning and losing close games. His offense feels like it’s getting back on track — and will soon get yet another injection of talent when Isiah Pacheco, Charles Omenihu, Hollywood Brown and D.J. Humphries enter the chat. But alas, that’s not likely to happen before this game — one in which the Chiefs need to be laser-focused on getting a win. They’re facing a lesser division opponent with a backup quarterback on a holiday — with a chance to lock up a playoff invite. These situations can leave a team like Kansas City ripe for an upset. I don’t think the Raiders get it done this time. Watch the further evolution of Xavier Worthy — and the return of successful pressure from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense.

Chiefs 33, Raiders 17

Pete Sweeney (@pgsween)

I can’t imagine a scenario where returning quarterback Aidan O’Connell keeps this game close. Then again, the Raiders needed only 62 yards from O’Connell to win last year’s Christmas Day slopfest at Arrowhead Stadium. So I’m going to continue to do it, even though it has gotten maddening: I think the Chiefs beat the lowly Raiders convincingly. Against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, Patrick Mahomes makes a statement to the tune of 300 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Isiah Pacheco scores in his return.

Chiefs 30, Raiders 9

With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 30-12.

What do you think?

In Week 13, AP staffer Matt Stagner turned in the best Chiefs-Panthers pick. His prediction for a 28-20 Kansas City win had 14 points of error. John Dixon’s call for a 31-20 victory missed by 16 total points. Two other contributors turned in predictions with 20 points of error.

To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.