Fantasy football 24: Week 13 fantasy preview—Start/sit and more

Welcome to Week 13, and Happy Thanksgiving! On the NFL slate for the long weekend: Three games on Thanksgiving Day, one on Black Friday, 11 on Sunday, and one more on Monday. Throw in an even more relentless schedule of College Football games (this is “Rivalry Week”), the big feast on Thursday, and days and days of leftovers, and my retroactive, expert advice is that hopefully you got in a few decent workouts and spent some time with your family (and spouse/partner if you have one) earlier in the week.

Fantasy football pop quiz time: After 12 weeks, what do the RB1, RB2, RB3, and RB9 (on a fantasy points per game (FPPG) basis) all have in common? Fine, I’ll tell you. Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, and Josh Jacobs are all veteran backs who joined new (and much better) teams this past offseason. Nobody was positive how that mass relocation of veteran RB talent was going to work out, and a lot of fantasy analysts preached caution. Newsflash: It has worked out. Oh, how it has worked out.

In retrospect, it now seems crazy that Barkley and Henry weren’t consensus Top-5 picks in August, and that Jacobs and Mixon weren’t taken at the 1-2 turn, at the latest. Aaron Jones, J.K. Dobbins, and Tony Pollard have also been very good for their new teams, and in fantasy, and were draft day steals at Average Draft Position (ADP). D’Andre Swift has been pretty good too, after a slow start. And by and large they’ve all stayed healthy. Like I said, it has worked out. Oh well, live and learn. And what we’ve learned is that the death of the NFL running back was called prematurely, that backs aren’t automatically cooked at age 26-27, and that talent, coaching, and situation matter. Backs are back, and their resurgence has been one of the biggest stories of this season. As more of an old-school football guy, I’m here for it.

Stats of the Week:

Barkley’s 255 rushing yards on Sunday night was the highest total since 2009. He also had more than 300+ yards from scrimmage. The Giants had 245 yards of total offense on Sunday. OUCH.

Five of the Chiefs ten wins have been decided on the last play of the game.

The Chiefs have 13 straight one-score games (including playoffs). That ties the 2003-04 Patriots for the longest such streak all-time.

Travis Kelce is now third all-time in receiving yards among tight ends, having passed Antonio Gates on Sunday.

In the DAL@WAS game, two TDs were scored in the game’s first 55 minutes, and then five TDs were scored in the final five minutes.

The Lions are 10-1 for just the second time in their history in Detroit (they were also 10-1 in 1934, their first year there).

David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have scored a TD in the same game nine different times. That’s the third most all-time among RB tandems. They’ve played together for less than two full seasons. RBs are back!!!

Guffaws of the Week:

The Raiders have lost eight straight games where the opponent started a rookie QB.

Raiders’ QBs have thrown 12 TDs and 12 INTs (in 11 games).

The Giants have lost seven straight home games, their longest such streak since 2003.

The 49ers, who lost in the Super Bowl earlier this year, are currently in last place in the NFC West, and play at Buffalo this week (who have won six straight games).

During Joe Douglas’s tenure as Jets’ GM, Gang Green had zero playoff appearances, and the only team with a worse cumulative won-loss record was the Panthers.

Week 13, here we go!

Bye Weeks: NONE

Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Week 13 Rides, Fades and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Lamar Jackson, Saquon Barkley, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or George Kittle. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

I was on my Bye week last week! The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a good showing back in Week 11. You can check my work here: Week 11 Preview.

Ride of the Week:

Patrick Mahomes (vs. LV). An obvious name, I know, but Mahomes has spent most of this season well outside the Top-12 QBs. Don’t look now, but he’s heating up. He’s the QB4 over the past five weeks and has thrown for three TDs in three of his last four games. Adding DeAndre Hopkins to the mix has helped, but he’s getting everyone involved, and the return of Isiah Pacheco should make the offense better. And now for the fun part: They’re playing the Raiders, who are in free-fall. Vegas has allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks but they’ve been especially generous in recent weeks. The Chiefs were embarrassed by Vegas on Christmas Day last season, and they’ve lost only one game since. Mahomes has a long history of running it up on the Raiders. So sit back on Friday, order what you need (and what you don’t) from your favorite online retailers, and watch Mahomes go off.

Fade of the Week:

James Conner (@MIN). I’m a huge Conner fan, and I’ll chalk up last week’s seven carries for eight yards debacle as an aberration (though it was his second straight game with less than 40 yards rushing). A trip to Minnesota isn’t the best way to get back on track. The Vikings have allowed the second fewest FPPG and rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and the fewest rushing attempts. It’s a solid defense and I think another sub-par day for Conner is likely. Don’t quit him though. The schedule moderates some after this week.

Sleeper of the Week:

Tank Dell (@JAC). Where is the magic from his rookie season? More to the point, where is C.J. Stroud’s? Stroud has been among the most disappointing players on the entire fantasy landscape in 2024. Well, this should be a good week for both of them to get right. The Jaguars have allowed the third most FPPG and receiving yards to opposing wide receivers, and big plays are part of the reason. Dell only caught three passes last week, but they went for a total of 72 yards, which is promising. He’s ranked outside the Top-30 this week and call it a hunch, but I feel like this is his week to finally deliver the goods.

Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

Quarterback:

Elite options this week – Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow;Burrow (vs. PIT) and Jackson (@PHI) have bad matchups. You’re starting them of course, but temper expectations.

Rides:

Justin Herbert (@ATL). Herbert didn’t throw any TD passes last week (against the Ravens, go figure), but he ran one in and for the fifth straight game, topped 17 fantasy points. He’s the QB8 over that stretch, and has been chucking it much more of late. He’s only thrown one INT all season and is dealing as well as just about anyone. It’s also an indoor game, and a plus-matchup. The Falcons have allowed the seventh most FPPG per game, and they’re dead last in the NFL in sacks and pressure rate. The potential loss of J.K. Dobbins hurts the entire offense, but I still have Herbert as a borderline Top-5 play this week.

Baker Mayfield (@CAR). The only thing holding me back here is that the Panthers are so easy to run on, much like the Bucs’ last opponent (the Giants). So Baker might not have to throw it that much. Still, he’s been dynamite all year (he’s the QB4 on the season) and the return of Mike Evans gives him the legit weapon he’s been missing for the past month.

Other QBs inside the Top-15 this week who I think could beat their weekly rankings are Anthony Richardson (@NE), the aforementioned C.J. Stroud (@JAC),Bo Nix (vs. CLE).

Sleepers:

Derek Carr (vs. LAR). Carr is a little hard to trust, but he has no problem airing it out, going for big plays, and hitting enough of them to make him fantasy-viable. The Rams bring decent pressure but are a pretty neutral matchup. Carr is ranked outside the Top-20 this week and I think that’s too low.

Geno Smith (@NYJ). Revenge game! You can throw the Jets’ defensive rankings and stats out the window, because their once fierce defense has completely, utterly, entirely, and totally fallen apart in the last month. Those are all the adverbs I can think of. Funny how that happened after their defensive-minded HC got fired. Go figure. What a stellar organization…Anyway, I think Geno is a decent play this week, if you need him.

If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or you’re stuck, I think you can also go with: Matthew Stafford (@NO), Drake Maye (vs. IND), Russell Wilson (@CIN), and (gulp) 2023 #1 overall pick Bryce Young (vs. TB).

Fades:

Tua Tagovailoa (@GB). Tua is coming off his best game of the season, and Miami is hot, with three straight wins. Well, his best game came in sunny Florida against a very bad team. The temperature at kickoff on Thanksgiving night is expected to be around 28 degrees, with light snow. I can stop right there. Tua’s history in cold-weather games is well documented. He’s never won when the kickoff temperature is below 40. The Packers are also an unfavorable matchup (eighth-fewest FPPG allowed to opposing QBs), and their defense is especially tough at home. Buyer beware.

Jordan Love (vs. MIA). Let’s stay right here. Love has struggled at times this season, and Miami has been a matchup to avoid (fourth fewest FPPG and passing yards allowed to opposing QBs). He’ll be without Romeo Doubs, who leads the team’s wide receiver group in snaps and is a useful safety blanket. The weather won’t be great for him or his butter-fingered WRs either. I don’t think he’s a terrible choice, but I have him outside my Top-12 this week.

Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but that I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week include Brock Purdy (@BUF, if he plays), Aaron Rodgers (vs. SEA), Giants’ QBs (@DAL), Kirk Cousins (vs. LAC), and Jameis Winston (@DEN).

Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images

Running back:

Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Joe Mixon, Devon Achane, and Bijan Robinson; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Josh Jacobs (vs. MIA). In a cold-weather game against one of the league’s best pass defenses, give me the workhorse who scored three rushing TDs last week. Don’t expect a repeat of that, but Jacobs is very much a solid play on Thanksgiving evening. Miami has allowed 10 rushing TDs to opposing backs.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (vs. CHI). Gibbs is probably in elite territory these days, but the split with Montgomery is just enough to keep him in the general population. Montgomery is expected to play, and both backs should do well in another matchup where the opposing defense is stronger vs. the pass than the run. Detroit pounds teams into submission, and both backs are every-week must-starts, as long as they’re healthy.

Bucky Irving (@CAR). Irving is coming off his best game of the season, with more than 150 yards from scrimmage and a TD. It’s still a committee approach, but he has emerged as the team’s best and most explosive runner. He’s a tackle-breaker with some burst. You know who is even easier to run on than the Giants? The Panthers. They’ve allowed the most FPPG, rushing yards per game, and rushing TDs (14) to opposing running backs. Yahtzee! Bucky is a blue plate special this week. He’s ranked outside the Top-15 RBs and I think he’s a Top-12 play. I also think Rachaad White is an OK start, as there should be enough to go around.

Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (@DAL). Tracy has been running well, and the Cowboys have been one of the softest run defenses all season. They’ve allowed the third most FPPG and the second most rushing TDs (13) to opposing running backs, and I think the Giants will try to establish some balance on offense. The danger here is New York getting blown out again, but I don’t see that as all that likely against this Dallas team, which has been horrible in JerryWorld.

Others ranked inside the Top-24 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings are (it’s a big group this week, as I said in the open, it’s the year of the running back): Alvin Kamara (vs. LAR), James Cook (vs. SF), Jonathan Taylor (@NE), Kenneth Walker III (@NYJ), Chuba Hubbard (vs. TB), and Chase Brown (vs. PIT).

Sleepers:

Rico Dowdle (vs. NYG). He’s ranked just outside the Top-24 this week and I think that’s too low. The Giants have been atrocious vs. the run lately. In their last two games, they’ve given up a ton of yards and allowed opposing RBs to score four rushing TDs, and on the season they’ve allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing backs. Dowdle doesn’t have a rushing TD yet this season, but I think that’ll change right around when you’re getting that second full plate of food.

Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco (vs. LV). What to do, what to do…I’m guessing the Chiefs will ease Pacheco back in, and if the split is fairly even as I expect it will be, I think both backs can be slotted in as Flexes against the Raiders. But I get it if you want to wait a week.

Gus Edwards (@ATL). He’s ranked outside the Top-30 this week, and my guess is that will go up once it becomes certain that J.K. Dobbins is out. He won’t get you much in the passing game, but he figures to get plenty of run and the goal-line opportunities for as long as Dobbins isn’t there.

Others you can consider, if you’re stuck: Rachaad White (@CAR, and as noted above), Jaylen Warren (vs. CIN), Jeremy McNichols (vs. TEN), and Tank Bigsby (vs. HOU). If Ameer Abdullah (@KC) again has the backfield mostly to himself, he’s Flex-worthy, even in a terrible matchup at KC and the league’s #1 run defense.

Fades:

D‘Andre Swift (@CHI). Swift has cooled of considerably over the last four games (3.4 yards per carry and less than 10 fantasy points in each of those contests), and while I wouldn’t necessarily sit him, I don’t think he’s a good play on Thanksgiving Day. Chicago’s entire offense is hard to trust, and the Lions have been playing tough defense, despite some significant injuries. They’ve been tough to run on all season (third fewest FPPG and rushing yards per game allowed to opposing running backs). Part of the issue has been the Lions blowing teams out, and Swift’s usage in the passing game hasn’t been consistent.

Najee Harris (vs. CIN). Harris has tailed off since Jaylen Warren returned, and is most certainly no longer an auto-start. He’s tallied back-to-back games with less than 10 fantasy points, and in the two games before that he topped out at 13.1 fantasy points. Over his last three contests, he’s averaging just 52 rushing yards per game. Those are all bad trendlines, and if you start him you’ll probably need a TD to make it worthwhile. The Bengals have been a moderately difficult matchup for RBs (including allowing the fewest receiving yards to the position).

Denver RBs (vs. CLE). It’s a somewhat difficult matchup, but more importantly, who can you trust? Certainly not Sean Payton. This is the definition of an RB committee, and worse, there are three backs in the mix. No player has more than 40% of Denver’s running back carries this season. Pass.

More RB Fades: Nick Chubb (@DEN) and Travis Etienne (vs. HOU).

Wide receiver:

Elite options this week –Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The analysis starts below them.

Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images

Rides:

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp (@NO). Fire them both up, as they’re both Top-10 plays this week. The Saints have allowed the eighth most FPPG and the fifth most receiving yards to opposing WRs, and they’re not as strong against the pass since trading away Marshon Lattimore a few weeks ago. This game has sneaky shootout potential, and one of the highest Vegas totals of the week (48.5). Start what pieces you can…

George Pickens (@CIN) and Courtland Sutton (vs. CLE). In a year when so many bigger name receivers have either disappointed or gotten hurt, these two haven’t. Both have decent matchups, and each one is the clear alpha on his team. I have them both as Top-12 plays this week.

Ladd McConkey (@ATL). McConkey is quietly putting together a pretty good season, and this week he should benefit from a more pass-heavy approach with J.K. Dobbins a longshot to play. The Falcons are the only team in the NFL averaging less than a sack per game, and Justin Herbert has the arm talent to pick apart almost any defense if you allow him too much time. Atlanta has allowed the seventh-most FPPG and third most TD catches (15) to opposing WRs. McConkey is the best bet on the Chargers to put up better than normal numbers.

Other receivers ranked from 12-30 that I think should outperform their ranking this week include: Malik Nabers (@DAL), Calvin Ridley (@WAS, but if there is a more boom-bust player out there, I haven’t found him yet), JSN (@NYJ) and if Trevor Lawrence plays, Brian Thomas, Jr. (vs. HOU).

Sleepers:

Khalil Shakir (vs. SF). I don’t know which Bills’ receivers and tight ends will be healthy for this contest, but I know Shakir will be, and I know he leads the league in percentage of targets caught. I also know he has a great quarterback, and that the 49ers are reeling and seeing their season slip away. Shakir is a safe bet for decent volume from the slot.

Jordan Addison (vs. ARI). I try not to chase performance. Addison is good (and underrated), and if defenses focus too much on Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson, he can make you pay. He’s ranked outside the Top-35 this week, and I like him as a Flex play with upside.

DeAndre Hopkins (vs. LV). I can’t figure out why Hopkins is ranked as the WR36 this week. Did I miss an injury? Is he a big Black Friday shopper? I get that he isn’t putting up big catch and yardage totals, but you know I’m in on Mahomes, and while he’s spreading the ball around a lot, Hopkins is a guy he looks for in the red zone. I have him as a low-end WR2 this week, meaning I have him ranked about ten spots higher than consensus.

Other wide receivers ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need: Darnell Mooney (vs. LAC), Xavier Legette (vs. TB), Alec Pierce (@NE), Demario Douglas (vs. IND), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs. LAR), and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (@WAS). If you want deeper sleepers for DFS tournaments or otherwise: Joshua Palmer (@ATL), Devaughn Vele (vs. CLE), and Michael Wilson (@MIN).

Fades:

Tyreek Hill (@GB). Yup, I’ve had a stiff drink and I’m doing it, and it will probably come back to bite me. Tyreek Hill! The man is the most dangerous receiver on the planet. I can’t imagine too many people will actually sit Hill (assuming he plays), but the numbers don’t lie. Tua’s return has been great for Miami’s offense, but surprisingly, not so much for Hill, who is clearly not 100% healthy. He’s amassed 125 receiving yards across the last three games. That’s about what he was doing per game for the first half of last season. Throw in Tua’s struggles in cold weather and the tough matchup, and I don’t think he’s anything close to an auto-start this week.

Jayden Reed (vs. MIA). Reed is coming off another ice-cold game, and hasn’t been the same player that he was earlier in the season. The last time he scored more than 11 fantasy points was way back in Week 4. Meanwhile, Miami is not only a bad matchup for opposing WRs; they’re an especially bad matchup for slot receivers. They’ve allowed the fewest FPPG, receiving yards, and receiving TDs (5) to opposing WRs, with only two of those TDs coming from the slot. Reed is a Fade for me this week.

Zay Flowers (vs. PHI). Flowers has been putting up pretty pedestrian totals lately, as other players have gotten more involved and Mark Andrews has reasserted himself as an elite red zone target. That trend plus the matchup has me feeling pretty shaky about Flowers this week. Philadelphia’s improvement in the secondary from last season to this one should be the topic of a docu-series. It’s been that drastic. They nailed their first two draft picks (both corners), brought in Vic Fangio as the new DC, and it’s been clampdown city. Their season-long numbers don’t tell the full story. In their last seven games, only one opponent has scored more than 20 points, and much of the passing yardage they’ve yielded has been in garbage time, as was the case vs. the Rams last week. In close games, they’ve been very tough on opposing wide receivers.

Deebo Samuel (@BUF). What has happened to him? Where did he go? The most dangerous dual-threat wide receiver in the game has vanished. Is he hurt? It’s possible that Brock Purdy will miss this game, plus it’s a bad matchup (the Bills have allowed the fourth fewest FPPG to opposing WRs). I’m out.

More Fades: Devante Adams (vs. SEA), Amari Cooper (vs. SF, if he plays), and Jameson Williams (vs. CHI).

Tight end:

Elite options this week – Travis Kelce and George Kittle; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Brock Bowers (@KC). He’s not an elite option only because of the uncertainty around the team’s latest QB change. That said, he is the center of the Raiders’ offense and he’s certainly their best playmaker. The Chiefs’ defense is one of the NFL’s best, but one place they’ve struggled is against opposing tight ends (sixth-most FPPG and most receiving yards allowed to the position).

Taysom Hill (vs. LAR). He makes my Rides list almost every week, assuming he is healthy. The ridiculous upside, which we saw in his last game, is too much to pass up. You just have to accept the inconsistency, which frankly is true of most tight ends anyway. For me, Hill is a must-start every week.

Cade Otton (@CAR). Otton’s stint of Top-5 weekly performances is likely over with the return of Mike Evans, but this is too good of a matchup to pass up. The Panthers are decent vs. WRs, but they’ve been the most attractive matchup for TEs. They’ve allowed the most FPPG and receiving TDs (9) to the position.

Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking: Jonnu Smith (@GB), Tucker Kraft (vs. MIA), and Dallas Goedert (@BAL).

Sleepers: Pat Freiermuth (@CIN). ‘Muth hasn’t done all that much this season, but I like him in this spot. I think the Steelers will need to throw a little more in this game, and Cincinnati has really struggled to contain tight ends. They’ve allowed the second most FPPG and TD catches (7) to the position.

Other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 that I think can be slotted in this week if needed: Will Dissly (@ATL) and Noah Gray (vs. LV).

Fades:

Kyle Pitts (vs. LAC). This is a classic combo of a bad trendline (he’s seen just ten targets in the last three games, and hasn’t finished as a Top-15 tight end for the week in that stretch) and a tough matchup. The Chargers have only allowed one score to a TE all season (and it just happened on Monday night), and they’re a Top-8 defense against the position.

Cole Kmet (@DET). I just can’t trust him, and neither should you. He’s coming off his first good game in over a month, which is a positive, but he hasn’t been able to string good games together, which is a symptom of a very inconsistent offense and a rookie QB. The Lions are also a bad matchup (fewest receiving yards and FPPG allowed to the position, and just one TD surrendered).

Dalton Schultz (@JAC) and Dalton Kincaid (vs. BUF). I’m grouping these guys together because they’re both named Dalton. Seriously. It’s late in the column and my fingers are numb. Also, they’ve both had disappointing seasons and I wouldn’t want to count on them for points this week.

Other TE Fades (of players you could be considering): Dallas TEs (vs. NYG) and Chig Okonkwo (@WAS).

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12): See my Week 13 Waivers column.

That’s all I’ve got. Good luck in Week 13!

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***