What is the best path to the playoffs for Cincinnati?
No, the Cincinnati Bengals are not out of it yet. You need two things to win late in the season. One is a good quarterback, and the Bengals have one of the best in Joe Burrow. The other is a good defense, and, well, we’re not going to talk about that.
The Bengals aren’t going to win the AFC North, but they have the potential to unseat either of the AFC North teams who are currently projected to make the dance. They could also take the place of either of the AFC West teams who are in position for a wild card berth.
The Bengals could win as many as 10 games this regular season, while tiebreakers could allow them to make it over other 10-win team, the coach in me hates thinking about those scenarios. I prefer to look at how they can get there without having to worry about all that nonsense, so the scenarios below will focus on other teams winning only 9 games.
First let’s talk about the three things need to happen in order for any of these scenarios to work.
1. The Bengals win out
Remaining Schedule:
- Week 13 vs Steelers
- Week 14 at Cowboys
- Week 15 at Titans
- Week 16 vs Browns
- Week 17 vs Broncos
- Week 18 at Steelers
It’s not crazy to think. The hardest part would be sweeping the Steelers. The Broncos, who are also in the playoff race, will not be an easy out either.
2. Miami Dolphins lose at least two games
Remaining Schedule:
- Week 13 at Packers
- Week 14 vs Jets
- Week 15 at Texans
- Week 16 vs 49ers
- Week 17 at Browns
- Week 18 at Jets
The Packers and Texans games seem like the most likely losses. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel could also fall to his former boss in San Francisco, or maybe the Browns could do Cincy a solid. The Jets aren’t good, but it isn’t easy to sweep anyone.
This could definitely come to fruition.
3. Indianapolis Colts Lose at least one game
Remaining Schedule:
- Week 13 at Patriots
- Week 15 at Broncos
- Week 16 vs Titans
- Week 17 at Giants
- Week 18 at Jaguars
This schedule isn’t too tough, but they only need to blow one game. As was mentioned above, the Broncos are on a playoff run, so that game could be the one. If not, maybe Brian Callahan’s Titans could help out with another upset. Maybe the Patriots or the Giants surprise us.
If these three things still happen, the Bengals could still be the 8th-ranked team in the AFC and thus head home early. They will need a little more help.
Here is what their contenders need to do to blow their playoff hopes and open the door for the Bengals.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos are currently 7-5, so they’ll have to go 2-3 down the stretch for the Bengals to leapfrog them.
Remaining Schedule:
- Week 13 vs Browns
- Week 15 vs Colts
- Week 16 at Chargers
- Week 17 at Bengals
- Week 18 vs Chiefs
Well, we knew the Bengals had to beat them anyway. The Colts and Chargers are also playoff contenders who could knock them off. They play the Chiefs, but not until the final week, so there is no telling how seriously Kansas City will take it. Once again, the Browns could help out if they felt so inclined.
The likelihood that the Bengals can surpass: Fair
Denver has been playing well lately, but I am still not completely sold on Bo Nix. With upcoming games against the Colts and Chargers, Denver could need to win in Cincinnati to stay in the hunt.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers currently have a record of 7-4, so to fall short of a 10-win season, they will have to go 2-4 over the next six weeks.
Remaining Schedule
Week 13 at Falcons
Week 14 at Chiefs
Week 15 vs Buccaneers
Week 16 vs Broncos
Week 17 at Patriots
Week 18 at Raiders
The Chargers have a tough road a head traveling to both Atlanta and Kansas City. This comes after a Week 12 loss to the Ravens on Monday Night Football. It sure would have been nice if the Bengals had beaten them the week prior, but, you know, bygones. The Broncos also have a chance to beat them, although the Chargers won soundly the last time they played. If they managed to lose all three of those games, Bengals fans will still be hoping for an upset win by the Buccaneers, Patriots, or Raiders.
Likelihood that the Bengals can surpass: Poor
It is tough to see the Chargers having this type of collapse. In the end, the Bengals’ loss in LA two weeks ago may be the deciding factor.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are 8-4 so they would need to have a complete collapse to finish the season at 9-8 or worse. I mean a losing to Tommy DeVito kind of collapse. I mean the house of Usher ain’t got nothing on them. While this would be wonderful to behold given, it’s not bloody likely.
Remaining Schedule
Week 13 vs Eagles
Week 15 at Giants
Week 16 vs Steelers
Week 17 at Texans
Week 18 vs Browns
It’s really hard to see four losses here if everyone is healthy. Your best bet is the Eagles this weekend, but even that is a coin flip at best. Maybe the Steelers or the Texans can pull something out, but I doubt it. If all of those games fell in the Bengals’ favor, the Ravens would still likely finish with 10 wins after sweeping the Bengals. Who would have guessed that losing twice to your top divisional foe would come back to haunt you? Oh, that’s right. Everyone.
Likelihood that the Bengals can surpass: Astronomically bad
Get out your voodoo dolls and start studying which craft because it is going to take a supernatural curse to make this happen.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite their 8-3 record and current position in the lead of the AFC North, there is a pretty clear path to surpassing the Steelers in the standings. Just take a look at their schedule.
Remaining Schedule
- Week 13 at Bengals
- Week 14 vs Browns
- Week 15 at Eagles
- Week 16 at Ravens
- Week 17 vs Chiefs
- Week 18 vs Bengals
The Steelers are already within two games of 10 wins, so there isn’t much room for error. The Bengals need to sweep them. That’s a given. The Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs will all be tough games, and they could easily lose all three. If the Browns beat them before they get to that murderer’s row, even better.
Likelihood that the Bengals can surpass: Best bet (but that ain’t saying much)
This scenario is the most likely to play out in the Bengals’ favor, although it remains pretty unlikely. The Bengals are in most control of their own fate here, needing the win this weekend and facing off against the Steelers again in Week 18. It will be a bit uncomfortable having to root for the Ravens and Chiefs in the proceeding weeks, but I can get behind being an Eagles fan for three hours.
How epic would it be to have a regular-season finale against the Steelers with both teams competing for the final playoff slot?
