Can the Giants generate some real offense?
The 2-9 New York Giants travel to Dallas to play the 4-7 Cowboys on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are favored by 3.5 points, and the Over/Under is an exciting 37.5 points. Why the NFL schedulers choose the Giants again for Thanksgiving is beyond me.
This is the second matchup between the rivals; the Cowboys won 20-15 on Thursday Night Football in Week 4. Dallas lost five consecutive games before last week’s 34-26 upset over the Washington Commanders. The Giants have lost six in a row heading into this game by a combined score of 148-74.
Turmoil encompasses the Giants after a brutal 30-7 home loss out of the bye week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I wouldn’t be shocked to see changes made if the Giants are as lifeless as they were in Week 12. It’s not acceptable. Tensions will be high. Hopefully, the tryptophan knocks us out if the Giants forget to show up again.
Dallas statistics
It’s important to note that the Dallas defense has received players — like Micah Parsons — back from injury. Still, the Cowboys’ defense surrenders the second most points in the league; they allow 29 points per game, and Carolina allows 30.9. They rank 27th in yards allowed (369.9).
The Cowboys rank 21st in passing yards allowed (219.5). They surrender the second most rushing yards per game (150.5); New York is 30th in the league with 147.5 yards surrendered on the deck. Unfortunately, the Giants’ rushing attack was shut down against Dallas in Week 4; here’s a video explaining why.
The Cowboys have the worst red zone defense in the league, surrendering a touchdown on 75.68% of opposing red zone trips. They’re 11th in third-down defense, allowing a conversion on 35.07% of attempts; the Giants are 13th in the NFL with a 35.82% defensive third-down success rate.
Mike Zimmer brought an aggressive approach to Dallas. The Cowboys blitz on 31.5% of their plays and generate pressure at a 26.3% rate. Zimmer likes to mug the A-Gaps and send pressure to implode the interior offensive line while leaving the tackles on islands outside—not great for the Giants.
Dallas personnel
Edge defender Micah Parsons and linebacker Demarvion Overshown lead the team with five sacks each. Demarcus Lawrence and Carl Lawson have three. Parsons leads the team with 36 pressures in seven games. Osa Odighizuwu has 35 pressures and two sacks. Chauncey Golston also has two sacks and 24 pressures. Lawrence was placed on Injured Reserve after Week 4.
Overshown is an impressive young and explosive athlete at linebacker who dominated the Giants in Week 4. He’s paired with veteran Eric Kendricks, who played for Zimmer in Minnesota. The duo works well together, as Parsons aligns primarily on either edge, but Overshown is prone to missed tackles due to his aggressive nature — he leads the team with a 16.7% missed tackle rate.
Kendricks leads the defense with 95 tackles. Overshown has 75, and safety Donovan Wilson has 55; safety Malik Hooker has 50. The team has seven interceptions this season. Cornerback Trevon Diggs has two and is the only player with more than one.
Dallas uses a lot of sub-package and nickel personnel. Expect to see slot cornerback Jourdan Lewis on the field often. DaRon Bland returned to action against Washington after off-season Lisfranc surgery, but Trevon Diggs did not play. Diggs (knee) was limited in practice on Monday. If Diggs can’t play, Josh Butler will likely start again. Israel Mukuamu operates as the BIG NICKEL or BIG DIME player for Zimmer.
Dallas has a strong secondary when they’re healthy. If Diggs does play, it will be the first game of the season with Diggs, Bland, Wilson, and Hooker roaming the secondary. Juanyeh Thomas is another big physical player in the secondary who earned more snaps against Washington, and Marist Liufau is another second-level player who works in sub-packages.
The spine of the defense was suspect early in the season; it’s one reason why they surrendered so much on the ground, albeit the Giants generated little against them in Week 4. Osa Odighizuwu is a respectable defensive lineman with more pass-rushing upside than run-stopping ability. Golston is a bit better against the run but isn’t aligned inside the 2i-shade often.
Nose tackle Mazi Smith’s career seemingly turned around in Week 4 against the Giants offensive line. He hasn’t replicated that performance, which Pro Football Focus substantiates. His PFF grade against the Giants was 88.4. His next highest grade was last week against Washington — a 69.6. If you go to his profile, there’s a lot of red.
Kneeland’s injury makes Dallas even weaker in the trenches. With no Lawrence, this may lead to more snaps for Lival Joseph, Carlos Watkins, or Tyrus Wheat.
Giants game plan
The Giants average 14.8 points per game. This is worse than the Jason Garrett offenses of 2020-2021. Drew Lock may be the starter with Tommy DeVito injured and both Evan Neal and Jermaine Eluemunor were DNP on Monday. This could go sideways really quickly.
New York could attempt to establish the run against this beat-up defensive line. Own the line of scrimmage and try to move the football to set up the play-action pass. One thing is for sure: the Giants have to get Malik Nabers involved early. Not because he complained, but because he’s correct — this offense is not talented enough not to feature Nabers.
Double moves worked against Dallas in Week 4 but the passes were not completed. Condensing the formations against Zimmer’s man coverage and releasing outside receivers underneath inside receivers to move the football, the Giants saw some success in the second half against Tampa Bay when they made that adjustment.
Lock could offer a reprieve due to his penchant and ability to target deep. A completed deep shot would also lessen the aggressiveness on everything underneath, which is the modus operandi of the Daboll offense with the Giants. However, there’s a reason why Lock wasn’t starting over DeVito.
If the Giants had any faith in Lock, he would have started over DeVito and played for a possible extension to be the bridge quarterback for the next face of the franchise. Lock never appeared comfortable in training camp. He was always one read and bail, and we saw that manifest in his limited preseason snaps.
If Lock plays poorly and looks lost against Dallas, it will reflect so poorly on Joe Schoen, who failed to bring in legitimate competition Daniel Jones, who was recovering from a torn ACL. It is a bad look for the Giants in a pair of seasons as ugly as Sloth.
Lock was in the building all offseason and took first-team reps in mini-camp and OTAs when Jones was still out with his injury. He has worked with the second team all year. This staff understands his strengths and limitations and decided to play DeVito over him. Maybe Lock will figure it out when the lights are brightest. Crazier things have happened, and I’m sure Daboll is crossing his fingers.
Final thoughts
Both teams would like to forget the 2024 season. The Giants are on the verge of complete collapse in front of the nation. It’s a tough spot to be on the road against a beat-up defense that still has Micah Parsons and may be receiving a completely healthy secondary. Dallas should win this game.
