Sam Darnold led the Vikings to a win over the Bears in overtime after Minnesota Vikings defense and special teams gave up an 11-point lead with seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. When the Vikings gotta have it, you don’t see Darnold throwing short of the sticks.

The biggest ding against Darnold this season has been his turnovers, but those haven’t really cost the Vikings any wins this season. He had no turnovers in the Vikings’ loss to the Rams, and his one turnover against the Lions was hardly decisive. It gave them the ball at their own 28 yard line with 5:39 left in the second quarter. It’s true that Darnold’s turnovers have put more pressure on the Vikings defense to deliver in some games, but equally Darnold has helped deliver victories in games when they needed points late.

Darnold Has Been Clutch When the Game is in Doubt

The interesting thing about Darnold’s performance this season for the Vikings has been his ability to play his best when the outcome of the game is more in doubt. That performance could come at the beginning of the game when it’s still 0-0 or a one-score game, or late to secure a close victory, or sometimes mid-game when a big lead for the Vikings has been narrowed to a small one. But whatever the circumstances, Darnold has performed best when the Vikings’ chance of winning the game is closer to 50%, and worse when it’s in or approaching more of a garbage time situation.

Consider these four charts, which represent quarterback EPA/play on the vertical axis and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) on the horizontal axis. Upper right corner represents best overall quarterback performance.

Win Probability 0-100% (no garbage time filter)

Win Probability 90-10%

Win Probability 80-20%

Win Probability 70-30%

Looking at the progression of charts above, which go from no filter to 70-30% win probability filter in 10% increments, and you can see how Sam Darnold performs better when the outcome of the game is more in doubt. Other quarterbacks, like Jared Goff for instance, get progressively worse with increasing garbage time filters.

In fact, Sam Darnold is the top quarterback in the league in terms of EPA+CPOE composite beginning with the first win probability filter, and increasingly so as the filters get larger.

I would not consider a 70-30% win probability filter to exclusively filter “garbage time” as games can swing just outside of that range and not be garbage time, but most would consider win probability outside of the 90-10% window to be garbage time, and the 80-20% window is a frequently used garbage time filter.

What Difference Does Darnold’s Filtered Performance Make? So What?

There are two takeaways from these filtered performance stats that are worthwhile. First, Darnold’s stats are not puffed up by garbage time against bad teams. Sometimes there are quarterbacks that have good season stats but then don’t perform as well in the playoffs- when usually there is little or no garbage time.

The second takeaway is that Darnold has played his best when it matters most. As a measure of “the clutch factor” Darnold’s filtered performance measures up as clutch. That could come into play during the postseason as well.

“Being at your best when your best is required”

Anyone who’s listened to more than a handful of Kevin O’Connell’s press conferences will have heard him talk about his mantra of, “being at your best when your best is required” and that is something Sam Darnold seems to have taken to heart on the field.

He’s been able to step up against good teams and good defenses and bad when the game has been more in doubt. He came up short against the Lions due to a lack of time (he only had 15 seconds for the final drive) than lack of performance (he had gotten them to near mid field), while in the Rams game there wasn’t much that he missed during the entire second half. He had a total of 12 pass attempts in the entire second half, completed nine of them- all “successful” plays in terms of yards gained, first down, etc., another was a drop, with two incompletions. It wasn’t the best outing by the rest of the offense in that game, and maybe not the best play-calling effort from Kevin O’Connell, but Darnold still turned in a passer rating of 128.8 in that game, along with a 79.1 QBR, both excellent numbers.

In other games Darnold has helped get the Vikings off to a strong start offensively and/or finish strong to secure the win, often delivering explosive plays in the process. That quality about Darnold hasn’t really shown up much in previous years, in part because there never was much of an opportunity for it to do so. Being on bad teams didn’t give him much to work with and often led to being on the wrong end of garbage time situations, and his injury history also cut his seasons short.

But now that Darnold has a better situation around him, that clutch quality has been on display. He showed that while at USC, most memorably with his clutch performance in the Rose Bowl against Penn State as a freshman. He threw for 453 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT in that game.

Darnold Has Been Top Ten Overall Too

If not for his turnovers, there would likely be more buzz about Darnold’s performance this season than there has been already. And even with them, he’s been roughly a top ten starter so far this season. Some overall stats:

• 2nd in Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) +5.8%
• 9th in passer rating (101.3)
• 14th in QBR
• 10th in EPA+CPOE composite (0.140)
• 11th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (ANY/A) (6.94)
• 7th in overall PFF grade among starting QBs
• 7th in adjusted completion percentage (78.0%)
• 3rd in Average Depth of Target (ADOT) (9.4 yards)
• 4th in Touchdowns (21)
• 2nd in Big Time Throws (22) and 3rd in Big Time Throw rate (6.1%)
• 6th in adjusted EPA/play through week 11 (see chart below)

There is room for debate on what the best measures of quarterback performance are, but most would agree looking at several broad-based metrics from passer rating and QBR to CPOE, ANY/A, EPA, and PFF grade provides a good approximation of quarterback performance.

Next Two Months Crucial for Darnold’s Future Net Worth

Whatever Sam Darnold has shown so far, it won’t be worth much if he fades down the stretch. Winning in the playoffs will be especially important for Sam Darnold and his next contract. That remains unlikely to be with the Minnesota Vikings, as they have J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings and Kevin O’Connell, aka The Quarterback Whisperer, ready to groom him for greatness. The Vikings also have needs at multiple other positions that will use up their salary cap space and put them in a better position to contend short and long-term.

But a Sam Darnold that takes the Vikings deep into the postseason could be setup for a $50 million/year payday next spring.

Stay tuned.

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