Ramalytics: LA will have opportunities to force turnovers vs Eagles

Jalen Hurts puts the ball in harm’s way as often as any other NFL QB

It’s clear that the Los Angeles Rams’ defense is improving. A big driver of their upward trajectory is their recently developed ability to force mistakes and create turnovers. As a result, LA has won four of their last fives games and are squarely back in the NFC West race and NFC playoff picture.

In Los Angeles’ most recent five games, they’ve forced a total of 11 turnovers—averaging a little over two per matchup:

vs Las Vegas Raiders: 4 (W)

vs Minnesota Vikings: 0 (W)

at Seattle Seahawks: 3 (W)

vs Miami Dolphins: 2 (L)

at New England Patriots: 2 (W)

Rams will get their chances against Eagles:

As dangerous as Jalen Hurts can be for opposing defenses, he’s been a walking turnover this season with the Philadelphia Eagles.

In Pro Football Focus (PFF)’s turnover-worthy play (TWP) rate, Hurts puts the ball in harm’s way at the third-highest frequency in the NFL amongst QB’s with more than 227 dropbacks at 4.1%. Only Drake Maye (5.2%) and Dak Prescott (4.7%) are higher.

Hurts has the same number of big-time throws as turnover-worthy plays at 14, which is generally not a positive indicator for passing production. He’s notched multiple TWP’s in half of his ten games, including four against the Green Bay Packers and three versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Philly’s signal caller only has five interceptions on the season, so he’s been fairly lucky for most of these plays to fall harmlessly incomplete.

Hurts has also fumbled seven times on the season. He had two fumbles against each of the Packers and Buccaneers, and he’s fumbled in 50% of the Eagles’ games.

A turnover-hungry Rams defense will host a turnover machine at quarterback. Can LA keep their strong steak of forcing mistakes alive and help the Rams come out on top of this important matchup?

Inversely, Rams must take care of the football:

As TST’s Kenneth Arthur wrote this week, the Rams are 0-3 when they have multiple turnovers on offense and 5-2 when they limit mistakes to one or none. On the flip side, the Eagles are 6-0 when they create a turnover and just 2-2 when they don’t.

Running back Kyren Williams has the most fumbles at his position across the NFL over the last two seasons. Matthew Stafford ranks eighth in TWP rate at 3.6%. He has the same number of turnover-worthy plays as Jalen Hurts, but is creating big-time throws at a dramatically lower rate: Stafford at 3.0% versus Hurts’ 5.1%. Stafford has fewer big-time throws (11) than turnover-worthy plays (14) and has similarly had good luck with only seven interceptions reflected in the traditional stat sheet.

The oldest adage in professional football is that turnovers are the great equalizer. On paper, the 5-5 Rams seem outmatched against the 8-2 Eagles; however, knowing what we know about turnovers, the Rams have a chance to force mistakes and on the other side take care of the football to keep this one closer than it probably should be.

If they win the turnover battle, the Rams can upset Philadelphia Sunday night at SoFi Stadium.