Week 11 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis:

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Football Outsiders, and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

On the first 5 Jets’ drives, the Colts defense was perfect, forcing 5 three-and-outs and an average of only 5.4 yards per drive. Unfortunately, they softened a bit right before the half, giving up a 76 yard touchdown and then allowing 4 more scores in the 2nd half.

However, 2 of those scoring drives were a result of short fields due to an Anthony Richardson sack fumble and a poor Rigoberto Sanchez punt paired with a fair catch interference call, so there wasn’t much the defense could do about that.

Overall, the Colts held the Jets to 253 yards of total offense and a 55.6% Drive DSR which is a 94th percentile defensive effort. So despite giving up 27 points, the defense played well.

TEAM TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

In most weeks, giving up 2.25 points per drive isn’t good, but so many offenses went off in week 11 that the Colts defense ranks 11th.

They earned the 3rd best defensive DSR, the 7th best defensive yards per play, the 2nd best overall defensive conversion rate (9th best on 3rd downs) and the 7th lowest opponent success rate.

It was often the Jets starting field position (3rd shortest fields) that allowed them to score even though the Colts were pretty good at shutting them down.

On the year, I have the Colts defense tied for 13th in defensive PPD and 17th in DSR. DVOA has them ranked 17th, so that lines up.

PASS TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

Aaron Rodgers has been having a tough year and the Colts’ defense made it tougher. The Jets had the 6th worst passing by EPA per dropback and the 2nd worst Pass Success Rate. With the worst passing conversion rate of any QB, Rodgers could not move the chains. That is no real surprise since he had the 5th lowest net yards per dropback of the week.

On the season, the passing defense jumps 2 spots to 14th by defensive EPA/d and 17th in defensive PSR. DVOA is not nearly so optimistic ranking the Colts pass defense at 22nd. DVOA is adjusted for opponent, so that probably explains the difference.

RUSH TOTALS

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

The Colts were not as successful against the run, but they weren’t horrible. They gave up the 6th lowest conversion rate, but allowed 2 explosive rushes for 34 yards and a TD. With only 19 carries that skews the EPA per carry a lot and the Jets managed the 6th best EPA per carry in week 11.

For the week, I have the Colts at 15th against the run and on the year, they sit at 11th. DVOA has them 16th, which feels a little more right to me.

CONCLUSION & LOOK AHEAD

The Jets are a bad offense, so I’m not going to pretend like this was some heroic defensive effort. However, I’m not going to take anything away from them either. They did their job and did it pretty well.

Next up, the Colts go from one of the worst offenses in the league to arguably the best. The Detroit Lions score the most Points per Drive in the league and they do it with the 2nd best Drive Success Rate. They average just shy of 400 yards a game (3rd most 394.7) and lead the NFL in explosive plays.

Their passing earns the 4th highest EPA per dropback and the 2nd highest Passing Success Rate. They average almost 8 yards per dropback (2nd best 7.9 yards) which helps them secure the best passing conversion rate in the NFL, getting first downs on over 41% of their pass plays.

They run game is even better. I rank them #1 in adj Rush Success Rate to go along with the #1 EPA per carry and a #1 DVOA rank.

This is going to be a nightmare.