The Tampa Bay defense has not been great
The 2-8 New York Giants host the 4-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12. Both teams are fresh off a bye week. Tampa Bay is favored by 5.5 points, and the Over/Under is 41.5 points. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers were 4-2 but lost four games in a row, mostly in a competitive fashion.
The Giants finally turned the page on starting quarterback Daniel Jones and promoted third-string quarterback Tommy DeVito to primary signal caller. Drew Lock will remain as the second-string quarterback.
Buccaneers statistics
DeVito will face a Todd Bowles coached defense that emphasizes stopping the run while blitzing the quarterback at a 29.1% rate (seventh highest). Expect a loaded box against the Buccaneers, who rank second in loaded box rate. According to NFL Pro, the Buccaneers load their box at a 56.4% rate; this number advantage is reinforced with Vita Vea in the middle — one of the best run-stopping defensive linemen in the league.
Despite the focus, Tampa Bay is league average in rushing yards allowed; they surrendered 125.1 rushing yards per game. Baltimore rushed for 244 yards against the Buccaneers in Week 7. They held the Chiefs and Falcons to less than 130 rushing yards in Weeks 8 and 9 and the 49ers to just 75 rushing yards in Christian McCaffrey’s return.
The run defense is the strength, and Kirk Cousins exploited the pass-defensive weakness in Week 5 to the tune of 509 yards and four touchdowns. The Buccaneers allow the third-most passing yards per game (264.1) and total yards per game (389.3). They’re 27th in points surrendered (26.6).
Bowles’ defense allows the 24th-highest third down completion rate (43.3), and they’re tied at 17th in red zone touchdown percentage (57.89) with the New England Patriots. They recorded five interceptions and 10 forced fumbles.
Tampa Bay is tied with the Eagles and Browns at ninth in the league with 28 sacks. Vea leads the team with five. Second-year defensive linemen Calijah Kancey has four, and Lavonte David and Logan Hall have three sacks. C.J. Brewer, Yaya Diaby, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, and Anthony Nelson each have a pair of sacks.
Second-year edge defender Yaya Diaby leads the Buccaneers with 38 pressures; Vea has 24, and Tryon-Shoyinka has 20. The next highest is veteran linebacker Lavonte David with 15. David also leads the team with 72 tackles; just behind him is safety Jordan Whitehead with 71 and linebacker K.J. Britt with 61.
Giants’ game plan
There was a discernible difference in Brian Daboll’s 2023 offense with Tommy DeVito at the helm. DeVito targeted outside the numbers:
QB Tommy DeVito averaged 7.2 yards per attempt throwing outside the numbers in 2023, completing 6 of his 8 touchdowns to these areas of the field while not throwing a single interception on 94 such attempts.
Daniel Jones has averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt on throws outside…
— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) November 19, 2024
We discussed DeVito’s penchant to throw outside the numbers last season. This ability gave Daboll a different approach, and the Giants found moderate success, but DeVito struggled to target the middle of the field. DeVito was 7 of 17 with one touchdown and two interceptions when targeting beyond ten yards between the numbers, with zero completed passes of 20 yards between the numbers.
The Giants will attempt to run the football and work the play-action passing attack with bootlegs/rollouts. Daboll will dial up three-level sail concepts and other No. 3 or tight-end corner routes underneath clearouts from 3×1 or 2×2 sets.
Starting CB Zyon McCollum hurt his hamstring in Week 10. He may not be available on Sunday, which leaves Josh Hayes and Tyrek Funderburk. However, Jamel Dean is trending in the right direction after missing four weeks with a hamstring injury. The health of McCollum and Dean is crucial for the Buccaneers’ secondary.
Before his injury, McCollum allowed just eight yards across 70 coverage snaps in Weeks 8 and 9; McCollum was targeted on just 8.6% of his coverage snaps in Weeks 8-9, the fourth-lowest rate among outside cornerbacks with at least 50 coverage snaps during that span.
Whitehead, star safety Antoine Winfield Jr., and nickel Christian Izien round out the rest of the secondary. Rookie Tykee Smith hurt his knee and may not play in the game. Malik Nabers should win any of these matchups, but can DeVito deliver passes to Nabers promptly and accurately?
Daboll will call this game to DeVito’s strengths, which are using his quick release and attempting to create immediate openings to be seized. DeVito is more aggressive than Jones, but he does have a knack for sitting in the pocket too long; he was sacked 37 times on 178 passing attempts with a 37.4% pressure-to-sack ratio.
The Giants should create half-field reads with easy check-downs for the young quarterback. Some of those check-downs should be made to either Theo Johnson or Tyrone Tracy Jr. The Buccaneers linebackers have combined to allow the most receptions (52), most yards (671), highest completion percentage (86.1%), and third-most yards per target (9.3) among all linebacking corps when targeted in coverage this season (from Week 10).
Suppose DeVito can successfully stretch the field horizontally toward the sideline. In that case, the Giants may be able to create more space between the middle-hook and curl-flat defenders for Wan’Dale Robinson or other Giants’ receivers against Cover-3. If Bowles decided to man up, the Giants should run condensed pick/rub routes to free up receivers and have DeVito quickly get the football out of his hands.
Kancey and Vea will prove to be a lot for the interior part of the Giants’ offensive line. Bowles will likely look to isolate one-on-one matchups and put Diaby across from Evan Neal. Expect David to blitz toward Neal’s side, with Diaby or Tryon-Shoyinka initially occupying Neal. It would behoove the Giants to keep a tight end or running back close to Neal.
Final thoughts
Can Tommy DeVito recreate his magic from the 2023 season? That’s the big question. The Buccaneers will be well rested and likely receive reinforcements in Dean and possibly McCollum, but their overall pass defense is beatable. Still, Tampa Bay is jockeying for playoff contention and the Giants are morning bread in the toaster. Daboll is coaching for his job, and we’ll likely learn more about his prospects after the game on Sunday. I have the Buccaneers winning, 24-17.
