Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts preview, prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions are on a roll, and they’re going to need to keep rolling if they want to earn the NFC’s top seed. At 9-1, they hold the top spot, but both the Vikings (8-2) and Eagles (8-2) are on their tails.

They can’t afford a slip-up against the 5-6 Indianapolis Colts this week—a team they’re clearly better than.

Let’s take a closer look at the Week 12 matchup, then make a prediction in our Lions vs. Colts On Paper preview.

Lions pass offense (9th in DVOA) vs. Colts pass defense (19th)

Jared Goff bounced back from his five-interception performance with arguably his best performance in a Lions uniform. For the season, the Lions have been lighting opponents’ defenses on fire. They’ve not only finished with a 100+ passer rating in seven of 10 games, but over 120 in five of 10. With all due respect to the DVOA ranking, I think this is a top-five passing attack in the league, not just top-10. Some other notable statistics:

• 9.2 yards per attempt (first)
• 113.8 passer rating (second)
• 73.0 completion percentage (first)
• 0.259 dropback EPA (third)
• 53.0% dropback success rate (first)

Goff, in particular, has been outstanding since struggling out of the gate. Take away the first two games of the season, and Goff’s numbers have been outstanding:

Pass protection has been a minor issue, ranking 14th in PFF pass blocking grade, ninth in pass block win rate, and 16th in pressure rate allowed. But that obviously hasn’t slowed the passing attack much.

It hasn’t been a great year for the Colts’ pass defense, but it hasn’t been all bad. Though they’ve allowed six of 11 opponents to eclipse a passer rating of 100, they’ve also held four below 90. Still, teams are regularly eclipsing their averages against this unit.

Here’s a look at their raw statistics:

• 7.6 yards per attempt (26th)
• 97.3 passer rating (20th)
• 69.5 completion percentage (29th)
• 0.056 dropback EPA (13th)
• 46.1% dropback success rate (15th)

It’s hard to exactly pin down why the Colts are struggling. They have capable pass rushers, but only rank 18th in pressure percentage, t-15th in sacks, 18th in PFF pass rush grade, and 21st in pass rush win rate.

In terms of coverage, they rank ninth in PFF grade, and have one of the best nickel defenders in Kenny Moore II. Outside cornerback Jaylon Jones is also tied for fifth in pass breakups, so Lions receivers will have a challenge this week. That said, the Colts rank 26th in DVOA against tight ends, and with Sam LaPorta expected back this week, we could see a big game from him.

Player to watch: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Kenny Moore II. Per PFF, Moore II has not allowed a single touchdown in coverage this year, while also notching five passes defended and an interception. His 80.6 PFF coverage grade is seventh in the NFL. Meanwhile, St. Brown is coming off his best career game and ranks seventh in PFF grade. A true strength vs. strength matchup

Advantage: Lions +2.5 The Lions’ passing attack looks nearly unstoppable right now, and while the Colts have an okay defense, they aren’t particularly great at anything.

Lions run offense (1st) vs. Colts run defense (16th)

No team has yet to hold the Lions under 100 rushing yards, and they’ve now eclipsed 160 yards in five of 10 games. The only team to really hold them in check was the Texans, and by the end of the game, the Lions had worn them down, too.

The Lions are nearly atop the league in just about every category when it comes to running the ball:

• 4.7 yards per carry (eighth)
• 152.2 yards per game (third)
• 0.042 rush EPA (second)
• 45.2% success rate (second)
• 13.6% stuffed percentage (fifth)

The offensive line is arguably the best run blocking unit in football, ranking third in PFF run blocking grade (76.7), nine in run block win rate (73%), and first in adjusted line yards (5.11).

The Colts run defense has been all over the place this season, but there’s been more bad than good. They started out horribly, recovered a bit, but have at least been acceptable the last month. Some of that lines up with the return of defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who played in Weeks 1 and 2, but missed the next five games with an injury. Since returning against the Texans, they’ve done an okay job, but they’re certainly not a dominant unit.

For the season, they rank 13th in yards per carry allowed (4.4), 13th in rush EPA (-0.119), 22nd in adjusted line yards (4.56) and 12th in success rate (38.1%). That said, they are tied for the most 10+ yard rushes allowed, and the Lions just so happen to rank sixth in that category on offense.

Player to watch: DeForest Buckner. Buckner has an 11.2% run stop rate per PFF, which ranks fifth among all defensive tackles with at least 52 run defense snaps. He’ll have his work cut out for him, though, as he’s usually lined up against the right side of the offensive line. Right guard Kevin Zeitler (86.8 PFF grade, third) and right tackle Penei Sewell (90.2, first) are two of the best run blockers in football.

Advantage: Lions +2. This is a little tighter than the passing matchup, but there are very few defenses that can hold Detroit’s run game in check. Compared to the Texans run defense (second in DVOA) that saw some success a few weeks ago, this Colts team doesn’t measure up.

Colts pass offense (19th) vs. Lions pass defense (2nd)

*Joe Flacco starts
**Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco

I’m not entirely sure what to make of the Colts passing offense. There are a lot of terrible games in this chart, but they’re intermixed with a couple of really good performances, including last week’s game against a very respectable Jets defense. The benching of Anthony Richardson and subsequent re-starting throws another wrench into the predictability of this game. He certainly looked a lot better last week out of the benching, but how sustainable is that? It’s impossible to know.

For the season, the stats aren’t great. They rank 19th in yards per attempt (7.2), 29th in passer rating (79.4), 21st in dropback EPA (0.003), and 27th in success rate (41.7%).

It’s easy to blame some of that on Flacco, but there doesn’t seem to be really any correlation between quarterback and pass offense efficiency.

The one thing that’s worth pointing out is that the Colts have been pretty good at avoiding sacks. Richardson is very good at escaping pressure, but the offense live—particularly now that they’re missing three starters—gives up a lot of pressure (37.8%, seventh most). While the pass blocking ranks sixth in PFF grade (75.0), they’re 31st in pass block win rate (50%).

I’ve mentioned multiple times in this section that I’ve been at least a little skeptical of Detroit’s success here, as it appeared heavily dependent on interceptions, which could be tough to maintain all year. Well, not only have they maintained that by catching at least one interception in every game this season, but the other statistics are starting to slide into their favor as well.

For the season, they 10th in yards per attempt (6.8), ninth in completion percentage allowed (63.3), first in passer rating allowed (73.6), first in dropback EPA (-0.094) and ninth in success rate (41.2%). So the stats that aren’t heavily influenced by interceptions (Y/A, completion percentage, success rate), show that they’re still a top-10 pass defense. In other words, they’re legit.

However, they still very much struggle to generate pressure. Since Aidan Hutchinson’s injury, they’ve been heavily reliant on the blitz, and their pressure statistics have plummeted. They now rank 21st in pressure percentage (32.3%), 14th in pass rush win rate (42%), and while they still rank fourth in pass rush PFF grade (78.3) that is being heavily influenced by Hutchinson’s 95.0 grade. Their highest-graded defensive linemen in pass rush outside of Hutchinson are Alim McNeill (75.9), Za’Darius Smith (72.5) and Levi Onwuzurike (66.6).

Player to watch: Josh Downs. Downs is Richardson’s favorite target, averaging 7.9 targets a game—17th in the NFL and just a tic more than Amon-Ra St. Brown (7.8). He’s particularly important on third down, as he’s produced a total of 30 first downs this season, 19th among receivers.

Advantage: Lions +2. I’m a little reserved in my advantage here for a couple of reasons. For one, the Lions are still figuring out their pass rush, and while the Colts struggle against the blitz (-0.22 EPA per play, 23rd), Detroit is still figuring out the best way to consistently manufacture pressure. The other factor in this matchup is Richardson’s development. It would be ridiculous to think he’s completely turned a corner after one matchup, but the Jets defense is legit, and Richardson arguably had the best game of his young career against them.

Colts run offense (14th) vs. Lions run defense (5th)

Well, this is a mess. There’s no pattern, no consistency, no trends to pick up here. Sometimes the Colts run game is really, really good—like their 163 yard performance against that Texans run defense. Sometimes it’s terrible, like picking up 68 rushing yards against the Vikings two weeks ago.

They have managed at least 90 rushing yards in all but two games this year, and they’ve eclipsed 4.0 yards per carry in all but three, but compared to defensive averages, they’re all over the place.

There’s maybe a small correlation to the run game struggling more with Flacco in the lineup. He was the starting QB for some of their worst games (Jaguars Titans, Vikings, Bills). That makes sense, as Richardson brings an added element with his scrambling and designed runs.

Still, this reeks of an average rushing attack. They rank 11th in yards per carry (4.5), but 24th in rush EPA (-0.129), 29th in success rate (34.7%), and 29th in stuffed rate (20.5%). With three starting linemen expected to be down, they could be in for some trouble this week.

After a brief intermission where things were looking bad, the Lions run defense is back to their dominating ways. The Texans and Jaguars aren’t exactly the best rushing attacks, but holding them to a combined 97 rushing yards is impressive no matter how you slice it.

For the season, Detroit now ranks 12th in yards per carry allowed (4.3), fifth in rush EPA (-0.167), third in success rate (34.1%), and 12th in stuffed rate (17.6%).

This week will be an extra challenge without Alex Anzalone on the second level, and they’ve still got a lot to prove against a mobile quarterback—they haven’t truly faced a rushing quarterback since Week 3.

Player to watch: Richardson. Not only will the Colts have plays designed for Richardson to run, but they are also going to use him as a distraction when handing the ball off to the talented Jonathan Taylor. As defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said this week, “discipline has to be on high alert this week.”

Advantage: Lions +1. While the Lions have the clear statistical advantage, there’s enough uncertainty this week due to shifting variables. The Lions are shorthanded at linebacker, and the Colts seem to finally be leaning into Richardson’s mobility and strength. Indy’s beat-up offensive line may be the dealbreaker here, though, so I don’t expect the Colts to run rampant.

Last week’s prediction

On Paper moved to 9-1 overall and 7-3 against the spread, even though my 31-9 prediction was a bit too modest compared to the 52-6 final score. That said, I correctly predicted keeping the Jaguars out of the endzone. I don’t think any adjustments are necessary this week. I’m just not the kind of person to predict 40-point wins, no matter the advantage On Paper reveals.

Y’all in the comments didn’t have that kind of reservations. We had several blowout predictions that were somewhat close to the final score, but none closer than the 52-10 prediction from Treef!try.

Your prize? An old Lions record book that is currently being set on fire by the 2024 team.

This week’s prediction

The Lions come out with a +7.5 advantage. For comparison’s sake, they held a +8.5 advantage last week against the Jaguars. There’s no wild advantage for the Lions here, as the Colts are pretty much average at everything, so I think the game could stay close for a little bit. But, ultimately, the Lions just have too many ways they can beat them.

Lions 34, Colts 20.