• Oregon is the first to clinch a spot into the 12-team field: As the No. 1 team in the country with an 11-0 record, the Ducks are all but guaranteed a spot even if they lose their two remaining games.

• Ohio State–Indiana is massive for the bracket: Not only will Saturday’s showdown between the Buckeyes and Hoosiers likely determine who will make the Big Ten title game, but it would nearly assure the winner a spot into the playoff. 

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Estimated reading time: 22 minutes

A fortnight separates us from conference championship weekend in college football. Even with only two weeks remaining in the regular season, there are still plenty of schools that should feel good about their chances to make the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.

Here are the 16 teams who are still in control of their own destiny entering Week 13, and what it would take for them to be included in the final bracket.

Clinched: Oregon

As the top-ranked team in the country with an 11-0 record, it’s safe to assume that Oregon is the first team to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff. Even if the Ducks lose to Washington and in the Big Ten Championship Game, it’s hard to imagine they wouldn’t receive one of the seven at-large spots with an 11-2 record and wins over two other likely playoff teams in Ohio State and Boise State.

Might be able to survive another loss: Ohio State, Texas, Indiana

It’s possible that these three schools can survive with another loss for the rest of the season, but nothing is guaranteed.

The winner of this weekend’s colossal showdown between second-ranked Ohio State and No. 5 Indiana pretty much guarantees the winner a spot in both the Big Ten title game and a spot in the College Football Playoff. While the stakes are incredibly high, the loser isn’t necessarily out of the playoff race altogether, as long as it isn’t a blowout. 

The Buckeyes would need to beat Michigan in the season finale to finish with a 10-2 record. Then, Ohio State would be lumped into the grouping of two-loss SEC schools but would have a great road win over No. 4 Penn State and two close losses to Oregon and Indiana to fall back on. 

The Hoosiers would be in a much more precarious position even though it’d be 11-1 (assuming it beats Purdue next week). Indiana’s best wins would be over Michigan and Washington, two schools that will likely finish at 6-6. If the Hoosiers can at least keep it close to the Buckeyes, that would make their case much stronger. 

Like Indiana, third-ranked Texas doesn’t have too many marquee victories. At 9-1, the Longhorns’ best wins came over Vanderbilt and Florida, two schools currently outside the top 25. If Texas finishes 10-2, it might fall from No. 3 to outside the playoff altogether with the other 10-2 SEC teams fighting for spots.

Win out in the regular season: Penn State, Notre Dame, Alabama, Ole Miss, Georgia

These five schools can’t afford a loss in either of the next two weekends. 

Fourth-ranked Penn State (9-1) will likely host a first-round game as long as it takes care of business against Minnesota and Maryland. If the Nittany Lions lose either of those two games, they’re at serious risk of missing the playoff since their best win came over No. 25 Illinois.

No. 6 Notre Dame (9-1) doesn’t have a conference championship game to fall back on, so it only has two games remaining before the playoff. If the Fighting Irish lose to either Army or USC, they’ll probably drop out of the 12-team field. 

There’s a logjam of two-loss SEC schools fighting for the final playoff spots. If No. 7 Alabama, No. 9 Ole Miss or No. 10 Georgia lose another game, it’s hard to imagine the committee putting a 9-3 SEC team into the field. If the Crimson Tide beat Oklahoma and Auburn, they’ll most likely be playing in the SEC Championship Game. Even if they lose that, the committee likely wouldn’t punish a 10-3 Alabama for playing in the conference championship.

Win out: Miami (FL), Boise State, SMU, BYU, Texas A&M, Colorado, Army

These schools likely have to avoid a loss in the final two weeks and win their respective conferences to get into the playoff. 

The Big 12 was effectively guaranteed to be just a one-bid league after No. 14 BYU suffered its first loss of the season this past weekend. The Cougars (9-1) and No. 16 Colorado (8-2) control their own destiny in the conference but have teams like No. 21 Arizona State (8-2) and No. 22 Iowa State (8-2) ready to pounce if either slip up in the regular season.

The ACC is in a similar boat with No. 8 Miami (9-1) and No. 13 SMU (9-1). It’s very hard to imagine a two-loss ACC team making the field, so the Hurricanes and Mustangs must win out. And if either loses in the next two weeks, No. 17 Clemson (8-2) could steal their spot in the title game.

No. 15 Texas A&M (8-2) is one of the five SEC schools with two losses on the season, but the Aggies might not be able to make it into the playoff without winning the SEC. To do that, Texas A&M must beat Auburn and Texas to make the SEC Championship Game.

There’s a very interesting conversation to be had if both No. 12 Boise State (9-1) and No. 19 Army (9-0) win out. While many assumed only one Group of Five school would make the field, there could be a scenario where both the Broncos and Black Knights make it in. 

Boise State is currently ranked higher than any Big 12 school and would have a first-round bye at the moment. With only a three-point loss on the road to No. 1 Oregon separating the Broncos from an undefeated season, they’d have a great chance to get in if they win out.

While seven spots currently separate Boise State and Army in the rankings, the Black Knights can make that up in a hurry. They take on eighth-ranked Notre Dame this Saturday and face No. 20 Tulane in the AAC Championship Game. A 12-0 record with those two victories would be incredibly hard to leave out of the playoff.