Giants-Buccaneers Week 12: Can the Giants slow down the Buccaneers’ offense?

The New York Giants return home after an incredibly consequential loss in Munich, Germany, to host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Both teams are coming off of a much-needed bye week, and hoping to stop their respective slides. The Giants are on a 5-game losing streak and carrying a dismal 2-8 record following their loss to the Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are on a 4-game losing streak and are 4-6 on the season.

The matchup between the Giants’ defense and the Buccaneers’ offense is a showdown of strength vs. strength. The Giants’ defense is flawed, but nobody can say that they haven’t outplayed the offense this year. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have one of the top offenses in the NFL.

While the flip side of the coin — the matchup between the Giants’ offense and the Bucs’ defense — is a resistible force against a moveable object, this is the matchup around which the game could pivot.

This game will also see the return of Sterling Shepard and Ben Bredeson (as well as Thomas McGaughey) to the Meadowlands.

Can the Giants stop it from being a revenge game?

Stats that matter

Note: With offensive EPA, positive is better. For defensive EPA, negative is better.

The rebirth of Baker

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers weren’t expecting a long-term answer at the quarterback position when they signed Baker Mayfield to a paltry one-year, $4 million contract in 2023. Mayfield, the first overall pick of the 2018 draft, was widely viewed as a bust after a disappointing end to a rollercoaster career with the Cleveland Browns.

The Bucs weren’t in a position to find Mr. Right at the quarterback position in the draft — Tampa was drafting 19th overall in a top-heavy (at best) quarterback class. They were just looking for Mr. Right Now after the retirement of Tom Brady and Baker was simply meant to be a bridge who could get them to a better 2024 quarterback class.

Nobody really expected Baker to come in and play to the same level as Brady, but that’s exactly what he did. In doing so, Baker earned a 3-year, $100 million contract this year, and he’s been an excellent return on investment. This year, Baker has elevated his play well above that of 2022 vintage Tom Brady and is now playing like the the quarterback he was when the Browns made him the No. 1 overall pick.

The Buccaneers are 4-6 on the season, but their record has little to do with the play of Mayfield.

Mayfield is playing the best football of his career and appears to be a mature quarterback who’s in command of the field and the offense. In most circumstances he is playing with urgency without rushing, making solid decisions and navigating the defense well, and putting the ball where it needs to be.

Bakers’ crisp play and command of the offense allows the Buccaneers to get creative with their play design, which has been a necessity with the injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

This was a touchdown pass against the San Francisco 49ers prior to the bye week. The Buccaneers start out in a 3×1 set with tight end Payne Durham (number 87) going in motion. The motion, along with RB Rachaad White running directly toward the sideline at the start of the play simulates a running back screen. Baker quickly orients toward the far sideline, adding credence to the screen look. But, as he has done since college, Baker is simply using his body language to sell a play-fake. He has very quick feet and is able to reorient back toward the endzone, and get an accurate pass off as White turns his swing route into an angle route and the play suddenly morphs into a middle screen.

This isn’t a difficult play from a read perspective, but the choreography is very impressive. The play all hinges on the offensive line being disciplined and not getting too far downfield too fast, and the quarterback remaining composed. Baker stays under control throughout the play and manages to fit the ball around a leaping defensive lineman while making it catchable for White who turns upfield for the touchdown.

To get a look at Mayfield navigating the defense, we’ll go back to his first pass of the game. The Buccaneers are backed up with a third-and-4 on their own 10-yard line, hardly ideal circumstances for a passing situation.

The Buccaneers are in 11-personnel with all three receivers in a bunch to the top of the screen while the tight end (Cade Otten) is on the bottom. This is a 5-man protection, which is gutsy considering how good San Francisco’s defense is and the game situation.

Mayfield initially targets former Giant Sterling Shepard (17) in the slot, but quickly sees that CB number 2 has fallen off the outside receiver and Shepard is now bracketed. So Mayfield resets and reorients to his second option, Otten running a deep crossing route. Otten is initially covered, however the flat route from the running back creates traffic and separation from Otten.

Thanks to some pre-snap motion and the context clues from the defensive formation, Mayfield is able to determine that the 49ers are running zone coverage on the offensive right, while they’re using man coverage on the offensive left. He knows that he has a man-beater called on that side and simply needs to give it time to work, which he does with a hesitation and some slight pocket movement.

Baker delivers a ball that is slightly behind Otten. However, doing so helps prevent the closing defenders from being able to make a play on it, as well as prevent Otten from running into a big hit.

All in all, Mayfield is playing excellent football right now. The Giants will have their work cut out for them slowing his process enough the pass rush to get home. And they’ll need their pass rush in this game, as Mayfield will likely be able to exploit holes or mismatches in the Giants’ coverage.

Can the Giants slow the run?

The Giants’ run defense seemingly improved following their Week 2 loss to the Washington Commanders, but has been hemorrhaging yards on the ground since their Week 5 win over the Seattle Seahawks. They’ve surrendered a total of 894 yards on the ground over that 5-game stretch, an average of 178.8 per game and have allowed more than 120 rushing yards in each game.

The Giants will face a two-headed rushing attack in Rachaad White and rookie RB Bucky Irving. The two players share the load relatively evenly, though there are slight tendencies for each player.

White is the starter, but Irving has become Tampa’s primary runner, with 96 carries to White’s 80 carries. Irving is also the more effective runner of the two, averaging 5.1 yards per carry with four touchdowns to White’s 3.8 yards per carry and one touchdown.

White, meanwhile, is the Buccaneers’ primary receiving back. He has 41 targets on the season, third-most among active players, and is averaging 7.9 yards per catch with 4 touchdowns. The Buccaneers do use Irving as a receiver as well, and the rookie has 28 targets with 21 receptions averaging 7.2 yards per catch and with 1 touchdown.

The Giants shouldn’t key on run or pass depending solely on which back is on the field. However, there are trends and tendencies for how the Buccaneers us each running back. The Giants should be more prepared to stop the run when Irving is on the field, while they’ll need to be more alert for a pass to White.

The Buccaneers are almost exclusively a zone running team. They mostly rely on outside zone blocking schemes, which attempt to get the defense flowing in one direction and create running lanes through lateral stress. They also incorporate inside zone, pin and pull, and counter concepts as well. Likewise, they use motion on almost every single running play.

Teams can use pre-snap motion to a variety of effects. The Buccaneers usually use motion to create indecision in the front seven, slowing them and potentially moving defenders out of position. They also use motion to create numbers advantages on the play side, which is also the goal of pin and pull runs.

We’ll first look at White.

White has a solid blend of speed, quickness, contact balance, and vision as a runner. He does a good job of identifying his running lanes and quickly planting his foot in the ground to exploit them. He’s also a pretty determined runner and tough to get on the ground on initial contact. White is a good fit in the Bucs zone blocking schemes and is the type of runner to pick up what’s blocked for him as well as a bit extra. That said, White lacks great size at 6-foot, 215 pounds, and is somewhat “leggy” in his build. He’s at his best when he can get north-south quickly, and is a bit susceptible to being gang-tackled if he has to try to pick his way through traffick.

Irving, on the other hand, is a different type of runner.

Irving has a stout, low to the ground build at 5-foot-9, 192 pounds. And while he’s definitely a “quicker than fast” athlete who isn’t much of a home run threat, his quickness and agility can give defenses fits.

As we see above, Irving has quick feet and solid vision to both identify holes and defenders at the second level. He’s also more of a scat-back than White, using his low center of gravity to allow him to change direction, pick his way through traffic, or run through contact.

White is a more explosive runner and is more of a big-play threat, however Irving’s low center of gravity and quickness makes him more consistent on a down-to-down basis.

The return of Mike Evans

Both the Giants’ defense and the Buccaneers’ offense have been dealing with some significant injuries this year.

The Buccaneeers lost left tackle Tristan Wirfs to a sprained MCL suffered against the 49ers. It’s reportedly a mild sprain, and he’s been spotted on the practice field in a brace. However, the early word is that he’s expected to miss this game. Wirfs is one of the best offensive tackles in the game, and losing him could be a boon for the Giants’ pass rush as well as a hinderance to Tampa Bay’s running game.

That could be balanced by the return of receiver Mike Evans. Evans suffered a hamstring back in Week 7 against the Baltimore Ravens. That game also saw the loss of Chris Godwin for the year, which opened the door for Shepard to get an increased role in the offense.

The Giants will almost certainly put Deonte Banks on Evans if he’s on the field, which would likely be a decided mismatch for the second-year player. While Banks has struggled some when matched up against top receivers, that isn’t meant as a slight against Banks. Most corners struggle against Evans, who has a truly rare blend of size and athleticism to go with great skill. The Giants would probably have to double Evans to slow him down, however that could create opportunities for Shepard in the underneath area of the field.

Shepard still spends much of his time in the slot for the Buccaneers, however he’s used pretty differently than he was with the Giants. Most notably, Shepard’s average depth of target has jumped from 7.3 yards downfield in 2023 (and an average of 8.5 yards over the previous 5 years), to 11.4 in 2024. Shepard has seen approximately the same number of targets this year as he has seen on average in 2022 and 2023. Yet he has nearly as many first downs this year (seven) as he has the previous two (eight total), as well as more yards before the catch (137 to 123 in 2022 and 2023 combined). Rookie Dru Phillips has been a great addition, but he’s still a rookie going against an experienced and detailed route runner. Shepard will work in the short and intermediate are of the field along with TE Cade Otten.

The Giants will have to balance muddying the second level of the defense while also being able to play downhill to defend the run.

The Giants’ issues defending the run means that they’ll have to honor their run fits when the Buccaneers show run action. That could be an issue if the Buccaneers choose to show run and throw over the second level defenders to Shepard and Otten, or even Rachaad White and Bucky Irving.

How the Giants deploy their subpackages will be intriguing to follow this game. Per NFL NextGenStats, the Giants have used single high coverage shells on 69% of their opponents’ dropbacks this year. While they are based in Cover 4 looks, the Giants often rotate a safety down at the snap. At least one safety will likely be shaded to Mike Evans’ side, which could limit the Giants’ ability to drop another player down to help defend the run.

This is, of course, contingent on Evans returning and playing to his usual level.

The Buccaneers were able to take the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime and came within a score of beating the 49ers. The level at which Baker Mayfield has been playing has allowed them to stay functional despite their losses on offense. However, they are simply a different team with Evans on the field.

One way or another, the Giants’ defense will have its work cut out for it against the Buccaneers’ offense. The good news for the Giants is that the Buccaneers’ own defense is poor, which could help their offense take some pressure off the defense to make this a low scoring game. However, the defense can’t allow this to become a quarterback duel in Tommy DeVito’s first game as the Giants’ starter.