eupeptic (adj) – having or showing a good mood or disposition
Last week I said we should hang out and discuss Miami’s next wins each time they happen and, lo and behold: one down.
I’m certain our involvement as unpaid writers and even less paid readers was the tipping point for the team.
The Dolphins defeated the Las Vegas (read: Oakland) Raiders 34-19 in the first of many ‘must wins’ if the Fins want to make it into the postseason.
I assume they do. But I guess we’ll find out how badly.
Sustaining after a strong start is key
For three weeks in a row now, Miami’s offense has started hot. Where in previous weeks that momentum died off right after the first (likely scripted) drive, this time they kept the pressure on throughout the day.
With the exception of a very poorly executed sequence to end the first half (with only 45 seconds available to work with, in their mild defense), the Fins had drives of 16, 14, 14, and 10 plays, all resulting in scores (3 TDs and 1 FG), plus another two drives of 4 plays for points (another TD and one last FG).
That’s good. That’s good offense.
It appears that the Dolphins have figured out, for at least one full game, how to sustain the strong start(s) that they’ve begun making a consistent part of their play. The significance of doing so against a 2-8 team might be slightly diminished, but it’s indicative of positive progress in an area that was continually only right on the cusp.
Much like last week, Tua showed a little steppin’ in the pocket. Also like last week, some of his dance moves worked out great, while others ended up less than great, such as yet another fumble (though it was thankfully recovered by his friends).
While he’ll never be a Houdini between the tackles, seeing him start to extend plays more effectively (even with the looming risk of catastrophe) is encouraging to me. It’s been one of the weakest aspects of his skillset and two weeks in a row he’s made it happen.
The run game didn’t quite get off the ground to the same level as the passing game, but it should get a boost when Alec Ingold returns.
The Fins’ offense wasn’t The Greatest Show on Surf, with a distinct lack of big plays. And you know what? It didn’t matter. Mike McDaniel and his QB did the smart thing and nickel-and-dimed (yours and mine: did you cash in all your dreams?) their way down the field as the Raiders draped two safeties across the back end to reign in the downfield passing threat.
Boring?
Maybe.
Effective?
34 points worth.
Zach Sieler has become the defense’s anchor
Defensive tackle Zach Sieler was a 7th round pick of the Baltimore Ravens in 2018 out of collegiate powerhouse Ferris State. He famously lived borderline like Chris Farley as Matt Foley for a number of years, even after signing a big contract. His Wikipedia picture looks like a guy whose blood is more Monster Energy than hemoglobin and whose body hasn’t missed a dirt track race since ‘89.
And he, like O’Doyle, rules.
Despite his longshot path to the NFL, he has become the heart of the Dolphins’ defense. Even on weeks when his stats don’t jump off the page (though against LV they did, with 4 tks, 1 sack, 1 TFL, and 2 QB hits), he manages to bring an energy and focus to the defense that is glaringly absent when he’s absent. I hope he gets to play out his career as a Fin and maybe even win something substantial along the way.
In ‘dudes who came in with a much higher pedigree’ news: Jalen Ramsey is earning his paycheck. In my view, he’s right behind Sieler in terms of value to the defense, in both production and attitude. He doesn’t seem to take plays off, is moved around to take the hardest assignments (unless Brock Bowers is playing and then the defense will do nothing because he’s like the Ark of the Covenant and looking directly at him will melt your face, I guess), and leads the other guys by example. He may be wildly expensive, but I’m glad he’s with Miami.
The rest of the defense?
Eh.
Kader Kohou gave a Kader Klinic [TM] in how not to tackle on a late game play that will surely be the highlight of his least favorite film session of all time.
Anthony Weaver’s scheme was a throwback to classic Dolphins:they know the opponent has one weapon to neutralize and, just like Bill Belichick’s vaunted defenses of yore, they pretend that player isn’t there, put no one on him, and then act shocked when he sets records. Even the announcers were ragging on it and that’s when you know you done goofed.
Also, I can’t wait for Patrick McMorris to get healthy and, Cthulhu willing, replace Jordan Poyer at safety because he is still the worst Free Agent signing of this year.
Anywho.
Giving up 19 to the anemic Raiders offense doesn’t provide the rosiest outlook for the remaining games, but I trust Sieler and Ramsey (and Calais ‘Big Poppa Pump’ Campbell) to do everything in their power to get the defense to their potential as the final games play out.
The Raiders are kind of built to beat the Dolphins
Even though the Raiders aren’t a very good team, they’re constructed in a way that often gives Miami trouble.
They have an aggressive defense with a premiere pass rusher.
They have not one, but two high caliber tight ends.
They have a losing record when playing Miami in a game that the Dolphins must win to stay in the playoff conversation.
Historically, that’s enough to pencil in a Dolphins’ loss.
Like in that same history, today’s Dolphins have subpar linebackers and no one with the responsibility of covering the opposing tight end. That problem still persisted as Brock Bowers went bonkers with practically zero resistance, surely a symptom of everyone thinking he was Tyus Bowser the whole time.
Unlike in that same history, Miami’s offensive line held up well and made everyone’s favorite biker bar bouncer Maxx(imum) Crosby play like just a guy. He notched 5 tackles, but 0 pressures, 0 TFLs, and 0 sacks on the day.
So while some things are ‘always has been’, some others are actively improving and starting to shift some long held narratives.
Why, it seems like nothing can stop Miami now!
4th down conversions and fumbles could be lingering issues
Awwww nuts!
I’m not actually all that pessimistic about the 4th down conversions because, coming into the game, Miami was 4/17.
For all the math majors out there, that’s 24%, which is not very bueno.
However.
They were 2/2 on 4th down against the Raiders. That’s improvement. That’s good. I think MM is becoming better at both determining when it’s actually smart and not look-how-smart-I-am smart to go for it and selecting a better play for the situation. I’d love to see that continue.
Fumbles on the other hand (or out of the other hand, if you’re the Fins) are worrisome. The announcers said at one point that Tua has fumbled 22 times in his last 25 games. I couldn’t find any corroboration for that (and I spent seconds upon seconds trying), but even so, he has been dropping snaps and letting rushers slap the ball out of his grasp far too often as of late. It’s really been his glaring weakness since coming back from injury.
If he can fix that problem or, at the very least, get lucky enough to have it rear its head only in non-critical situations, then Miami’s chances go up considerably. Such a potentially momentum-shifting habit is hopefully the main area the coaching staff is trying to work with him on.
Or maybe we can secretly go back to the days of Stickum.
I’m good either way.
Miami’s playoff path is mostly laid out
On paper, the path for Miami to get to the playoffs is about as clear as Ben Stein’s eyes.
They have four games against teams with a losing record as of today (NE, NYJ x 2, and CLE), one against a team with a .500 record (SF, who is likely much better than that), and two against teams with a winning record (GB and HOU).
So. Win the games they ‘should’ win and they’ll finish 8-9 and miss the playoffs. Win just one of those ‘tougher’ games and they’re sitting at 9-8.
Each year that the NFL has played 17 games, at least one team with a 9-8 record has made the playoffs. But hardly every 9-8 team makes it (MIA, IND, LAC, and NO missed in 2021, PIT and DET in 2022, and CIN, JAX, IND, NO, and SEA all in 2023), so simply going 5-2 in their last 7 games may still not be enough.
Could they go 6-1?
Possibly.
Huh? What? Really? I dunno. Tell me in the comments below.
