Breaking down 3 key matchups from Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions with a deep statistical dive.
The Detroit Lions enter their Week 11 match-up against the Jacksonville Jaguars riding a 7-game winning streak but their momentum goes even deeper than that. The Lions are also riding a 4-game winning streak against the Jaguars in their head-to-head series, dating back to 2012. During those four games, the Lions have won by an average margin of 17 points/game which would clear this week’s spread of Lions-13.5.
Last season, after Week 8, the Lions win over the Las Vegas Raiders sent their Head Coach Josh Daniels packing. If the Lions can replicate their last match-up with the Jaguars in 2022, a 40-14 win at home, then they could be the grim reaper on another head coaching tenure. Unfortunately, Doug Pederson’s job security is relying on former first-round pick turned back-up quarterback, Mac Jones, who will be in his second consecutive start with Jacksonville. Making matters even worse, the Lions are returning home for only the second time in the last six weeks and Ford Field is expected to be in a frenzy.
Now, let’s take a look at what the Lions are up against with the NFL’s worst team (Only team at 2-8) in my three biggest matchups.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro.
Tale of Two Defenses
There was a lot of hype surrounding the hire of Jaguars defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Nielsen held the same role with the Atlanta Falcons last year, to overachieving success, after spending the previous six seasons with the New Orleans Saints. Nielsen’s defense took some early lumps after star cornerback Tyson Campbell went to the injured reserve following a Week 1 hamstring injury.
With the absence of Campbell, the Jaguars devolved into the worst pass defense in the NFL. Below are some of their metrics, and corresponding rankings, to illustrate their struggles in stopping opponents’ aerial attacks this season.
- +0.16 EPA/Pass (32nd)
- 106.2 Passer Rating Allowed (32nd)
- 69.9% Completion Percentage Allowed (31st)
- 2.93 seconds Opponent Time to Throw (30th)
- 29.7% QB Pressure Rate (29th)
- 5.4% Sack Rate (27th)
- 7.2 Yards Per Pass (32nd)
- 19 Passing TDs Allowed (29th)
- 14.6% Blitz Rate (32nd)
- 1,482 Yards After Catch Allowed (32nd)
- 3.6 Average Separation (23rd)
- +0.24 EPA/Pass in Nickel (32nd)
One look at those statistics, with the Jaguars allowing teams to dice them up — with high completion, low pressure, high YAC, and minimal blitzing – and you would expect Jared Goff & Company to take them under the hood and put on a mechanical clinic. Hold the flashlight higher and hand me a socket wrench, would you, Nielsen?
Unfortunately, the Lions offense should be in line for a slightly stiffer test than those bullet points would lead you to believe. Sometimes a September and October narrative doesn’t always hold true in November and December. The NFL is a long, evolving, season and some units, especially first-year system ones, can coalesce to become more formidable.
The Jaguars defense lost their prized cover corner Campbell for Weeks 2-6. They were also without safety Darnell Savage in Weeks 2-4, without tackling machine linebacker Foyesade Oluokun starting early Week 3 through Week 7, and without fellow linebacker Devin Lloyd in Week 4. That’s a lot of continuity holes in the Back-7 for Nielsen to have plugged up. Rookie third-round pick Jarrian Jones has also seen increased playing time since Campbell’s return in Week 7, primarily as their nickelback.
The Jaguars’ four worst games in EPA/Pass were in Weeks 3-6 while Campbell and others were missing:
- Week 3 @ Buffalo: +0.70 EPA/Pass
- Week 4 @ Houston: +0.30 EPA/Pass
- Week 5 vs Indianapolis: +0.16 EPA/Pass
- Week 6 @ Chicago: +0.36 EPA/Pass
In addition to those EPA/pass trends, the Jaguars ranked last passer rating allowed metric, which has also been much improved as of late. In the last three games, the Jaguars’ pass defense has only allowed an 84.6 passer rating over that span, ninth-best in the NFL. They’ve also only allowed five passing touchdowns in the last four games, as opposed to 14 passing touchdowns in the first six games.
This won’t be quite the cakewalk of a defense many are anticipating. It’ll be a good test for Goff—and a Sam LaPorta-less receiving corps—after his five-interception game in Houston. I’m sure Dan Campbell is telling the offense the same thing, pumping the Jaguars defense’s tires, and I fully expect Ben Johnson’s unit to respond with a complete game in their stadium.
A Dime A Dozen
The Jaguars interestingly have a healthy balance of mixing up their defensive personnel. They play the seventh most snaps of base personnel and the 19th most snaps of nickel personnel. However, their ability to stop the run in different personnel varies.
The Jaguars are 26th in EPA/rush allowed (+0.03) from base but are surprisingly strong allowing only -0.13 EPA/rush from nickel. Given this dichotomy, you would expect the Lions to run on first down, from personnel that forces the Jaguars into base defense. However, the Jaguars are ninth in the NFL with only a -0.11 EPA/rush allowed on first down. It’ll be a chess match to see how Ben Johnson approaches their defense on the ground.
The most interesting statistic for the Jaguars run defense isn’t from base or nickel personnel, and while this won’t be an overarching narrative for the gameplay, it’s something to keep in mind. The Jaguars have deployed dime personnel the ninth most in the NFL at 94 snaps (9.4 snaps/game). From dime personnel, the Jaguars are by far the worst run defense allowing a +1.13 EPA/rush with 91% of the runs coming on third down.
Listen, if you’re reading this, then I don’t need to tell you that you don’t need to twist Ben Johnson’s arm to gash teams on the ground in obvious passing situations. I don’t expect the Jaguars’ interior defensive line to be able to control the point of attack in that situation (or at all during the game).
I’ll be watching for Johnson to come out in 10- or 11-Personnel, go four-wide, perhaps even utilize a player like Amon-Ra St. Brown motioned into the backfield (as he’s done in the past) and let his offensive line take over against an unsuspecting defense that rolled out six defensive backs.
You’re Grounded, Mister
It’s tough to do a deep dive into the Jaguars offense given Mac Jones will be starting in place of Trevor Lawrence. For them to have any success, they’ll need to manufacture a way to make it work on the ground, despite also being without second-year ascending running back Tank Bigsby.
The Jaguars are middle of the road in most rushing offensive metrics (14th-18th in EPA/Rush, 10+ Yard Runs, Stuff Rate, Success Rate) however they have interesting metrics for Yards Before Contact (YBCo/Att) and Yards After Contact (YACo/Att). They’re 30th in the NFL with only a 0.77 YBCo/Att but are first in the NFL with a 3.94 YACo/Att. This implies that the Jaguars’ offensive line isn’t able to generate a lot of push prior to the running backs being met by a defender, but to their credit, the running backs are able to generate yards past the defender. Consider that music to D.J. Reader’s ears.
Looking further into the success of the Jaguars running backs on their own, using FTNFantasy’s DVOA metrics, the Jaguars are tenth with 1.30 Second-Level Yards/Attempt (yards earned between 5-10 yards past the LOS) and fifth with 1.17 Open Field Yards/Att (yards earned more than 10+ yards past the LOS).
The argument could be made that the most successful aspect of the Jaguars season has been Tank Bigsby and Travis Etienne’s abilities to create yards after contact. In fact, Bigsby leads the NFL (4.9 YACo/Att) and Etienne is second in the NFL (4.0 YACo/Att) at doing so. So not too much a drop of from Bigsby to Etienne this week in that aspect.
Given the running backs success in making their own yards, I’m sure Aaron Glenn has been preaching sound tackling and all eleven hats swarming to the football and the Lions’ defensive unit is one that is more than capable of doing so. The Lions are second in the NFL in mitigating yards after contact with a 2.41 YACo/Att. Gang tackling, and stopping ball carriers in their tracks, have been the secret sauce to the Lions’ run-defense success the last two seasons (besides playing a lot of base defense, single high safety looks, and man coverage).
The Lions’ defense should have a huge day if all three levels of the defense do their part in eliminating extra yards and making them put the ball in Mac Jones’ hands while behind the sticks. Josh Paschal, Jack Campbell, Alex Anzalone, Carlton Davis III, and their units should be up for the task.
