Week 11 Colts’ Opposing QB: An analysis of Aaron Rodgers

Thanks to the nflFastR project and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the upcoming opponent QB has performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

At 40 years of age and afer missing the 2023 season, is Aaron Rodgers the same QB he used to be?

DASHBOARD

• The Jets run a pass-first offense, with very little rushing success (7th edp, 26th arsr).
• Rodgers has faced tough defenses, that are not giving him zone looks (4th opd, 30th oz%).
• He has always had a quick time to throw and this year is no exception, which helps make him one of the least pressured QBs in the league (31st ttt, 30th pr%).
• Like always, he is a deep ball threat, who primarily makes short throws (27th adot). This year, however, he is not getting a lot of completions and has the 2nd worst cpoe (28th cmp%, 31st cpoe).
• His receivers are giving him about the expected amount of yac (15th yac, 17th yacoe), but his poor completion rate is depressing his average yardage (24th ypa).
• He is an old school QB that does not abandon a lot of passes, so his net yardage is not dramatically reduced when adding in sacks and scrambles, but his net average yards are still significantly below average (27th aa%, 26th ny/d).
• The poor yardage efficiency inhibits his ability to get first downs and TDs (21st 1st%, 18th TD%). He has kept his turnover rate below average (19th), but it is still much higher than what he is used to.

The Jets are a one-dimensional team and prior to the addition of Davante Adams, even that dimension was limited. However, so far, Rodgers has not been able to lift the team around him and he ranks 20th in EPA per dropback with a 23rd passing success rate.

HOW WELL?

He’s had 4-5 good games, so it’s not like you can stick a fork in him, but he has not been consistent at all.

HOW FAR?

He’s living off of short completions, which is not different from his pre-Jets career.

TO WHO?

Garrett Wilson is the Jets’ season leader in reception yards, with almost twice as many targets as the next closest pass catcher. However, since the addition of Davante Adams, Wilson drops to the #2 spot in targets.

HOW ACCURATE?

Accuracy has been an issue this year, but he is trending better and he is still a threat with deep passes.

HOW FAST?

He is almost always far below average in time to throw. He finds his first reads quickly and doesn’t hesitate to pull the trigger.

TO WHERE?

Most of his success has been over the middle and throws over 20 yards.