Why a strong game by Patriots against Bears could be an outlier
The New England Patriots defense dominated Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears in a 19-3 victory last week. Williams was overwhelmed by the Patriots pass rush, and the outing suggests that Jerod Mayo’s unit is turning a corner after a slow start to the year.
However, we often jump to conclusions far too quickly in the NFL. After diving into the advanced metrics surrounding the New England defense, there’s plenty of reason to conclude that this was more of a one-off than a sign of long-term improvement for the Patriots. After moving on from Bill Belichick, the Patriots still lack talent overall on their roster and have plenty of work to do this coming offseason and beyond.
I wouldn’t overrate New England’s defense ahead of this weekend’s matchup with the Los Angeles Rams. Here’s why:
Why Patriots’ domination of Bears was an outlier
New England recorded 23 total pressures on Williams in Week 10. Seven came from OLB Anfernee Jennings with another five from second-year standout Keion White.
These are the Patriots pressure totals from all other games this season:
Week 1 vs Bengals: 11
Week 2 vs Seahawks: 21
Week 3 vs Jets: 18
Week 4 vs 49ers: 12
Week 5 vs Dolphins: 11
Week 6 vs Texans: 14
Week 7 vs Jaguars: 4
Week 8 vs Jets: 13
Week 9 vs Titans: 14
Week 10 vs Bears: 23
Of the Patriots’ 141 pressures this season, White and Jennings account for 35 and 20, respectively. Those individuals comprise nearly 40% of the team’s total pressures. It will be key for the Rams to identify and have a plan for White and Jennings, because if you slow them down the Patriots have few other options that are capable of making you pay.
It’s also clear after reviewing the production over the first 10 games that the defensive outing against the Bears is not indicative of the Patriots’ recent performance. In the six games prior to Week 10, New England was averaging just 11 pressures per game before spiking all the way up to 23.
Rams fans know best that Geno Smith’s play style with the Seahawks invites pressure, as he seems to prefer pushing the ball down the field rather than routinely making the underneath throw. Seattle has also had its fair share of offensive line struggles this season, including the abrupt midseason retirement of starting center Connor Williams.
Rams play their best brand of football when Stafford is kept clean
Monday night’s loss against the Miami Dolphins was disappointing in nearly every aspect on the offensive side of the ball—and the offensive ineptitude wasted an impressive performance by Chris Shula’s young defense.
But leading up to the Week 10 set back, the Rams didn’t allow a single sack on Stafford in the previous two games against the Minnesota Vikings and Seahawks. Coincidence or not, those both turned into wins for Los Angeles.
Matthew Stafford’s pass is intercepted by Anthony Walker Jr. on third down. According to ESPN Research, he has thrown an interception in six straight games, tying his longest streak in his career.
— Sarah Barshop (@sarahbarshop) November 12, 2024
Stafford played his best game of the season against Minnesota on Thursday Night Football, though he easily could have left Seattle with four interceptions on the box score. If the Rams can hold up in pass protection, there is still hope for New England that they can catch Stafford on a downswing of his recently inconsistent play. Overall LA is the more talented team at this stage of its roster build.
Stafford in Week 8 and Week 9 without being sacked:
Vikings: 25 of 34 for 279 yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT, 2 BTT’s, 1 TWP, 81.8% ADJ comp
Seahawks: 25 of 44 for 298 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT, 3 BTT’s, 4 TWP’s, 63.4% ADJ comp
After the loss to the Dolphins, Stafford has now thrown an interception in six-straight games which ties the longest streak in his 16-year career. Another interception in New England would set a new watermark for him.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Rams are leaving sunny Los Angeles to play in Boston where Sunday’s weather forecast shows potential 17 MPH winds with gusts up to 35 MPG and a feels like temperature in the low 50 degrees. We’ve seen the Rams in earlier seasons struggle to acclimate to colder climates.
All-in-all, the Rams shouldn’t be scared of the Patriots defense despite them coming off a dominant outing against the Bears. If the offensive line can hold up in pass protection and Matthew Stafford keeps the ball out of harm’s way, the Rams should be able to leave Boston with a victory and earn their fourth win in five games.
