The Honolulu Blueprint: 10 keys to a Lions victory over the Jaguars

The Detroit Lions (8-1) just wrapped up a long stretch of road games, and are back inside the comfy confines of Ford Field for a Week 11 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8). If the Lions want to continue their hot streak, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.

Jaguars offensive and defensive schemes

For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 11 Preview: Breaking down Jaguars’ offensive and defensive schemes.

Key 1: Let Jared Goff respond

Jared Goff is coming off a five-interception performance, where he was certainly not at his best. The Texans consistently put pressure on him throughout the game and the majority of his passing attempts looked rushed and uncomfortable. That being said, he found a way to stop the bleeding, and by the fourth quarter, he was able to compose himself and lead the Lions to a comeback victory.

“He’s had his lumps over the years, and this was another one where it was just a little stumble and block, and he handled it as well as you possibly could imagine,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said of Goff. “[…] in the fourth quarter, he came out and was still firing that ball. A lot of guys would clam up and be afraid to make a mistake and he did not do that.”

The criticism towards Goff has been notable, and arguably warranted, despite coaches attempting to explain away why most of the interceptions were not his fault—i.e. a hail mary attempt at the end of the half, Sam LaPorta stumbles at the top of his route, and tipped passes that pinball around and happened to arrive perfectly for the defender.

This week is an ideal opportunity for Goff to get back on track. As described in our Jaguars scheme breakdown, Jacksonville is struggling to defend the pass:

• Passing yards per game allowed: 261.2 (30th)
• Passing yards per pass attempt: 8.0 (30th)
• Completion percentage allowed: 69.9% (31st)
• Passing touchdowns allowed: 19 (29th)
• EPA on passing attempts allowed: +0.16 (32nd)
• Yards after catch allowed: 1482 (32nd)
• Defending tight ends in passing game: DVOA 32nd

The opportunity will be there to let Goff cook, but despite the terrible numbers, the coaches are not taking the Jaguars’ secondary lightly.

“Yeah, I think you’re seeing the coverage start to tighten up,” Johnson said of the Jaguars defense. “This is an aggressive, press defense, whether they’re in single-high or two-high. They like to get up in your grill and challenge […] “So, talented, talented unit. I have a lot of respect for their defensive coordinator, good scheme, coaches them hard, and they have talent at all three levels all across the board. So, you have to take the rankings with a little bit of a grain of salt because if you fall asleep on a team like this, they’ll come out and embarrass you in a hurry.”

Key 2: Take what’s there and YAC them down the field

The game plan for letting Goff cook should have three elements, the first being to make simple throws, take what the defense is giving them, and allow the Lions’ skill players to create yards after the catch (YAC).

The Jaguars defense is designed to rush four and drop seven into coverage, with a heavy reliance on man coverage (37.8% of the time they’re in man, third most in the NFL). The Jaguars lean on their edge rushers to get pressure (starters Travon Walker and Josh Hines-Allen account for 68% of the team’s pressures) but if the edges are handled, there’s not much pressure from other avenues (they blitz just 14.6% of the time, last in the NFL) which allows quarterbacks time in the pocket.

For Goff, there will likely be no need to push the envelope, and he should feel comfortable taking what the defense is giving him.

Key 3: Attack the middle

Because the Jaguars rely on man coverage so often, they put their linebackers in tough spots, tasking them with covering tight ends and running backs over the middle of the field. Heading into this game, per DVOA, the Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL in covering tight ends and 27th in covering running backs.

While Sam LaPorta is trending towards not playing in this game, this could be Brock Wright’s opportunity for success. Wright has only surpassed 35 yards receiving in three career games (all in 2022, pre-LaPorta) but this game has the potential for him to top those numbers again.

As far as Gibbs, the Jaguars simply don’t have an answer for him in the passing game. The real question will be: How much will they exploit this matchup? Gibbs has seen at least five targets in three games this season and this one feels like it could be the fourth.

Key 4: Find JAMO

While the middle of the field should be aggressively attacked, Jameson Williams’ speed will be equally difficult to handle. He’s coming off one of the best games of his career and has proven he can be a reliable target.

“He’s really coming on and showing up,” Johnson said of Williams. “When you challenge him on the sidelines, he typically responds in a positive way and we knew, particularly with the turnovers, our margin for error had gone down, so he needed to make that play for us at that time and he did. But the level of confidence in him and his hands and his detail continues to rise.”

The Jaguars have been gashed by big plays all season, especially from speedy wide receivers, but they have tightened up of late, especially against Minnesota last week.

“They’ve given up some explosives, (but) they limited that to a larger degree last week, and they played good red zone defense and held (the Vikings) to field goals,” Johnson noted about the Jaguars defense.

The Vikings’ offense looked muddled and confused against the Jaguars, and when you combine that with Sam Darnold’s rapid decline, it resulted in a poor showing from the Vikings.

While it can be argued that the Lions offense is equally in a rut (it’s not), If they can execute “keys 1-3,” it should open up opportunities for Williams.

Key 5: Don’t give up on establishing the run

The best part of the Jaguars’ defense is stopping the run, which they prioritize, similarly to the Lions. Travon Walker is a force on the edge against the run, and their linebackers fill gaps in a hurry.

“Yeah, they’re good, they’re really good up front,” Goff told the media. “They’ve got good players all over the place and I think they’re a very talented defense and are still putting things together. But we’ve got a lot of respect for those players over there.”

For the Lions to execute their passing game plan, they’ll need to stay focused on the run, even if they don’t find the success they’re used to early. Sticking with the run will help set up easier throws, and will be necessary to close the game out.

Key 6: Throw Za’Darius Smith right into the mix

There should be no hesitation in throwing Za’Darius Smith right into the fire and letting him acclimate to the defense via snaps. With the Lions’ next three opponents all having losing records (Jaguars, Colts, and Bears), this is their opportunity to get Smith fully ready.

“He’s a vet, looking forward to getting him out there, (we) have a number of things that we want to do with him, but just going through the walkthrough with him, you can tell how excited he is to be a part of this organization,” defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said of Smith. “And listen, we’re throwing some things at him and he’s not going to pick everything up right away, but there are some situations that we want to make sure that he’s on the field to utilize his ability to rush the passer and his ability to play the run. In our mind, we have some things for him, we’re not going to try to overload him, but we’re going to push as much on him as we can to get him out there to go play for us.”

Key 7: Build on impressive run defense

The Lions’ run defense got back on track against the Texans only allowing them to gain just 56 yards on 28 rushing attempts (2.0 yards per attempt) and they’ll need to keep that momentum moving forward.

“I want to get right back to where we were when it comes to our run defense, and we started that against Houston which was really good to see,” Glenn continued. “[… We want] to solidify the run defense a lot better than what we’ve done early in the season. Not saying that we’ve done a bad job, but I expect a lot more from us.”

While the Lions got impressive efforts from Alim McNeill, DJ Reader, and Josh Paschal up front, it was the additional support from linebacker Jack Campbell, safety Brian Branch, and corner Carlton Davis that made the difference.

“We expect our D-linemen to take two (blocks) so our linebackers can run (the gaps), and those guys are two of the best in the League at doing that.”

The Jaguars’ offensive line has been average most of the season (they check in at No. 19 in PFF rankings) and they’re built for athleticism, not power. If the Lions can play bully ball up front, they’ll have a chance to overpower the offensive line and disrupt their ability to establish runs.

Key 8: Blitz to pressure, kill the check-downs, make your tackles

To add pressure on top of the bully-ball approach from the defensive line, the Lions should continue to lean on their blitz. Since Week 7 (when the Lions lost Aidan Hutchinson for the season) the Lions have blitzed on 40.5% of passing plays (most in the NFL over that timeframe, per Next Gen Stats) and they have turned that into pressures. Last week, the Lions pressured the Texans on 16 different passing plays (per Next Gen Stats), the third-highest output of the Lions’ season.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars will be without quarterback Trevor Lawrence and will turn to Mac Jones as their signal caller in this game. Jones is more susceptible to pressure and we typically see three outcomes when it’s applied: he takes sacks, he scrambles, and most often, he checks the ball down to his tight ends and running backs.

The Lions’ defense needs to be prepared for these outcomes and the back-seven needs to be sharp in identifying where the ball is going and preventing yards after catch.

Key 9: Use safeties to take away Brian Thomas, Evan Engram

When not pressured, Jones will try and turn to his two best receiving options in rookie receiver Brian Thomas and veteran tight end Evan Engram. The most productive way the Lions can handle these receiving options is to lean on their safeties.

Last week, the Vikings used situational cloud coverage (with a defensive back underneath and over the top) on Thomas, holding him to just two receptions for 12 yards. Look for the Lions to do the same. Jones can be fooled by this coverage and it led to interceptions last week, and that’s right in the Lions wheelhouse as a coverage option.

As far as Engram, this is another situation where coverage from the Lions safeties, most likely Brian Branch, can be used to stunt his production. When Jones uses Engram as a checkdown, Branch needs to be in a position to make the tackle (his 50 tackles are third on the team). When Jones tests him downfield, Branch has shown the ability to get his hands on the ball (his 13 pass breakups lead the team, while his four interceptions are second behind Kerby Jospeh’s NFL-leading six).

Key 10: Win on third down

Quite possibly the biggest advantage the Lions possess is when they get their opponents into third-down situations—which was the focus of this week’s film study by Morgan Cannon and is something you should check out for more information on this subject.

Heading into this game, the Lions are statistically the best team in the NFL at defending third downs, only allowing teams to convert 31.37% of the time. Glenn has creatively mixed up coverages, his blitzes have left offenses confused, and the execution from Lions players has been stellar. Right now, this is one of the team’s biggest strengths.

On the opposite side of the ball, the Jaguars’ offense is converting third downs just 33% of the time, which is third worst in the NFL and has been even worse with Jones under center.

In all, if the Lions defense can continue to focus on stopping the run, utilize the blitz for pressure, make their tackles on check-downs, deploy safeties against their top targets, and get off the field on third downs, they should control this game.