Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars preview, prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions get a bit of a reprieve in their schedule this week after going through somewhat of a gauntlet in the past month. Not only are they playing in just their second game at home since the bye week, but they’re facing off against a Jacksonville Jaguars team that is 2-8 on the season and will be missing their starting quarterback.

But are the Jaguars as bad as their record suggests? Let’s take a look in our Lions vs. Jaguars Week 11 preview and prediction: On Paper.

Lions pass offense (12th in DVOA) vs. Jaguars pass defense (32nd)

Last week was… an adventure. The Texans were arguably the best pass defense they’ve faced all year, and Detroit clearly struggled for most of the game. The five interceptions were certainly a bit fluky, but the Lions offense was clearly struggling to find their footing beyond that, as well. Still, at this point, there’s enough data to suggest this was an outlier or the result of playing a dominant defense—that won’t be a problem this week.

Overall, the Lions still rank extremely high in most statistics. Here’s a big list of them:

• 8.4 Y/A (fifth)
• 106.7 passer rating (third)
• 0.158 dropback EPA (seventh)
• 49.5% success rate (13th)

Pass protection seems to be a big discussion this week, and understandably so. Detroit ranks just 16th in pressure rate allowed (per NFL Pro) and 15th in pass block grade by PFF. They’ve been playing like an average unit, but it certainly seems like they’re trending toward having Taylor Decker back in the lineup this week, which should help.

The Jaguars’ last-ranked pass defense is certainly well-earned when you look at the chart above. What’s perhaps even more concerning for Jacksonville is the fact that they have played some of the worst pass offenses in the league, and are consistently allowing passer ratings above 100 (see: Colts, Bears, Patriots). DVOA takes into consideration the strength of opponent, but even removing that context makes the Jaguars look terrible. Here are their raw statistic rankings:

• 8.0 Y/A (30th)
• 106.2 passer rating (32nd)
• 0.271 dropback EPA (32nd)
• 49.2% success rate (28th)

The most confounding statistics about the Jaguars is their pass rush. They’ve got two fantastic EDGE players in Josh Hines-Allen and Trevon Walker. Hines-Allen is seventh in the NFL with 43 pressure (per PFF) and Walker isn’t far behind with 35 (19th). And yet the team ranks 22nd in PFF pass rush grade, 32nd in pass rush win rate, 24th in sacks, and 29th in pressure rate.

Player to watch: Jarrian Jones vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Jaguars secondary is aggressive and play a lot of man, so expect Jones to line up opposite St. Brown early and often. Jones may be their best defensive back. While his best attribute is his run defense, he has posted three games with a 78+ PFF grade over his last six contests.

Advantage: Lions +3. This feels like a bounce-back opportunity for the Lions pass offense. The Jaguars did pick off Sam Darnold three times last week, but that looks to be an outlier, and Darnold was actually able to move the ball between the 20s quite effectively for most of the game. As long as Jared Goff takes care of the ball, this should be a comfortable game for Detroit.

Lions run offense (1st) vs. Jaguars run defense (12th)

The Lions running game hasn’t been as efficient as we’ve become conditioned to see, but yet they still remain a top-tier rushing attack. They’ve still accomplished over 100 rushing yards in every game this season, thought it’s a bit surprising to see that they’ve only eclipsed 150 yards in four of nine games this year.

Still, the efficiency numbers are relatively impressive. While they’re “only” eighth in yards per carry (4.7), they rank third in rush EPA (0.033) and sixth in success rate (43.6%). The offensive line remains a big part of their success, ranking first in adjusted line yards, fourth in team run blocking PFF grade (74.7), and sixth in ESPN’s run block win rate (74%).

As for the recent struggles, at least some of credit goes to the opponents. The Texans rank second in run defense DVOA, and the Packers are 14th. And if you take away some Jared Goff kneel downs, Detroit’s yards per carry vs. Green Bay shoots up to 4.3 YPC.

The Jaguars run defense has been all over the place. They’ve held four opponents below 4.0 yards per carry, but they’ve also allowed over 5.0 yards per carry three times. Perhaps most troubling for them is the fact that they’ve allowed over 150 rushing yards in four of their last five contests. Granted, those were against some good rushing attacks, but they’ve got one of the best opposite them this week.

For the season, the Jaguars rank ninth in yards per carry allowed (4.3), 15th in rush EPA (-0.091), and 10th in success rate (37.3%). Their defensive line ranks 15th in run defense PFF grade (67.8), 27th in run stop win rate (29%), and 13th in adjusted line yards. So they’re pretty much average.

One potential area of weakness is big plays. The Jaguars have allowed 18 rushes of 15+ yards, tied for the third-most in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Lions offense has produced 18 rushes of 15+ yards, good for seventh-most.

Player to watch: Devin Lloyd. Lloyd sports an impressive 90.6 PFF run defense grade this year and has 16 total run stops this season.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. I think the Jaguars’ best unit on the team may be their run defense, but unfortunately for them, they’re going up against Detroit’s best unit, too. I think this game could look a little similar to last week. The Lions could struggle to get the run game going early, but they should eventually break through and wear the Jaguars defense down.

Jaguars pass offense (18th) vs. Lions pass defense (3rd)

If you look at this chart, you may come to the conclusions that Trevor Lawrence isn’t playing all that bad, and Jacksonville was able to move the ball through the air a bit. I don’t think that’s a particularly inaccurate conclusion, but unfortunately for the Jaguars, Lawrence is injured and Mac Jones is under center this week.

Jones has made three game appearances for the Jaguars this year, including his first start with the team last week. It has not gone well:

20-of-31 for 139 yards (4.5 Y/A), 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 47.6 passer rating, 40.9 PFF grade

Obviously, the more time Jones has to rep with first-team receivers, the better his chances of running the offense efficiently. Unfortunately for him, the Jaguars don’t exactly sport a myriad of offensive weapons.

Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. is developing into a true No. 1 receiver. Among rookies, Thomas is tied for first in yards (607), second in touchdowns (five), and sports a ridiculous 16.4 yards per catch (second). Beyond him, though, is not much. The next leading receiver is Christian Kirk (379 yards), but he’s on injured reserve. Then we’re talking Evan Engram (263) and Gabe Davis (236).

Pass protection is about average for the Jaguars. They rank 19th in PFF grade (65.5), 15th in pass block win rate (60%), sixth in pressure percentage (28.4%), and 18th in sack percentage (7.0%). Where they’re most vulnerable on the offensive line may be at right tackle. Anton Harrison has allowed a team-high 22 pressures, although keep an eye on left tackle Walker Little, who has been forced into the starting lineup after Jacksonville traded away Cam Robinson to the Vikings.

I’ll be honest, I’ve been skeptical of the Lions pass defense for most of the season. I figured once the interceptions dried up, they’d return to more of an average unit. But it may be time to admit that this is just a very disruptive defense with playmakers all over the secondary.

For the season, the Lions rank 17th in yards per attempt allowed (7.0), but they’re also first in passer rating (75.1), sixth in passes defended (51), t-second in interceptions (13), and 10th in completion percentage (63.7). They excel in the advanced metrics, too, with the Lions ranking fifth in EPA (-0.072) and 15th in success rate (45.3%).

It’s no secret that Detroit’s coverage has been the key to their success. With their pass rush on a steady decline since Aidan Hutchinson’s injury (Lions currently rank 22nd in pressure rate), the Lions sport an 86.8 team coverage PFF grade, good for third in the NFL.

But this week, they add Za’Darius Smith to help both with their pass rush and run defense. With the Browns, Smith had 27 pressures on the season. That places him only behind Hutchinson (45) and Alim McNeill (31) on the Lions—and tied with Levi Onwuzurike.

Player to watch: Evan Engram. Mac Jones can be a bit of a checkdown artist, which would make Engram a nice security blanket for him. In the last two weeks, Engram has seen 18 total targets. That said, the Lions rank second in the NFL in pass defense DVOA against tight ends.

Advantage: Lions +2.5. The one thing I haven’t mentioned is the status of Lions CB1 Carlton Davis, who popped up on the injury report with a hand injury on Thursday. That could leave a rookie vs. rookie matchup in Thomas Jr. vs. Terrion Arnold, and I don’t feel great about that. Still, there is very little that scares me about the Jaguars passing offense, particularly with Mac Jones running the show.

Jaguars run offense (15th) vs. Lions run defense (7th)

The Jaguars have a respectable run game, but as you can see in the chart, it is not trending in the right direction. Their only really successful game in the past month is against a bad Patriots defense. To potentially make matters worse this week, Tank Bigsby—their most productive back (519 yards, 5.5 YPC)—has missed the first two days of practice this week with an ankle injury. Bigsby leads the NFL in yards after contact per carry (4.9, next closest is 4.0), so he’s truly a weapon if he can suit up.

Travis Etienne (298 yards, 4.3 YPC) is a decent back, but doesn’t bring the physical presence that the backs who have given the Lions trouble have this season.

As you may expect from Bigsby’s numbers, the offensive line isn’t doing them much of any favors. They rank 25th in PFF run blocking grade (59.6), 26th in run block win rate (69%), 30th in rushing yards before contact (0.77), but oddly 10th in adjusted line yards.

The Lions run defense got back on track last week against a decent rushing attack. Getting Josh Paschal back in the lineup was huge in helping set the edge, and the defensive backs were also key in the improvement. Detroit remains stout up the middle of the defense, with DJ Reader and Alim McNeill patrolling the inner trenches.

As a team, the Lions rank 16th in yards per carry allowed (4.4), but they’re seventh in EPA (-0.157) and fourth in success rate (34.9%). I’m not ready to fully proclaim that the run defense is back, but with the addition of Smith, it feels like last week could very well be a turning point back to normalcy.

Player to watch: Josh Paschal. Lions coaches fawned over Paschal’s performance last week and for good reason: Paschal earned three run stops last week with an average depth of tackle at 0.3 yards.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. If Bigsby plays, he’s the kind of physical back that could give Detroit some troubles (like Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard). If he can’t, the Lions should be the more physical team here.

Last week’s prediction:

Last week, I was a little too dismissive of the Texans defense, despite the fact they were top-six in DVOA rankings in both pass and run defense. Their ability to stop Detroit’s running game caught me by surprise, and I’ll admit my confidence in Detroit’s running game is slightly shaken. It’s still a top-five unit in the league, but they haven’t had a truly dominating performance in a bit.

Overall, my 27-17 prediction was a bit too optimistic, and while On Paper moves to 8-1 overall, we’re now 6-3 against the spread.

In the comment section, we had a few people close to the 26-23 final score.

• Big.AL: 24-21 Lions
• Ballhawk387: 24-20 Lions
• Mike Sawson: 23-20 Lions
• Panzer1943: 23-21 Lions
• Lawrence Ulrich: 28-24 Lions

But the two closest predictions came from commenter Justan Oldfart (26-25) and POD staffer Al Karsten (24-23). Here is your co-prize:

This week’s prediction

The Lions come out with a hefty +8.5 advantage, which is pretty huge by On Paper standards. Detroit has the edge in each individual matchup, too. The only path to a Jaguars victory is something like their performance last week. If their pass defense has truly turned a corner, I can see them giving Detroit some similar troubles that they experienced against the Texans. I highly doubt Goff throws them five interceptions, but if he tosses them a couple, this game could stay close.

That said, I don’t see much hope for the Jaguars offense. Everything I see about that side of the ball is either average or below average, and with Mac Jones at quarterback, it’s hard for me to see them get the occasional explosive play they’ll need to pull off an upset.

So give me Lions 31, Jaguars 9.