4 keys to a Detroit Lions Week 10 victory over the Houston Texans. It’s the Honolulu Blueprint!
The Detroit Lions (7-1) are on the road again in Week 10, taking on the Houston Texans (6-3), their second matchup with a team from the AFC South this season. If the Lions want to continue their hot streak, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
Texans base schemes
For a detailed look at the opposing scheme, make sure you check out our complementary breakdown piece: Lions Week 10 Preview: Breaking down Texans’ offensive and defensive schemes.
Key 1: Establish a ground game early
The Lions pride themselves on their rushing attack, and on the road, they tend to lean on it early in games to establish themselves as the more physical team. On average, when on the road, the Lions rush for 41 yards above the yardage their opponent typically allows, illustrating Detroit’s desire to control the game on the ground.
The Lions’ two-headed rushing attack is arguably the best combination of backs in the NFL and coaches understand that they can lean on David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to make things easier on the rest of the offense.
“Huge luxury for us,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said of having two starter-level running backs. “It makes my life easier as the play-caller, it makes our O-line’s life easier as they’re blocking for them up front, and as we like to say, they just elevate their teammates, elevate the people around them.”
By the box score numbers, the Texans grade out as a middle-of-the-road rushing defense (they give up 114+ rushing yards per game), but DVOA tabs them as a top-five run defense in terms of efficiency. My assumption is that a couple of factors come into play in raising the Texans’ efficiency score, including winning in critical areas, such as only allowing five rushing touchdowns through nine games, and “stuffing” runs (stops at or behind the line of scrimmage) 19.8% of the time — both ranking in the top-five.
But there’s a downside to the Texans’ attacking approach that the Lions can take advantage of. Houston’s defensive line aggressively shoots up the field, regardless of whether it is run or pass, and the Lions have the talent to counter with traps and draws. If Detroit can get their backs past that wave, there is a lot of space behind them to run, which is why the Texans are 28th in the NFL in allowing rushing plays of 10+ yards (35 allowed).
Additionally, Houston has the second-highest missed tackle rate in the NFL, and as a result, they are giving up 610 yards after contact (29th) and, on average, allowing runners to gain 3.45 yards after contact per attempt (30th). Essentially, that means if teams have a running back (or two) who can break through tackles, there’s even more opportunity to eat.
According to Next Gen Stats, Montgomery has forced a missed tackle on 34.5% of his rushes this season (48, fifth highest rate in NFL), while Gibbs rushing success rate is 48.5%, which is the best in the NFL.
Key 2: OL needs to hold off NFL’s best pass rushers
The Texans’ penetrating defense truly pays off against the pass, where they have the second-highest pressure rate (42%) this season, while leading the NFL in pure pressures applied (137). Left defensive end Danielle Hunter sits atop the pressures statistics in the NFL (57, per Next Gen Stats), while right-side edge rusher Will Anderson is not far behind (40 pressures, sixth in the NFL). Unfortunately for the Texans, Anderson has been ruled out for this game due to an ankle injury.
“Yeah, they’re good. They’re really good,” Lions quarterback Jared Goff said of the Texans defense. “They’re really well coached. They remind me of San Francisco—no surprise—back when I was in L.A. in the division (with) San Francisco when (Texans coach) DeMeco (Ryans) was there, it was similar. Very good defense and good upfront, good at the linebacker position, good at the defensive backs. Really well coached, sound, they do a good job.”
The Lions’ offensive line will have their hands full in this game because even without Anderson rushing opposite them, the Lions will be missing starting left tackle Taylor Decker, who has also been ruled out with a shoulder injury. When Hunter shifts to the side opposite Penei Sewell, the Lions will need to be actively aware and consistently dedicated to chipping him with tight ends and running backs.
Fortunately for the Lions, they have been very good against pressure this season, as Goff’s efficiency numbers are exceptional. Here’s a look at a few statistics when Goff has been under pressure this season, per Next Gen Stats:
- Goff’s passer rating (118.1) — leads the NFL
- Goff’s completion percentage (71.0%) — leads the NFL
- Goff’s completion percentage over expected (+11.9%) — leads the NFL
- Goff’s passing yards per attempt (10.4) — leads the NFL
- Goff gets rid of the ball 0.41 seconds after pressure arrives — second in the NFL
A true strength vs. strength battle.
Key 3: Set your edges, watch for cutback lanes
“We have to shut down (Joe) Mixon, I think he’s the key,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said earlier this week.
Since returning from injury, Mixon has four straight games where he has rushed for at least 100 yards. Over that time, he has +110 rushing yards above expectations (fourth best in the NFL) as well as 310 rushing yards after contact (second best). Mixon has done well in the Texans’ outside zone scheme, locating cut-back lanes, while also taking advantage of collapsing edges, either bouncing outside or overpowering linebackers and defensive backs.
The Lions prioritize stopping the run, and don’t expect things to change in this game, but in order to slow Mixon down, they’ll need to pay attention to a few key components.
First, the Texans’ poor-performing interior offensive line collapses on stretch plays, and the Lions will need to continue to make sure they overpower them on the move. Second, because Houston’s interior offensive line falls apart so frequently, Mixon’s been attacking cut-back lanes even more aggressively, and the Lions need to have a filler on the back side. Third, setting the edge will be massive in this game—more on this in the next section as well—and the Lions will need to make sure they’re doing their best to funnel Mixon inside where the blocking is weaker.
If the Lions can adhere to supporting these three components, they’ll have an opportunity for success. Houston running backs are being contacted within 1.3 yards of the line of scrimmage (22nd) and are allowing a stuffed rate (runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage) is 21.5% (31st).
Key 4: Contain and squeeze with pressure up the middle
C.J. Stroud is one of the more exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL, and while he has performed closer to average this season compared to last, he has the talent to play at a high level in any game.
“Yeah, look he’s impressive,” Campbell said of Stroud. “I’ll tell you what, you can tell he’s smart. For a young quarterback, he’s smart, he can key and diagnose, he’s tough, he’ll stand in the pocket but yet he’s got pocket awareness to where he can maneuver and then you let him get outside and I think one of the things that he’s done really a good job of—he did it last year—is when he begins to move, his eyes are downfield. He feels the rush, but he doesn’t see the rush and so that’s what makes him so dangerous.”
Unfortunately for Stroud, his offensive line has been doing him no favors in 2024. They have allowed the second most sacks (31), the most pressure in the NFL (151, per Next Gen Stats), the second most “quick pressures” (74), and the most “unblocked” pressures (28) in the NFL. The interior line specifically—which ESPN’s Mina Kimes has called “non-functional”—is responsible for 20.5 sacks and allowed 35 of the “quick pressures”, both of which are most in the NFL.
Because the Texans are weak up the middle, their quarterback is mobile enough to escape the pocket, and their running game can threaten the edge, look for the Lions to emphasize setting a firm edge and collapsing the pocket from the middle up, most notably with Alim McNeill and potentially some A-gap blitzes from their linebackers.
Teams are blitzing the Texans 32.5% of the time (10th most) and Houston is allowing pressure on 54% of those blitzes (fourth-highest allowed), including giving up almost half of their overall sacks allowed (15 of 31). With the Texans using play-action minimally (20.8%, 23rd in the NFL), linebackers will often be in situations where they won’t have to account for a run play and can fire off when called upon to blitz.
The potential return of Nico Collins in this game could prove to be an X-factor, as Stroud has completed 80% of his passes to Collins when under pressure (eight of 10 attempts), while only completing 52% of his passes to other targets (51 of 98). At the same time, Collins has only practiced once in the past month—a limited practice at that—and most of the connections with Stroud in these situations have been on the deep ball, which could be an issue, especially if they are not 100% on the same page. Lions safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch have accounted for a league-high 10 interceptions this season, and if the Texans want to test them deep, they better make sure they’re on point or they risk turning the ball over.
