• RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans — over 18.5 carries: Since returning from injury in Week 6, the veteran back has seen substantial volume, leading the NFL with 87 carries over the last four games. This heavy workload has fueled Joe Mixon’s streak of four consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs Houston Texans [Total: 48.5]

Game Overview

Sunday Night Football brings a high-profile interconference showdown between the NFC favorite Detroit Lions and the AFC South’s dominant frontrunner, the Houston Texans.

Though Houston holds a strong 6-3 record, their 3-6 mark against the spread has been less impressive for bettors. The Texans started the season with four straight missed covers, rebounded with three consecutive wins, and then stumbled with two more failed covers, leaving them at their current ATS record.

Injuries to key playmakers and issues with pass protection have limited the Texans’ passing efficiency. Since Week 7, Houston ranks last in pressure rate allowed (46.1%) and is among the bottom three in both knockdown rate (13.9%) and pass-block efficiency rating (73.9).

Despite losing Aidan Hutchinson to injury, the Lions have managed to maintain a solid pass rush. Over the three games without Hutchinson, Detroit’s defense ranks 11th in pressure rate (35.4%). The recent trade for edge rusher Za’Darius Smith could bolster this unit, though it’s uncertain if he’ll play this week. If not, the pressure will rely on players like interior lineman Alim McNeill, who recorded seven pressures in Week 9.

Late-week news revealed that the Texans held a players-only meeting to address recent struggles following their second loss in three games. Improving pass protection is critical for this team, but they may also benefit from the potential return of WR Nico Collins, who has been designated to return but remains questionable for the game.

Before his injury in Week 5, Collins was in peak form, averaging 3.50 yards per route run and earning a league-best 92.4 PFF receiving grade. Since the start of the 2023 season, his 92.7 receiving grade is the highest among all NFL receivers, underscoring his game-changing impact.

Houston will need a player of Collins’ caliber to keep up with the Lions, who have been dominant on both sides of the ball. Detroit is the only team in the league to rank in the top eight in both offensive EPA per play and defensive EPA per play allowed, making them one of the most balanced and formidable teams this season.

RB Joe Mixon, Houston Texans: Over 18.5 carries (-121)

Given the issues with Houston’s passing game, particularly pertaining to pass protection, establishing a presence on the ground has proven vital to keeping defenses from pinning their ears back and rushing the passer. 

Enter Joe Mixon, who has carried the workload well in his time on the field. Since returning from injury in Week 6, the veteran back has seen substantial volume, leading the NFL with 87 carries over the last four games. This heavy workload has fueled Joe Mixon’s streak of four consecutive games with over 100 rushing yards.

If Houston can’t establish an effective run game, it risks giving Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and his offense too many chances to build a lead. While Detroit’s defense has been strong overall, it’s shown vulnerability against the run, ranking 19th in EPA allowed per rush and 27th in yards allowed per carry (4.8).

Exploiting this weakness could be crucial for the Texans to keep pace and control the clock against a Lions team that thrives on both sides of the ball.