Breaking down 3 key matchups from Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans with a deep statistical dive.
The Detroit Lions head on the road for the fourth time in five weeks for a primetime matchup with the Houston Texans. The Lions haven’t beaten the Texans since their very first contest, in 2004, losing four straight including the embarrassing Thanksgiving 2020 loss. That 41-25 Turkey Day stuffing from the Texans was a blessing in disguise as Matt Patricia was deservingly fired after the game and led to the head coach opening for Dan Campbell to fill. Now the Lions, led by Campbell, are looking to start a season 8-1 for only the third time in franchise history (1931 and 1954).
Now, let’s take a look at what the Lions are up against with the NFL’s youngest franchise in my three biggest matchups.
Note: Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro.
Pressure is a privilege
In the span of a season, the Texans went from the Cinderella darlings to underperforming contender. Quarterback C.J. Stroud went from leading the NFL in lowest interception rate and passing yards/game to leading it in sack yards this season.
The Texans offensive struggles can be attributed to a combination of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s conservative play calling, wide receiver injuries, and particularly to poor pass protection.
I’m worried that SB Nation’s servers might crash if I try to include all of the metrics for the telling Texans’ offensive line struggles.
Overall, this season, the Texans offense has the third-worst quarterback pressure rate at 41.3%, and the seventh-worst sack rate at 9.1%.
If you look at the Texans recent schedule, the last three weeks, Stroud has been under even more pressure, as shown below:
- Week 7 at Green Bay Packers – 44.8% pressure rate
- Week 8 vs Indianapolis Colts – 57.5%
- Week 9 at New York Jets – 45.7%
As you can see, the Texans pass protection issues are trending in the wrong direction and is cratering Stroud’s ability to run their passing attack. In those last three games, Stroud has been pressured on 57 of 103 dropbacks (55.3%). Last week, they gave up a disastrous eight sacks on Thursday against the Jets. You bet Aaron Glenn is going to look for a multitude of ways to keep that trend going and breathe life into Lions recent non-existent pass rush.
When tapping further into how the Texans are allowing pressure, you can see avenues for Glenn’s defense to have success.
The most glaring weakness of the Texans’ passing game has been their interior offensive line. The interior has allowed a combined 20.5 sacks this season (most in the NFL). They have also allowed 35 total quick pressures (most in the NFL).
The Texans placed starting, struggling, former first round pick left guard Kenyon Green on injured reserve this week. After former third round pick Kendrick Green filled in following Kenyon Green’s early Week 9 departure, It’s been reported that veteran offensive line coach Chris Strausser will be shuffling the deck against the Lions given their injury situation. Starting second-year center, Juice Scruggs, will be shifting to left guard while 2023 sixth-round pick, Jarrett Patterson will be stepping in at center (eight career starts). Scruggs is more of a natural center, but was forced to start eight games at left guard last season, where he played much worse and allowed four sacks, 14 total pressures, and registered a lowly 48.9 PFF pass blocking grade.
Another issue the Texans offensive line has struggled with is the blitz. The Texans have allowed the fourth-highest pressure rate against the blitz this season (54.0%) while taking the second-most sacks (15). The Texans have also allowed a 2.29 seconds average time to pressure against the blitz in 2024, the seventh-quickest in the league.
Knowing these stats, the Lions defensive front has to be champing at the bit for a major get-right opportunity. I fully expect Alim McNeill to have a 5+ quarterback pressure game. Add to the fact that the Lions are getting Josh Paschal back, and Levi Onwuzurike should see increased snaps back on the interior of the defensive line where he finds a little more success. Factor in DJ Reader’s revenge game and Stroud should find the pocket collapsing on him throughout the game with minimal opportunities to step up and into the pocket to extend plays. Of course, you can also expect some well-designed blitzes to test the communication ability of the Texans offensive line and hopefully lead to some unblocked pressures.
One last critical aspect to the Lions defensive front taking over the game is the availability of Nico Collins. At this point, it looks like he’s trending towards playing. Early in the season, the Texans offense handled pressure much better because of the chemistry Stroud and Collins have. While under pressure, Stroud has completed eight of his 10 pass attempts for 194 yards targeting Collins (80.0%, 19.4 yards/attempt) but has gone just 51 of 98 for 614 yards to all other receivers on such passes (52.0%, 6.3 yards/attempt). Over the last two seasons, Stroud and Collins have connected for 309 yards on dropbacks lasting longer than 4.0 seconds, the most by any quarterback-receiver duo over that span (+23.8 EPA, first). Keeping Collins corralled in coverage, if Stroud is able to keep plays alive, will be a tall task and the Lions improved defensive backs should be up for the challenge.
Backing Stroud into a corner
Even dating back to last year, one of the crutches of the Texans offense was some of Bobby Slowik’s predictability and lack of aggressiveness on early downs. That forces Stroud and the offense to be up against the eight ball from a down and distance standpoint.
The Texans have ran the ball on 142 first downs this season (seventh most). However, they struggle with a -0.14 EPA/rush on first downs (22nd), a 27.5% success rate (28th), 0.83 yards before contact/attempt (27th), and a 23.9% stuff rate (32nd). When running the ball on first down, the Texans are almost as likely to be tackled at or behind the line scrimmage as they are to have a successful rushing attempt.
It’s not much different on second down for the Texans’ putrid ground game. On second down, they’ve ran the ball 95 times (second most). Similarly, those runs result in a -0.12 EPA/rush (23rd), a 42.1% success rate (23rd), and a 20.0% stuff rate (26th).
Given their early-down run struggles, the Texans predictably have faced 70 third-and-long plays this season, which is the second most in the NFL. These consistent, obvious passing situations also take us full circle on some of the Texans pass protection issues. The Texans are allowing the second-highest quarterback pressure rate on third-and-long at 55.9%.
The Lions defensive front has struggled as of late against the run. Over the last three weeks, the Lions defense, without Aidan Hutchinson, has allowed at least 138 rushing yards in each game and 5.7 yards per rush during that span. Meanwhile, since returning from injury in Week 6, Joe Mixon has rushed for 100+ yards in each game.
It’ll be key for the Lions defense to shut down the run game on early downs to set themselves up for success to be able to get after Stroud and force him into obvious third-and-longs.
Pressure-packed Texans defense
On the other side of the ball, the chess match between Ben Johnson and DeMeco Ryans is appointment television. Much like Ryans’ previous Niners defenses, the calling card for the Texans defense, which is second ranked in fewest yards allowed per game, is their ability to disrupt the opposing quarterback.
Despite the Texans being without their budding edge rusher star in Will Anderson and defensive tackle Folorunso Fatukasi this week, they’re still not an ideal defensive front to face without left tackle Taylor Decker. The biggest reason for that is former dreaded Vikings foe Danielle Hunter and his resurgent performance this season. Hunter leads the NFL in pressures generated (54) and so far has recorded his highest pressure rate (20.7%), quick pressure rate (8.0%), and average pass-rush get-off (0.79 seconds) since 2018. Additionally, the Texans defensive front received some reinforcements in the form of defensive lineman Denico Autry. Autry returned from a six game suspension in Week 7, and in Week 9 against the Jets, notched two sacks.
Overall, The Texans defense has recorded the second-highest pressure rate (42.0%) this season, including a league-leading 40.4% pressure rate when not blitzing. It’s a double edged-sword with Ryans’ wrecking crew, as they can beat you with four pass rushers but they also aren’t afraid to send the blitz. The Texans blitz the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season (34.7%) and are 11th with a 45.0% quarterback pressure rate when they do bring extra heat.
To combat that, Jared Goff has elevated his game against the blitz and pressure this season. Against the blitz, Goff leads the NFL in multiple categories: 145.3 passer rating, 11.6 yards/attempt, 78.4% completion percentage, and +0.51 EPA/dropback. There’s a reason that airplanes, hardware stores, and Chicago Blackhawks games are filled with “JA-RED GOFF” chants. He’s been an absolute stud this year. Against pressure, Goff also leads the NFL with a 118.1 passer rating, 10.4 yards/attempt, and a 71.0% completion percentage.
As always, the Lions will try to control the game and move the ball with their run game, but there will be times the offensive line, and substitute tackle Dan Skipper, need to hold-up in pass protection so they can put the game on Jared Goff’s shoulders to barbeque the juicy Texans defense.
