Time to get some intel from the enemy
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time for us to gather a little bit of intel on this week’s opponent for the Minnesota Vikings. This week, the purple will travel to take on a team we don’t see that often, making the trip to Duval County to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. That means we’re talking with our friends from Big Cat Country, SB Nation’s home for everything about Jaguars football.
I had the opportunity to exchange questions with Gus Logue from Big Cat Country this week. You can see the answers I had for the questions he sent my way right here, and here are the questions I sent to him with his responses.
1) Prior to the season, the Jaguars made Trevor Lawrence a member of the $50 million/year club for quarterback extensions. With the Jaguars’ struggles so far this season, is there a bit of buyer’s remorse concerning that deal or are there too many other things in play to blame Lawrence?
There is no buyer’s remorse in Jacksonville. Lawrence is the caliber of quarterback that elevates the players around him and leads the team to wins, as opposed to just playing well enough to avoid losses. Doug Pederson has a good playbook but his coaching staff doesn’t focus enough on fine details. Last week’s loss in Philly was a good example: Evan Engram didn’t turn around quickly enough on a 4th-and-1; Parker Washington ran an out instead of a corner on a “China” route concept and a comeback instead of a stop-and-go on a later deep shot play; Brian Thomas Jr. broke off a quick out on the goal line at 5 yards instead of 3 yards; Travis Etienne dropped a pass that ended up in the hands of a defender, and D’Ernest Johnson half-assed a route that resulted in another interception to end the game.
The results haven’t been there for Lawrence since he was drafted first overall in 2021, but the process hasn’t been there either in terms of putting him in a position to succeed. Anyone who doubts Lawrence is either not watching Jaguars games closely (which, fair) or stuck on pre-draft expectations. The guy isn’t LeBron James, but he is a helluva football player who will prove a lot of people wrong if/when the Jaguars hire an actual adult to run the show.
Help us, Ben Johnson. You’re our only hope.
2) Doug Pederson has been rumored to be on the hot seat in Jacksonville for quite some time. Is it time for a change in Duval County or do you think there’s a way for Pederson to save his job? Does he even make it through the rest of the 2024 season?
It’s time for a change. Pederson is an NFL-caliber coach — you don’t put up 41 points with Nick Foles in a Super Bowl win against Bill Belichick just because of luck — but the largest indictment on him is his staff. Press Taylor has been a polarizing assistant since their Philadephia days. Former passing game coordinator Jim Bob Cooter left Jax to be Indy’s offensive coordinator in 2023 and was never replaced. The receivers haven’t been well-coached since Jaguars legend and former position coach Keenan McCardall joined the Vikings in 2021. The offensive line is well-schemed in the run game but has allowed consistent pressure in pass protection for years.
Though he’s generally viewed as a sharp offensive mind, Pederson really wants to be a CEO-type head coach. But he doesn’t have an identity to fall back to during tough times (like Detroit’s toughness or Miami’s speed or San Francisco’s versatility or Minnesota’s aggressiveness). The RPOs that Pederson leaned on back in 2017 aren’t as effective anymore, and his offense as a whole hasn’t adapted enough to keep up with modern trends. Without a clear vision or a super staff, Pederson is having difficulty righting the ship. It’s hard to imagine the Jaguars turning things around and winning enough games to save his job.
3) Jacksonville ranks near the bottom of the NFL in terms of points allowed. What have been the big issues for the Jaguars on that side of the football this season?
Pass coverage and pass rush go hand in hand, and blame for big plays allowed can rarely be pinned on just one or the other. Both aspects have to work in tandem together — but we haven’t seen a lot of that in Jacksonville.
Though Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker are among the best starting EDGE duos in the NFL, the pass rush behind them has been almost nonexistent. Marquee free agent pickup Arik Armstead is playing on the edge more than he ever has in his career but it’s not bearing any fruit. Meanwhile, the secondary has been a complete mess. Rookie-deal safeties Andre Cisco and Antonio Johnson haven’t taken the jump that many were hoping to see, and Tyson Campbell has been the only corner who can consistently cover for three full seconds — yet he’s only played in three full games this year due to a hamstring injury.
Jacksonville’s run defense has been fine but the pass rush and pass coverage aren’t well-synced. Anytime Hines-Allen or Walker is off the field, opposing quarterbacks usually have all day to throw, and even when the Jaguars do get pressure, there’s a bust in coverage more often than not. It hasn’t looked good, but Jaguars fans probably can hold out some hope that results will improve over the second half of the season. Jacksonville used a 3-4 front with tons of zone coverage in previous years, so there was always going to be an adjustment changing to a 4-3 front with tons of man coverage.
4) If you could take one non-Justin Jefferson player from the Vikings and add him to the Jaguars’ roster, who would you take and why?
If it’s just for this season, I’d add Stephon Gilmore or Camryn Bynum to help Jacksonville’s pass coverage woes. If it’s for this season and beyond, though, I’d go with Addison.
The Jaguars’ receiver depth has been horrific for a few years now. General manager Trent Baalke has put together viable starting trios, but once one guy goes down, things get ugly. Jacksonville doesn’t have enough wideouts with inside-outside versatility. With Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis out last week, two sub-six-foot slot receivers were thrown onto the field. It was not effective.
Davis has been an underwhelming free agent addition so far this season, but if Trevor Lawrence can have Addison, Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram to throw to for the next few years, it’d go a long way for his redemption tour.
5) The Vikings are coming into this game as a road favorite and looking to start a three-game road swing on the right foot. How do you see the Jaguars faring in this one?
Lawrence is dealing with shoulder soreness so Mac Jones is expected to start. If Lawrence was playing, I’d expect the Vikings to win and cover the spread; if Jones plays, I’d expect a near-shutout double-digit loss for Jacksonville.
As I previously mentioned, Pederson hasn’t done enough to adapt his offense. He is also far more reactive than proactive; the Jaguars rank 28th in first quarter points this year partly because Pederson likes to see what the defense is doing and then adjust, rather than building a game plan that will keep the defense on its toes from the first snap. I think the Vikings will jump out to an early lead and harass Jones for four quarters in front of the Jaguars’ home crowd. My score prediction is Minnesota 24, Jacksonville 10.
Thanks to Gus for taking the time to sit down and answer our questions for this week!
