Detroit Lions vs. Houston Texans preview, prediction: On Paper

The Houston Texans and Detroit Lions face off on “Sunday Night Football” in a game that could realistically be a preview of Super Bowl 59.

The Texans may not be playing their best ball right now, but if they can get over some current injuries, they could absolutely make a late-season run that carries over into the playoffs.

But injuries are a big story this week for both teams. Let’s take a look at the injuries, statistical matchups, and advantages in our Lions vs. Texans preview and prediction—On Paper.

Lions pass offense (11th) vs. Texans pass defense (6th)

The passing yards have plummeted in recent weeks, but both of the last two games have been anomalies. Against the Titans, Detroit still managed to score seven touchdowns, often because of short fields. Against the Packers, both an early lead and terrible weather conditions forced Detroit into a very conservative passing game.

And despite the yardage downturn, the efficiency numbers remain electric. Here’s where the Lions offense ranks for the season, even despite that slow start to the year:

• Fourth in yards per attempt (8.6)
• Second in passer rating (117.2)
• Fifth in EPA/dropback (+0.184)
• Ninth in success rate (50.0%)

After a rough few games, the Lions’ pass protection is back and humming along. They rank ninth in pass block win rate (64%) and 15th in PFF pass blocking grade, despite ranking 17th in pressure percentage (34.8%) and 22nd in sack percentage (8.0%). It’s still not what we’ve come to expect out of this Lions offensive line, but it’s not a serious issue, either.

That said, the mid-week injury to Taylor Decker is definitely concerning. His status is very much unknown at the time of writing this, as we only know he was limited on Thursday with a new shoulder injury. If he can’t go, the Lions will have to be forced to play Dan Skipper, who is a major step down.

The Lions get their home-run hitter back this week, with Jameson Williams having served his two-game suspension. Williams is currently second in the NFL in yards per reception (21.2), so his return could certainly have a huge impact.

The first thing that jumps out in the charts is how the Texans have only allowed 200 net passing yards in a single game this season—and to Drake Maye of all quarterbacks.

Part of the reason, here, is the Texans’ incredible pass rush. They rank fourth in sacks (29), second in sack yardage (209), fourth in sack percentage (9.5%), second in pass rush win rate (52%), and second in pressure rate (42.0%).

Now, they could be missing a key piece to their pass rush, as second-year Will Anderson Jr. has yet to practice this week with an ankle injury. Anderson leads the team in sacks (7.5), ranks sixth in pass rush win rate (23%) among EDGEs, and per PFF he’s ninth in pressures across the league (37). That said, Danielle Hunter is doing almost as well, ranking sixth in pressures in the NFL (39).

Don’t sleep on their secondary, either. They rank 11th in PFF coverage grade (67.9), and second in pass deflections (49).

Put it all together, and this is clearly one of the best pass defenses in the league.

• Second in yards per attempt (6.2)
• 10th in passer rating (84.5)
• Sixth in EPA/dropback (-0.0.27)
• Third in success rate (40.6%)

Player to watch: Jalen Pitre vs. Amon-Ra St. Brown. We all know the crazy St. Brown consecutive catch streak, but Pitre—Houston’s second-year nickel defensive back—will provide a nice challenge for him. Pitre has seven pass breakups on the year, and he earned some high, unprompted praise from defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn this week:

“He’s all over the place, great cover guy, great run defender, they’ll blitz him. I think he’s kind of a guy that pops off the tape early in the week.”

Advantage: Draw. The injury uncertainty with both Decker and Anderson makes an already tight matchup one that is nearly impossible to predict. I will say that Detroit has done an excellent job against very good defenses earlier in the season (see: Vikings, Titans, Packers), but I think the Texan’s defense may top them all.

Lions run offense (1st) vs. Texans run defense (4th)

Don’t let last week’s performance fool you, the Lions run offense is still elite. That yards-per-carry number is being dragged down by a 12-yard loss from Kalif Raymond and a trio of kneeldowns from Jared Goff. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 138 yards and 4.9 a carry, well above Green Bay’s defensive averages.

Anyway, here are some other stats to prove Detroit’s incredible efficiency on the ground:

• 4.9 yards per carry (eighth)
• 14 touchdowns (t-second)
• +0.059 rush EPA (first)
• 44.7% success rate (fifth)
• 12.9% stuffed rate (second)
• 5.32 adjusted line yards (first)

At worst, this is a top-five rushing attack.

I’m a little confused about the Texans’ high DVOA ranking in run defense. They’ve allowed about half of their opponents to outgain their averages both in terms of yards and yards per carry. They’ve allowed over 150 rushing yards in three of nine games, and over 4.5 yards per carry in five contests.

That said, some of the advanced metrics point to why they’re ranked so highly—although it’s a mixed bag:

• 4.7 yards per carry (24th)
• 5 touchdowns (t-fourth)
• -0.101 rush EPA (12th)
• 35.5% success rate (sixth)
• 19.8% stuffed rate (fifth)
• 3.83 adjusted line yards (fifth)

So what exactly is happening here? If they’ve got such a high stuffed rate and success rate, how are they giving up so many yards per carry? Part of it is quarterbacks hurting them in the run game. Two of the three 150+ rushing yards allowed games were bolstered by Josh Allen (54 rushing yards) and Anthony Richardson (45).

But perhaps most notably for this matchup: the Texans have allowed the seventh-most rushing plays of 15+ yards in the NFL, with 16 (or nearly two per game).

Player to watch: Frank Ragnow/Kevin Zeitler vs. Texans DTs. Ragnow ranks fourth among center in run blocking grade (88.6), while Zeitler has quietly ranked 11th (76.3). They’re going up against a Texans interior defensive line that can get pushed around. Folorunso Fatukasi ranks 115th out of 121 defensive tackles in run defense grade (36.4) and Tim Settle (40.6 grade, 107th) isn’t much better.

Advantage: Lions +2. Maybe I’m overly optimistic here, but I think the Texans’ run defense is built upon lying statistics. Detroit should be able to keep their streak of 100-yard games alive, and I think this could be a solid David Montgomery game with how vulnerable the Texans are on the interior.

Texans pass offense (21st) vs. Lions pass defense (3rd)

The Texans offense got off to a pretty nice start in the first five games—in line with what we saw from C.J. Stroud’s rookie season. But around the midway point, things dropped pretty significantly. What changed? Well, it’s hard to ignore how much the loss of receiver Nico Collins has hurt the overall passing game efficiency. Just take a look:

• With Nico Collins: 130-of-190 (68.4%) for 1,362 yards (7.2 Y/A), 7 TDs, 3 INTs, 97.2 passer rating
• Without Nico Collins: 66-of-121 (54.5%) for 663 yards (5.2 Y/A), 4 TDs, 1 INT, 81.1 passer rating

The difference has been massive, and Collins is on track to miss this game again—on top of Stefon Diggs’ season-ending injury just two weeks ago. Now it’s pretty much just the Tank Dell show, who admittedly had a productive game last week (six catches, 126 yards).

Making matters worse, the Texans’ offensive line has been brutal in pass protection. They rank 28th in pass block win rate (53%), 21st in PFF pass blocking grade (64.2), 30th in pressure percentage (41.3%), and 26th in sack percentage (9.1%). The issues are primarily on the interior. Left guard Kenyon Green has allowed a team-high 18 pressures and five sacks. He’s now injured, but his replacement, Kendrick Green currently has a 4.3 PFF pass blocking grade. Yes, you read that right.

The Lions’ run defense is a bit of an enigma, too. They give up a lot of yards (250.8, 29th), a decent amount of yards per attempt (6.9, 16th), but they’re also very handsy. They’re seventh in pass breakups (44) and tied for second in interceptions (11). If the interceptions suddenly disappear, this would look like a much more average pass defense, but it’s clear these interceptions are not a bug of the defense, but rather a feature of a man-heavy scheme that funnels passes toward their talented safety duo. As a team, Detroit actually ranks second in PFF coverage grade (85.4).

What started as an excellent pass rushing unit has struggled since the absences of Aidan Hutchinson and Josh Paschal. The Lions expect Paschal to return this week, and it’s not quite clear yet if new trade asset Za’Darius Smith will give it a go this week. The Lions gave him two days off to start this week, so his first day in the building will be Friday.

The high yardage number is not necessarily something to be concerned about, as most of the damage done against Detroit’s defense is of the short variety. Here’s the Lions’ defensive EPA by passing depth:

• Deep passes (20+ air yards): +0.02 (eighth best)
• Intermediate passes (10-19 yards): -0.23 (second best)
• Short passes (under 10 yards): -0.13 (sixth best)

Okay, so they’re efficient at everything, but of the 250.8 yards per game they’re allowing, 143.6 of them are coming of the short variety. That’s the fourth most yardage allowed on short passes.

In other words, Detroit is doing a good job of forcing checkdowns and keeping everything in front of them.

Player to watch: Alim McNeill. McNeill is coming off a seven-pressure game, and he could explode against a weak Texans interior. Per PFF, McNeill ranks eighth in pass rush grade (77.6) among defensive tackles.

Advantage: Lions +2. While I’m worried about Stroud’s ability to make plays out of the pocket and still question whether Detroit will be able to create a pass rush, particularly if Smith doesn’t play, I’m just not too afraid of the Texans’ receiving corps, assuming Collins doesn’t play.

Texans run offense (20th) vs. Lions run defense (9th)

It appears after the Collins injury, the Texans have found a new commitment to the running game, and it’s worked. Joe Mixon has been the team’s workhorse back, and he’s been phenomenal in the past four weeks. Since Week 6, he ranks:

• Third in rushing yards (425)
• 11th in yards per attempt (4.9)
• t-first in rushing touchdowns (five)

That said, he’s just 32nd in success rate over that span, suggesting there are a lot of unsuccessful runs mixed in with the good ones. In fact, for the season, the Texans have the second-highest stuffed rate (21.5%). Again, it goes back to the offensive line, where the Texans rank 28th in run block win rate (68%), 24th in PFF run blocking grade (60.3), and 18th in adjusted line yards. In other words, Mixon is doing his best to succeed in spite of his offensive line.

The Lions’ run defense has undoubtedly encountered some problems in the post-Hutchinson era. Lacking Marcus Davenport, Derrick Barnes, Josh Paschal, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Mekhi Wingo at times hasn’t helped, either. Paschal and Wingo are expected to be back this week, and the addition of Smith will help, if he plays. But, otherwise, I think there is still some cause for concern here.

The overall numbers for the season are just okay:

• 25th in yards per carry (4.8)
• Ninth in rush EPA (-0.117)
• 11th in success rate (37.4%)

Player to watch: DJ Reader. Reader actually hasn’t been at his best this season. In fact, his 59.2 run defense grade is the worst of his career. But against a weak Texans interior line, this could be a bounce-back game for him.

Advantage: Lions +1. I’m not very confident in Detroit’s run defense right now—particularly with a banged-up linebacking crew that could be without Barnes, Rodriguez, and Jalen Reeves-Maybin. That said, the Lions’ interior defensive line is a huge bowl of trouble for the Texans. As long as Detroit’s tackling is sound on Sunday night, this shouldn’t be a huge issue—although the trends for each team are mildly disturbing.

Last week’s prediction:

I don’t think any adjustments from last week’s prediction are necessary. The game played out relatively as I had expected, with both teams finding a decent amount of success on the ground. While my prediction of 24-20 Lions wasn’t super close to the 24-14 final, I did pick the right team, beat the spread, and even rightfully hit the under. On Paper is now 7-1 overall and 6-2 against the spread.

In the comment section, Datertots nearly hit the perfect score with their 24-13 prediction. Here’s your prize:

It’s a commemorative 20th anniversary VHS tape of the Lions’ last (and only) victory against the Texans. Forget the Thanksgiving theft game. Forget the other Thanksgiving game that ended Matt Patricia’s career. Bask in the glory of this 28-16 victory in 2004 that featured an Eddie Drummond 99-yard kickoff return and a pair of Roy Williams touchdowns.

This week’s prediction:

The Lions come out with a fairly decisive +5 advantage in this matchup, and I think it’s warranted. If Houston had both Anderson and Collins, I think they could make a huge difference in this game. However, it appears both are trending towards missing Sunday’s contest, and that gives Detroit a huge out.

And, in general, the Lions are playing much better football than the Texans are right now. I think this is a pretty favorable matchup for Detroit, and it results in Houston’s first back-to-back losses of the season. Lions 27, Texans 17.