Giants vs. Panthers: What to expect when Carolina has the ball

The New York Giants will travel to Munich, Germany to take on the Carolina Panthers in Week 10.

The Giants have been significantly better on the road than at home, and it’s tough to get much more “on the road” than traveling to another continent.

This is a game between 2-7 teams, but the Giants are strong favorites and this is widely regarded as the most winnable game on the Giants’ schedule. While the Giants’ record has been disappointing and there have been frustrating failures, mistakes, and miscues in every game, they’ve been competitive. The Panthers, meanwhile, have been largely bad on both sides of the ball and are one of the weakest teams in the NFL.

The Giants have (potentially) winnable games after their bye week, but this will be the Giants’ best chance to keep the flicker of hope alive into the second half of their season.

This game will also be a reunion between newly-acquired edge defender Brian Burns and the team that drafted him. Burns is already familiar with much of the Panthers’ offense, but what can the rest of the Giants’ defense expect when Carolina has the ball?

Stats that matter

Bryce Young to start at quarterback

Panthers’ head coach Dave Canales engaged in some gamesmanship earlier this week and initially refused to say whether Bryce Young or Andy Dalton would start at quarterback.

There’s a case to be made for each quarterback to start — though neither case involves them being a great quarterback. But while they benched Young in favor of Dalton, it’s also pretty clear that Dalton isn’t in the Panthers’ long-term plans.

So it isn’t much of a surprise that Young Canales announced Wednesday that Young would be back in the starting lineup.

It also just so happens that Young is coming off what might be the best game of his career in an upset win over a division opponent. And it’s a game in which he showed the kind of growth the Panthers have been waiting to see from him.

Young is a very undersized quarterback, and lacks the kind of physical traits boasted by other undersized passers like Kyler Murray or Russell Wilson. However, Young was considered to be an elite processor with a sky-high football IQ coming out of college. He was drafted on his ability to understand and process the game, and put the ball where it needs to be.

There were certainly still hiccups in Young’s play against the Saints. There was a slight tendency toward indecision when he had to make extended progression reads, as well as force the ball when he made up his mind where he was going before the snap. That said, he also showed the anticipation, accuracy, and football IQ for which he was drafted.

We’ll start with the first play of the game, which is a quick bootleg rollout.

The play starts with rookie receiver Xavier Legette going in motion to the top of the screen. After the snap, Young shows the play-action before rolling out while RB Chuba Hubbard releases into the flat. Young checks him quickly while rolling out, but sees that he’s covered before moving on to his second option in the progression read. The design of the play, with run-action, receiver motion, and the offensive line blocking to the left, sucks up the second level defenders and pulls them out of position. Wide receiver David Moore runs a shallow crossing route against the grain, using the second level defenders to create a rub force separation from the defender covering him.

Young sees the open receiver and does a good job of putting the ball where Moore can catch it and pick up yards after the catch.

The best example, however, came on the final throw of the game, which set up the game-winning touchdown.

The Panthers run a 3-man dagger concept on the play-side here. The slot receiver runs a post route, clearing out coverage in the middle of the field for Xavier Legette who runs the deep over into the void. Young does a fantastic job of identifying the coverage and throwing with touch, accuracy, and anticipation. He starts his throwing motion before Legette even clears the 50-yard line and well before he breaks toward the middle of the field. Young also understands where the linebacker is in the middle of the field and throws over him, layering the ball with touch where only Legette can make a play on it.

The Giants should understand that there’s the potential that Young is elevating his game and not take him lightly.

Stop the run

The Panthers’ passing attack isn’t particularly scary. They have pieces to create big plays, but they’re young players and prone to inconsistent play so the Giants’ pass rush should be able to contain that element of their offense.

The bigger concern is their running game.

The Giants’ run defense has been a source of embarrassment over the last several weeks, and has tumbled to be one of the worst in the NFL. The strength of the Panthers’ offense (such as it is) has been their running game. They’re middling in terms of overall efficiency, but that’s actually pretty good considering the state of their passing attack. That’s due to solid run blocking and some great running from starting

Teams don’t really need to fear them over the top, so they’re more free to stack the box. Hubbard has seen eight (or more) defenders in the tackle box on one out of every five of his carries this year. However, he’s tied for eighth in the NFL in yards per carry at 5.0 and is the Panthers’ most consistent weapon with six total touchdowns (five rushing, one receiving) through nine games.

Hubbard has solid size at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds, to go with great vision, good contact balance and change of direction skills, and good long speed. He’s at his best running out of zone blocking schemes, using his vision to identify cutback lanes and his movement skills to exploit them. Hubbard isn’t the same kind of threat as Saquon Barkley, but he’s capable of creating big plays. Most recently, he turned a first-and-10 into a 16-yard touchdown run to complete the Panthers’ upset win over the Saints.

The Giants have struggled to maintain their gap integrity up front, and have been hurt by zone runs in recent weeks. Their interior run defense is stout with Dexter Lawrence on the field, but the big man can’t play every snap. Teams have been quick to attack the interior of the Giants’ defense when Lawrence rotates off the field for a rest.

Likewise, the Panthers could look to attack edge Azeez Ojulari on the outside when he’s in the game. While Ojulari has been a dangerous speed rusher, he’s struggled to consistently set the edge and be stout in the run game.

The Giants showed a willingness to depart from their usual two-deep coverage shell against the Washington Commanders — at least until Jayden Daniels proved he could hurt them through the air. We could see a similar scheme against the Panthers. Using additional defenders in the tackle box would allow the Giants to devote a single defender to individual gaps while keeping defenders free to flow to the ball. Doing so is a risk, as it creates more potential for one-on-one matchups down the field. However, stopping the run should be the Giants top priority.

Limit mental mistakes

As far as X’s and O’s go, this isn’t a particularly complicated game. As mentioned in the introduction, while the Giants are probably better than their record says they are, the Panthers are every bit as bad and maybe even worse.

With that in mind, the Giants need to avoid the pitfalls they’ve exploited against better teams in the past. The most notable of these is simple mistakes that allow the other team to hang around. When the Giants have won over the last three years, the formula is usually playing efficient offense, stingy defense, and allowing the other team to make the mistakes — and then capitalizing on those mistakes. The Giants are the better team this week, with a defense that’s generally played well against some of the best offenses in the NFL.

Perhaps the biggest key to this game is simply avoiding giving the Panthers a chance. The Giants should be able to pressure the opposing quarterback (whoever it is). And while their running game presents a potential problem, that will be tough to lean on without much of a threat through the air.

So it falls on the Giants’ defense to be disciplined and avoid hurting themselves. The most obvious issue is penalties — the Giants defense is tied with the Vikings for 10th most defensive penalties in the NFL (61) and has the ninth-most penalty yards (503). The good news is that the Giants don’t often give up first downs by penalty (11, 8th-fewest in the NFL). However, giving a bad offense hidden yardage can help sustain drives and ultimately lead to points.

But there are other areas where mental mistakes lead to hidden yardage. Most notably, the Giants have the fourth-most missed tackles at 61. That comes up most often in the run game, and (as mentioned above) Chuba Hubbard is a tough running back to get on the ground.

Hubbard is also a capable receiver, and is the Panthers’ third-most targeted pass catcher behind rookies Xavier Legette and Ja’Tavion Sanders.

Sanders, the Panthers’ tight end, is also a player to watch for and averages 6.6 yards above expected per reception. And that’s another area where the Giants can’t get out over their skis. Neither Bryce Young nor Andy Dalton is a threatening quarterback. However, the Giants have had problems with miscommunications and blown coverages throughout their season. Both Legette and Sanders are big, athletic targets with the ability to create after the catch. Each of them has the ability to play out of multiple alignments and is a dangerous ball carrier in run-after-catch situations as well as on screen plays.

As with Hubbard in the running game, the Giants can’t afford missed tackles or to lose either Legette or Sanders in coverage.

Discipline has been an issue for the Giants of late on both sides of the ball. They will have a marked talent advantage this game, so they can’t allow themselves to give the Panthers any extra chances.