Fantasy football ‘24: Week 10 fantasy preview—Start/sit and more

Welcome to Week 10. We’re firmly into the second half of the fantasy football season, and the playoff push. I’m sure some of you badly need a win this week, and hopefully you’re able to field a competitive lineup. A major story in the NFL this season continues to be a steady onslaught of injuries at the wide receiver position, and in Week 9 a few more of the biggest names were casualties. A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, and Chris Olave all left their Week 9 games, with ailments of varying severity. I wrote about this in my Week 10 waivers column, so I won’t belabor it further here. It’s usually the running backs and in recent years also the quarterbacks who’ve been decimated the most by injuries. So far this season, it’s the receivers, and it’s had an impact on a bunch of NFL offenses, and of course, on our little game.

Stats of the Week:

The Chiefs have won 14 straight games, including playoffs.

Betting favorites went 15-1 straight-up in Week 9 (the only favorite to lose was the Saints).

The Giants are favored this week for the first time since Week 2 of the 2023 season. The Panthers (who play the Giants in Munich on Sunday) have not been favored in 28 straight contests, dating back to the 2022 season.

Only one quarterback has thrown 50+ TD passes since the start of the 2023 season, and his name is Baker Mayfield.

TheChargers

Jaylen Waddle on Sunday: 2 catches for -4 yards and a TD.

David Carr has the most losses all-time of any starting quarterback through the first four, five, and six seasons of a career. His brother Derek Carr now has the most losses all-time of any starting QB through the first seven, eight, nine, 10, and 11 seasons of a career.

More Carr wrecks: Derek Carr has now lost to every NFL team except the Raiders. Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, no QB has lost to every team (not even Ryan Fitzpatrick). The Saints play the Raiders in Week 17.

Guffaws of the Week:

The Colts didn’t run a single play inside Minnesota’s 20 yard-line (the red zone) on Sunday night.

One week after giving up a game-losing walk-off TD on a Hail Mary pass that didn’t even reach the end zone, the Bears had another total breakdown on defense at the end of a half. They allowed Cardinals’ backup RB Emari Demercado to score on a 53-yard run with four seconds remaining in the first half. It was the longest rushing TD in the final 30 seconds of a half since at least 2000.

Week 10, here we go!

Bye Weeks: CLE, GB, LV, SEA

Week 10 Rides, Fades and Sleepers

For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, in many cases, as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise, and as a general rule, always start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are matchup-proof and are almost always expected to have strong performances, plus you don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Justin Jefferson, or George Kittle. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.

Each week, I’m picking a Ride of the Week, a Fade of the Week, and a Sleeper of the Week. The rules are simple. The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade of the Week can’t be someone who almost nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper of the Week must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.

The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers had a strong showing in Week 9. The QB calls, including Ride of the Week Patrick Mahomes and Fade of the Week C.J. Stroud, were particularly spot-on. You can check my work here: Week 9 Preview.

Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images

Ride of the Week:

Devon Achane (@LAR). Achane has been a boss in the two weeks since Tua returned, with heavy involvement as both a runner and receiver. His 52 combined fantasy points the past two weeks are tops at the position during that span. He’s also getting RB1 usage, which wasn’t really expected. And he has yet to break one of those 60+ yard TDs, but it’s coming. The Rams are a favorable matchup.

Fade of the Week:

Christian McCaffrey (@TB). It’s hard to believe I just typed that. Could McCaffrey be his usual old self, with 20+ touches, 125+ scrimmage yards, a handful of catches, and a couple of scores? Yes, he could. But if he does in fact suit up Sunday, it’ll be his first game action of the season, coming of a weird soft tissue leg injury that had him flying to Germany for consultation and treatment. I can’t trust him the first week back, as I suspect he’ll be eased in, plus there is re-injury risk. If you drafted him, I know you’ve waited a long time for this, so I can’t blame you if you plug him in. But he could end up with a very limited workload. He’s ranked as the RB12 this week and I think that’s too high.

Sleeper of the Week:

Daniel Jones (@CAR, Munich). It’s always a little risky to roll with Jones, but it’s a great matchup and he’s coming off a monster second half vs. the Commanders, part of a 24 point day for him. Jones and the Giants have struggled to score TDs, but he gets extra points with his legs and can give you a spike week. The Panthers are that rare defense that you can run OR throw on. What fun! They’re bottom-five in TD passes, yards, and fantasy points per game (FPPG) allowed to opposing quarterbacks. If you need to start him, don’t be scared. As an added bonus, you can get up early to watch him give you points. Hate on Jones all you want, but he has more Top-12 weekly finishes this season than Patrick Mahomes and C.J. Stroud combined. Fantasy and reality sometimes aren’t the same.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images

Quarterback:

Elite options this week – Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels (but note, he has a very tough matchup vs. PIT), and Joe Burrow;

Rides:

Brock Purdy (@TB), Sam Darnold (@JAC), and Kirk Cousins (@NO). A three-fer! I’m listing these three together because they’re all going on the road, they’re all ranked inside the Top-10 this week, and each one has a decent shot to finish as a Top-5 QB on the week. The Bucs and Jaguars are both Bottom-10 units in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing QBs, while the Saints are just outside the Bottom-10, and they just traded away Marshon Lattimore. Ride ‘em!

Other QBs inside the Top-15 this week who I think could beat their weekly rankings are Tua Tagovailoa (@LAR) and Aaron Rodgers (@ARI).

Sleepers:

Caleb Williams (vs. NE). Williams has put up some stinkers the last couple of weeks, and a lot of his advanced metrics, like on-target throw rate, are pretty bad. He’s a rookie, who maybe isn’t getting the best coaching in the world. He’s had some spike weeks though, and the Bears need a bounce-back this week at home. He could be in for a decent outing against the Patriots. Check his practice status, as he got banged up at the end of the Cardinals’ game.

Russell Wilson (@WAS). I don’t feel great about any of the sleeper calls at quarterback this week, other than Daniel Jones. The Commanders have played much better pass defense of late, other than that second half against the Giants where they gave up three total TDs and almost 200 passing yards (to Jones). Wilson is an OK play if you need him.

Fades:

Kyler Murray (vs. NYJ). Poor Kyler. His schedule has gotten very tough and this makes four straight weeks where he’s on my Fades list. I assure you, it’s nothing personal. This fade call hit last week also, as the Cardinals ran all over the Bears and Kyler didn’t even break five fantasy points. Like the Bears, the Jets are Top-5 in fewest FPPG allowed to QBs, and I think it’ll be another modest output for Kyler.

Patrick Mahomes (vs. DEN) and Bo Nix (@KC). I’ll put both of these QBs back in the garage as these are two of the NFL’s best defenses, despite what the Ravens did to the Broncos last week. What Mahomes did last week was encouraging, and I had him as my Ride of the Week, but it came against the Bucs. I expect him to go back towards his normal output (for this season) against Denver. I don’t trust Nix against good teams.

Others: Drake Maye (@CHI), Joe Flacco (vs. BUF) and TEN QBs (@LAC).

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Running back:

Elite options this week – Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, and Bijan Robinson; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (@CAR, Munich). Tracy has taken over as Big Blue’s lead back and hasn’t looked back. The fifth round rookie from Purdue has been running hard, breaking tackles, and producing. New York fell behind by two TDs last week which hurt his rushing total, but he’s still the RB14 over the last four weeks. And did I tell you about the matchup? That’s the really exciting part! So let me tell you about it. Carolina has allowed the most carries, rushing yards, rushing TDs and FPPG to opposing running backs. Lass uns gehen!

D’Andre Swift (vs. NE). Chicago needs a get-right game in the worst way, and thankfully for them, they’ve got New England at home this week. They’ve won when Swift has been prominently involved and I expect a steady dose of him on Sunday. New England has allowed the second most rushing yards and third most FPPG to opposing RBs. Swift had 19 or more fantasy points in four straight games before the Arizona game in Week 9, and the Bears trailed throughout in that one. He’s ranked outside the Top-10 this week and I have him as a Top-10 play.

Others ranked inside the Top-24 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings are Jonathan Taylor (vs. BUF), James Cook (@IND), David Montgomery (@HOU), Kareem Hunt (vs. DEN), and Mr. payday, Chuba Hubbard (vs. NYG, Munich).

Sleepers:

Rachaad White and Bucky Irving (vs. SF). I think both are Flex-worthy this week, as they’re both being used to catch passes and to carry the ball. The 49ers have been mediocre against the run, and the Bucs figure to run it a decent amount in this one. Of the two, I slightly prefer White as he’s out-snapped Irving 114-79 over the last three weeks. The depleted receiver corps might be without Jalen McMillan this week, so I think the backs should be very involved in the passing game, alongside Cade Otten.

Tyler Allgeier (@NO). The Saints have lost seven in a row, and if this game starts to get out of hand, Allgeier could get even more run than he usually does. Either way, he’s always playable if you’re stuck.

Others you can consider if you’re desperate: Ray Davis (@IND), Raheem Mostert (@LAR), Cam Akers (@JAC), and Roschon Johnson (vs. NE).

Fades:

Tony Pollard (@LAC). He’s coming off a big 128-yard game vs. the Patriots and should again see plenty of volume, but the matchup is tough and it’s likely Tennessee will be playing from behind, so the attempts could decrease in the second half. The Chargers have allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards, fewest rushing TDs (one) and second fewest FPPG to opposing RBs. Temper expectations.

Javonte Williams (@KC). Williams has been up-and-down this season, and mostly it’s been down. He has only one weekly Top-10 finish, and only two weeks with double digit fantasy points. This week’s matchup is unlikely to produce a spike week, as the Chiefs have allowed the fewest rushing attempts, yards, and FPPG to opposing RBs. Pass.

More RB Fades: Rico Dowdle (vs. PHI) and Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby (vs. MIN).

Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Wide receiver:

Elite options this week –Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown (if he plays), Nico Collins (ditto), Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyreek Hill (one more down week and I’ll remove him from this status);CeeDee Lamb from the elite list, with Dak Prescott out.

Rides:

Deebo Samuel (@TB). With Brandon Aiyuk gone, he should see a slight uptick in volume and even if Christian McCaffrey returns I think he’ll still get some carries. The 49ers are coming off a Bye and an extra week for Kyle Shanahan to prepare, while the Bucs are coming off an overtime road loss on Monday. Major advantage: 49ers’ offense. The Bucs are a Bottom-10 defense vs. the pass, and Samuel has Top-5 upside this week.

Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams (@ARI). I like them both this week, although Arizona’s defense has been better than advertised, and especially at home where they’ve held some decent offenses in check. They’re still below-average vs. the pass, though, and I think Rodgers and his receivers are going on a mini-run, which started last Thursday night.

Zay Flowers (@CIN). Zay is coming off a big game, and these two teams have a ton of firepower and a tendency to get into shootouts. Flowers is ranked just outside the Top-15 WRs this week and I’ve got him as a Top-12 play.

Other receivers ranked from 12-30 that I think should outperform their ranking this week include: Devonta Smith (@DAL), George Pickens (@WAS), Terry McLaurin (vs. PIT), Darnell Mooney (@NO), and Khalil Shakir (@IND).

Sleepers (ranked outside the Top 30):

Jaylen Waddle (@LAR). I get it. He’s been awful. But when you start ranking him this low, I’m interested. The Rams allow the fifth-most FPPG to opposing wide receivers and this game has some sneaky shootout potential. Waddle scored last week and I think he’ll have a decent game. But I get it if you can’t hit click when you see his name. In the two games since Tua returned, he’s had 6.5 and 6.6 fantasy points. Consistency! He’ll be better than that this week.

Other wide receivers ranked outside the top-30 this week that I think you can go with if you’re in need: Rome Odunze (vs. NE), Xavier Legette (vs. NYG, Munich), Darius Slayton (@CAR, Munich), RayRay McCloud (@NO), and Ricky Pearsall (@TB).

Fades:

Marvin Harrison, Jr. (vs. NYJ). Harrison is so hard to trust, as the volume just isn’t there most weeks, even if the raw talent is. It’s a run-heavy offense and he’s now gone six straight games with seven targets or less. Against the Jets, I’d seriously consider sitting him if you’ve got other options. New York has allowed the fewest catches to opposing WRs, and the sixth-fewest FPPG.

Courtland Sutton (@KC). He’s coming off a big game (7-for-122 on 10 targets), so why the Fade? This is mostly about the matchup. I don’t see Bo Nix doing a whole lot against this defense, which has allowed the fewest passing yards to wide receivers. I have Sutton as no more than a Flex play (at best) this week.

Xavier Worthy (vs. DEN). With each passing week, Worthy is looking less and less like he’s ready to be a meaningful part of this offense. Monday night was particularly bad, as poor sideline footwork cost him an easy TD, and he lost 10 yards on his two touches, both of which were runs. There’s FOMO here given his long speed, but it’s too risky for me. The Broncos are also a tough matchup (third fewest FPPG allowed to opposing WRs), although Zay Flowers did a number on them last week).

Others:

Chargers’ WRs (vs. TEN). The Titans have been the stingiest defense against wide receivers (fewest FPPG allowed, second fewest receiving yards allowed, and just five receiving TDs). It’s also a challenge trying to figure out which Chargers’ wide receiver is likeliest to get the targets and TDs, as there isn’t a clear pecking order. They’ve been throwing a lot more lately, so I get it if you want to take a shot with one of them, but it’s a guessing game, in a tough matchup.

Patriots’ WRs (@CHI). The Bears have allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing WRs, and they’ve only allowed four receiving TDs to WRs on the season (tied with the Steelers for fewest in the league). New England is another team with a multitude of WRs. I’d stay away.

Jaguars’ WRs (vs. MIN). I get it if you want to roll with Brian Thomas, Jr., and especially if he’s your WR3 or Flex, but assuming Trevor Lawrence misses this game as expected, I’m a little scared of Mac Jones against this aggressive defense.

Saints’ WRs (vs. ATL). It’s a decent matchup, but who are their heathy WRs right now? Almost nobody you’ve heard of. I’d stay away from the group.

Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images

Tight end:

Elite option this week – Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and Brock Bowers; the analysis starts below them.

Rides:

Cade Otton (vs. SF). He’s become a must-start, and given his performance since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin got hurt, I should probably be listing him with the elite options. He’s averaging 19 fantasy points per game the last three weeks, and is the overall TE1 over that period. That torrid stretch has lifted him up to the TE3 on the season. He’s a must-start right now, and I’d certainly be playing him over guys like Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride, among other “TE1” options.

Mike Gesicki (vs. BAL). Like Otton, Gesicki is taking advantage of opportunity resulting from injury. With Tee Higgins (quad) expected out again this week, Gesicki should continue to shine. He led all tight ends with 24.5 fantasy points in Week 9 and he should be in for another strong performance in a plus-matchup. The Ravens have allowed the third most yards and fifth most catches to opposing TEs, and this game could easily devolve into a “whoever has the ball last wins” kind of contest.

Other TEs in the Top-15 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking: Dalton Kincaid (@IND), Taysom Hill (vs. ATL), Evan Engram (vs. MIN), and Mark Andrews (@CIN).

Sleepers:

Zach Ertz (vs. PIT). Ertz only caught one ball at the Giants last week, but they’re the No. 1 defense against tight ends. He should get back to his usual workload this week, which isn’t great, but if you’re stuck he’s got an OK floor most weeks.

Theo Johnson (@CAR, Munich). Johnson is coming off his best game of the season, which included a long TD on a seam route. The Giants’ coaches would be well-advised to try to continue getting him more involved, and in a plus-matchup this week, he’s got some upside. The Panthers have allowed the most total TDs (seven) and FPPG to opposing TEs.

Other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 that I think can be slotted in this week if needed: Dallas Goedert (@DAL, if he suits up) and Juwan Johnson (vs. ATL).

Fades:

Sam LaPorta (@HOU). I know, I’m right there with you, holding the bag. Enough is enough! LaPorta just hasn’t been needed in the same way this season. Nobody can stop the Lions’ ground game, and their defense is much improved, meaning they don’t need to air it out as much. LaPorta has three or fewer targets in five of eight games played, with a high of six targets. That’s not enough volume to be a TE1, plus the Lions get Jameson Williams back from suspension this week. More bad news: The matchup is also tough. The Texans have allowed the fewest receiving yards and the third fewest FPPG to opposing tight ends. Let me know when you’ve heard enough reasons for this Fade call.

Jake Ferguson (vs. PHI). Cooper Rush has shown in the past that he can be serviceable, but that was when Dallas had a very strong running game and O-line. I’m slightly terrified of playing any Cowboys this week, other than maybe CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aubrey. The Eagles held the Giants to three points a couple of weeks ago, and the Jaguars got very little done through the air last week. Philadelphia has defended TEs well (they’ve allowed zero TDs and the fourth-fewest FPPG to the position). Pass.

Pat Freiermuth (@WAS). There was some excitement when Russell Wilson took over, but it hasn’t made much of a difference. ‘Muth has had three targets or less in four straight games. Unless and until they start using him more, he’s a tough start.

Other TE Fades (of players you could be considering): Cole Kmet (vs. NE), Dalton Schultz (vs. DET), and Tyler Conklin (@ARI).

PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12): See my Week 10 Waivers column.

That’s all I’ve got. Good luck in Week 10!

***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly FanDuel Props of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***