The Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown connection defies all probabilities

The Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff connection is defying all probabilities.

Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown have something special. That is not news. We’ve known this for the better part of St. Brown’s entire career. Goff can literally hit St. Brown with his eyes closed.

But the Detroit Lions offensive duo has accomplished something that is so rare, so improbable that it’s damn-near unbelievable, even knowing how much these two have accomplished over the past 3.5 seasons.

In Goff’s last 30 passing attempts to St. Brown, he completed exactly 30 passes. That’s right, St. Brown has caught all 30 of his last targets from Goff. A target to St. Brown hasn’t hit the turf since Week 3 against the Cardinals—when he “only” managed to catch seven of his eight targets.

If that seems nearly impossible, that’s because it nearly is. NextGenStats took the probability of St. Brown catching each individual pass (based on ball location, receiver separation, etc.), and the likelihood that he catches all 30 of them is 0.0001%—or approximately one in 780,000.

“He’s the friendliest target I’ve ever thrown to,” Goff said after the Lions’ 24-14 win over the Packers. “I’m lucky to play with him and I hope to play with him for quite some time. He’s a hard worker, he does everything right. I love him.”

On Sunday, Goff and St. Brown connected for seven passes, 56 yards and one of the most improbable touchdown catches of the week. On fourth-and-1 in the red zone, St. Brown ran a double move, but didn’t get much separation. The play required a perfect back shoulder throw from Goff and a clean catch and toe tap from St. Brown. They both delivered.

It’s a perfect example of just how detailed and locked-in both players are right now.