Per DVOA, the Detroit Lions are now favorites to win the Super Bowl. Details here.
The Detroit Lions have the second-best record in football at 7-1. Their point differential is top in the league at +110. They’ve now defeated both of the teams threatening them in the division in road games and have won six straight.
But what I’m about to tell you may still rock you to your core.
According to DVOA—a statistic that assigns a value to every play and adjusts it to the strength of the opponent—the Lions are now the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Per their playoff odds model, the Lions have a 48.1 percent chance to make the Super Bowl and a 26.8 percent chance to win it. That’s basically a one-in-two chance to make the franchise’s first-ever Super Bowl and over a one-in-four chance to win it all.
To dig further into their probability model, they have the Lions with a 99.2 percent chance to make the playoffs and an 83.2 percent chance to win the division. Only the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have higher percentages in both, and that’s because the Bills are a 7-2 team in a division with the 3-6 Jets, 2-6 Dolphins, and 2-7 Patriots, and the Chiefs are undefeated and returning Super Bowl champs.
Other fun facts from the DVOA probability model:
The three most likely Super Bowl matchups:
- Lions vs. Chiefs (18.4% chance)
- Lions vs. Ravens (14.3%)
- Lions vs. Bills (8.2%)
After back-to-back losses, the 4-4 Chicago Bears now have just a 5.8 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Packers (64.8%) and Vikings (82.8%) are still very much in the playoff picture and more likely than not to make the postseason.
For what it’s worth, the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (+420) remain the betting odds favorite to win the Super Bowl. But the Lions (+600) are not far behind.
Check out FTN Fantasy for a full look at their playoff and Super Bowl odds.
