Breaking down 3 key matchups for Lions vs Packers with a deep statistical dive.
The Detroit Lions are looking to strengthen their conference and division lead and beat the Green Bay Packers for a fifth time in the last six contests dating back to Week 18 of Dan Campbell’s first season.
Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics were made available via NFL Pro. Now, let’s take a look at what the Lions are up against with these cheeseheads in my three biggest matchups.
Love is Blind.. against the blitz
The biggest key for the Lions’ defensive efforts will be limiting quarterback Jordan Love from taking over with his rare arm talents and complementary, well-rounded receiving corps. Even with the injured groin, Love has a capability like few quarterbacks to get on a heater as evidenced by his league leading 7.5% touchdown rate.
Luckily for the Lions, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn may be up to the task in this matchup.
The Lions defense’s 32.2% blitz rate is the sixth highest in the NFL. Their defense has also increased their blitzing without Aidan Hutchinson, as they’ve blitzed on 47% of dropbacks the last two weeks. Just like down the stretch last year, Glenn will be deploying extra defenders in the pass rush. Meanwhile, the Packers offense is actually the most blitzed team in the league at 35.7% of dropbacks.
I feel like I need to provide a hazardous warning sign for some of Jordan Love’s statistics against the blitz. Against the blitz, Love averages only 4.6 yards/pass (26th in the NFL), -0.43 EPA/dropback (31st – behind only Will Levis), and a -6.0% completion percentage over expectation (27th). The Green Bay offense, inclusive of Malik Willis, is 30th with -15 yards after catch over expectation when blitzed.
For comparison’s sake, when Love is not blitzed, he leads the NFL with 9.3 yards per attempt, is second with +0.28 EPA/dropback, and is second with 12 passing touchdowns—a completely different quarterback.
Love against the blitz in 2023 wasn’t his strong suit—and he was below average in a majority of metrics—but by no means did he turn into pumpkin like this year. Essentially, when Love is blitzed, his attempted yardage chops in half. He throws more checkdowns, becomes much less likely to put points on the board, becomes more inaccurate, and the offense loses its yards-after-catch potential.
The Lions won’t be able to blitz him every down and will need to survive when they rush only four defenders. When he has a clean pocket, Love is more comfortable stepping up to make big plays happen. Even in the Jaguars game, when he was clearly hobbled, he made a number of off-script completions. The Lions’ goal will be to collapse the pocket with extra bodies. If they’re successful this should be an opportune game for second and third level defenders to cause havoc in the backfield and potentially in the air. They’ll need to physically impose Love, test that hampered groin, and potentially add to Love’s league-leading nine interceptions against a defense that is tied for the second most interceptions in the league. I’ve been told Brian Branch loves feasting on cheese curds.
General Goff thwarting blitzkrieg efforts
Jared Goff’s performance when opponents blitz has been the inverse of Jordan Love’s struggles. Goff leads the NFL with a +0.42 EPA/dropback and 10.2 pass yards/play against the blitz. In addition, when Goff is blitzed, the Lions offense is averaging a league-leading +134 yards after catch over expectation and are fourth with pass catchers averaging 4.0 yards of separation on their targets.
The Packers defense, however, only blitzes on 17.5% of dropbacks which is 31st in the NFL. When their defense doesn’t blitz, there are mixed results, they are fourth with a -0.20 EPA/dropback but allow the fourth most YACOE at +165.
The Lions offense will need to maximize their opportunities when blitzed but they’ll also need to maintain a relatively high-powered attack when they aren’t blitzed. Fegardless of what Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley dials up, they should eat in the YAC department.
One thing in the Lions favor is that Green Bay may not have as much control over their lack of blitz usage in this matchup. The Lions’ offensive juggernaut may dictate the Packers blitzing more to prevent being steamrolled on the ground. That’s when Ben Johnson and Goff strike lightning in a bottle.
On dropbacks where opponents blitz the Lions, they lead the league—by a wide margin—with a 57.3.% play action pass usage. It turns into a pick your poison for the defense when the Lions spam the run game and play action attack. That’s the beauty of the Lions’ offensive system, their physical run game requires defenses to provide extra efforts to try to contain it, and the Lions complement it with one of the best play action passing attacks in the NFL.
Jam-packed with offensive line continuity
Reinforcing how critical it is for the Lions to keep Love from getting hot and heavy, I wanted to walk through the Packers big heavies up front.
For the first eight games of the season, the Packers have had the same starting lineup from left to right in Rasheed Walker, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Sean Rhyan, and Zach Tom. First-round rookie Jordan Morgan has rotated in for some series, for 24% of the snaps, at right guard as well.
While Tom is the stand-out of the bunch—PFF’s eighth-best graded offensive tackle—the rest of the unit has underwhelming individual grades. Myers is the next highest ranked at his position, but he’s the 39th best out of 40 centers, and neither of the other three starters are graded top-40 at their position.
This offensive line, however, is a case of the whole being greater than the sum of the parts. Which unfortunately for the Lions, the Packers have churned out reliable offensive lines for over two decades.
The Packers pass protection metrics help show why Love is able to succeed (particularly when not blitzed). They are the fourth-best in sack rate (only 4.8% of dropbacks), fifth in total sacks allowed (12), and 12th in quarterback pressure percentage (30.8% of dropbacks). The group, lead by well-regarded offensive line coach (and offensive coordinator) Adam Stenavich, provides a secure pocket for Packers passers, which is also aided by creative and friendly play calling.
One chink in the armor for the offensive line’s continuity, which could be exposed by the Lions, is an ongoing wrist injury to the starting center Myers. Myers injured the wrist against the Texans in Week 7, missed some snaps that game, and played through it last week against the Jaguars. He is now listed as doubtful after not participating in any practices this week.
“(He) has been huge for us, the continuity up front,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “He’s the guy kind of driving the ship up front, making the call. […] He’s one of those guys that’s kind of the heart and soul of the team.”
Both captain of the ship and the heart and soul seems vital.
The Packers projected game of musical chairs up front, if Myers is out, will send Jenkins from left guard to center, Rhyan from right guard to left guard, and means Morgan should get his first career NFL start at right guard. Alim McNeill and DJ Reader should absolutely take advantage of the uncertain shuffling on the Packers interior offensive line. Even more important, the Lions designed blitzes and defensive front stunts should lead to missed blocking assignments due to lack of chemistry, which will result in impact plays for the defense.
