Lions vs. Packers preview, prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers face off this week for first place in the NFC North. Finally, the bouts between these two teams mean something after decades of Packers dominance. Detroit has actually had the minor edge in this matchup in recent years, winning four of the last five contests over Green Bay. But the Packers are playing good football right now, and they really took it to the Lions last time the two teams met.

So who has the advantage this week? Let’s take a closer look in our Lions vs. Packers preview and prediction… On Paper.

Lions pass offense (12th in DVOA) vs. Packers pass defense (10th)

The Lions passing offense continues to rise up the ranks, even with their low-yardage output last week against the Titans. Jared Goff may have only had 61 net yards, but he did manage to throw three touchdowns, with the Lions going five-of-five in the red zone. His NFC Offensive Player of the Month award was well deserved.

Through seven games, here’s where the Lions pass offense ranks

• 9.5 Y/A (second)
• 117.7 passer rating (first)
• 74.1 completion percentage (first)
• 0.170 dropback EPA (seventh)
• 49.1% success rate (12th)

And if you take out the first two weeks of the season, here’s where they’re at:

• 9.5 Y/A (first)
• 147.0 passer rating (first)
• 82.3 completion percentage (first)
• 0.374 dropback EPA (second)
• 54.0% success rate (third)

The improvement seems to just be Jared Goff settling in. His PFF grade through the first two weeks of the season was 44.4—ranking 35th out of 39. Since Week 3, his grade has shot up to 82.2, which ranks sixth in the NFL.

In short, they’re playing like a top-three passing offense right now.

If there is one concern about the passing offense right now, it’s protecting Goff. He’s suffered 15 sacks in the last five games, including eight in the last two contests—with four (non-lossed) fumbles. Detroit ranks just 16th in team pass block PFF grade (69.9), although they still rank fifth in ESPN’s pass block win rate (66%).

The Packers pass defense is a little harder to peg down. They have some really impressive performances (holding the Texans to 55 net passing yards), but also some fairly concerning ones (like last week against the Jaguars).

Their overall stats are all over the place, too. They rank 19th in yards per attempt (7.3), 13th in passer rating allowed (84.5), ninth in completion percentage (63.5), seventh in dropback EPA (-0.033), but 28th in success rate. (50.5%).

When you see such a disparity in EPA and success rate, it typically means one thing: they struggle on a down-to-down basis, but they’re succeeding overall through turnovers. And, indeed, that’s exactly what’s going on here. Green Bay’s ten interceptions are tied for the second most in the NFL. If you don’t give the ball away, they can be beat. That’s easier said than done, though, as they’ve had at least two takeaways in all but one game this season.

The Packers pass rush also leaves a lot to be desired. Though they rank t-eighth in sacks (21), they’re 30th in pass rush win rate (31%), 23rd in PFF pass rush grade, and 21st in pressure percentage (per NFL Pro). No one on the team has more than three sacks, although Green Bay has upped their aggressiveness lately, so don’t be surprised to see more blitzing on Sunday.

Player to watch: Xavier McKinney. The Packers safety leads the NFL with six interceptions, all of which have come in different games. Per PFF, he’s allowed just 7 completions on 12 targets for 113 yards and a passer rating of 50.3 when targeted in coverage.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. I know the DVOA numbers don’t reflect it, but the Lions look to be significantly better than the Packers here. Detroit’s biggest weakness (pass protection) doesn’t look like it’ll be a huge problem this week, and the Packers’ biggest strength (forcing turnovers) matches well for Detroit because Goff hasn’t turned it over since Week 3.

Lions run offense (1st) vs. Packers run defense (12th)

The Lions rushing attack vaulted to No. 1 in DVOA after thrashing back-to-back run defenses that ranked in the top-10. It’s a pretty remarkable achievement for Detroit, considering most teams atop DVOA rankings have a mobile quarterback who is adding to their value on the ground.

For the season, the Lions rank fifth in yards per carry (5.1), sixth in yards per game (156.7), third in EPA per rush (+0.09), third in lowest stuffed rate (13.0%), and fourth in success rate (47.2%). By all accounts this is a top-five rushing attack that is likely a top-three.

Again, we see a lot of variance with the Packers’ run defense. They held the Titans in check nicely in Week 3—but Tennessee fell behind quickly in that game and only rushed the ball 11 times. They seem to have power with the big, north-south runners.

• Jonathan Taylor: 12 carries, 103 yards (8.6 YPC)
• Kyren Williams: 22 carries, 102 yards, 1 TD (4.6 YPC)
• Joe Mixon: 25 carries, 115 yards, 2 TDs (4.6 YPC)

Could this be a big day for David Montgomery?

Overall, the Packers rank ninth in yards per carry allowed (4.3) and ninth in EPA (-0.129), but 19th in success rate (40.7%)

Player to watch: Kenny Clark vs. Frank Ragnow. Clark remains quietly one of the best interior defenders in football, and his matchup against Ragnow (and Kevin Zeitler) should be an epic one.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. Again, I think there is a clear edge here, but the only thing that gives me pause is that Green Bay has a couple of really good performances on the board. Only three opponents have averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry against them this year. But Detroit hasn’t averaged under 4.1 yards per carry yet this season. And with a lot of rain predicted for Sunday, Detroit may lean heavy on the power run game.

Packers pass offense (5th) vs. Lions pass defense (4th)

*Games in which Malik Willis started

**Games in which both Willis and Jordan Love played

To make things simple, I am just going to assume that Jordan Love plays this week, considering he apparently avoided major injury to his groin and he was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice. The one note I’ll make regarding Willis is that they throw the ball considerably less when he’s in the game.

For Love, though, it’s been an up-and-down season. On a down-to-down basis, this Packers passing offense has been fine. They’re 12th in yards per attempt (7.8) and 16th in dropback success rate (45.6%). Despite the nine interceptions from Love (in just six games), the overall efficiency of this passing offense remains high because of the amount of touchdown passes (18, t-second), and big plays (second in NFL in passing plays of 20+ yards).

On deep shots (minimum 20 air yards), the Packers rank (per NFL Pro):

• Second in pass attempt (33)
• First in yards per game (74.4)
• Ninth in EPA/play (+0.55)
• Third in yards per attempt (18.0)

That’s how the entire pass offense is build because they actually rank 29th in EPA/play on intermediate routes and 13th on short routes. Don’t get beat deep, keep everything in front of you, and you should be okay.

Green Bay’s receiver room runs deep, but it’s Jayden Reed who has emerged as the top option. His 507 yards ranks 14th in the NFL.

Pass protection has been relatively good for Green Bay, as it always seems to be. They’ve allowed just 12 sacks on the season (notably Willis has taken five of those), they’re second in pass blocking PFF grade (81.0) and 17th in pass block win rate (58%).

You know earlier when I said that the Packers’ pass defense efficiency was being propped up by interceptions? Well, that much can be said about the Lions, too.

They rank just 15th in yards per attempt allowed (6.9) and 16th in success rate (45.7%). However, throw in their 10 interceptions (t-second), and they’re suddenly fourth in EPA per dropback (-0.074) and second in passer rating allowed (77.2).

That said, there’s at least a little more reason to believe their interception success is more sustainable than Green Bay’s. Because in addition to all the interception, Detroit also ranks fourth in pass breakups (41), while Green Bay is 16th in that category (30). The Lions’ overall PFF coverage grade is also third in the NFL (82.5).

However, the biggest question right now is if the coverage can hold up with the team’s pass rushing issues right now, and we’re sitting at a big fat INCONCLUSIVE right now. Detroit’s defensive line is responsible for just one sack in the past two games without Aidan Hutchinson, and it resulted in some tough stretches against Sam Darnold and Mason Rudolph.

That said, the key to stopping the Packers is defending the deep shot, and Detroit is one of the best teams in football at that. Per NFL Pro, the Lions rank fourth in EPA/pass against passes of 20+ yards downfield, despite ranking 17th in pressure percentage in those situations. They’re leaning on their coverage, and it’s working.

Player to watch: Reed vs. Amik Robertson. Reed has been very dangerous, and while he moves all around, most of his damage has been done through the slot. Robertson is a scrappy player, but he’s struggled in coverage this year—allowing 21 catches on 32 targets for 277 yards and a touchdown (103.3 passer rating).

Advantage: Draw. The one thing that can (and very well may) tip the scales in Green Bay’s favor is flags. This isn’t meant to be a “Green Bay gets the call” post. The Lions have the most pass interference calls against them, and the Packers have the 10th most yardage gained by pass interference penalties. That said, given that Love turns the ball over a lot and takes deep shots, that plays well into the Lions’ strengths.

Packers run offense (6th) vs. Lions run defense (8th)

*Games in which Malik Willis starter
**Games in which both Willis and Jordan Love played

Green Bay can tote the rock, and that’s particularly true if Malik Willis is at quarterback. But even putting him aside, Josh Jacobs has been a very efficient runner for the Packers—and it’s largely him doing the work.

The Packers offensive line has not been a good run blocking unit this year. They rank 24th in run block win rate (69%), 30th in PFF run blocking grade (52.2), and 13th in adjusted line yards. Yet Jacobs ranks fourth in rushing yard (667), 19th in yards per carry (4.6), and 13th in rushing yards over expected per carry (+0.8).

A disturbing trend is starting to emerge. Detroit’s run defense has uncharacteristically given up over 130 yards in three of their last four games as the defensive line injuries continue to mount. Not only is Aidan Hutchinson out, but Detroit also lost the stout run defending nose tackle Kyle Peko and linebacker Derrick Barnes. This week, they may be without defensive end Josh Paschal again, and they’re almost certainly going to be down another linebacker with Malcolm Rodriguez dealing with an ankle injury. That front seven is very beat up, and it’s starting to show.

The efficiency metrics are starting to plummet, too. They’re 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.7), eighth in rush/EPA (-0.151), and 11th in success rate (36.4%). It’s not terrible, but it’s not up to Detroit’s lofty standards.

Player to watch: DJ Reader. The one thing working in Detroit’s favor is Green Bay does most of their work up the middle, and that’s where the Lions remain strong. Reader is still an elite run defender, and he should give Packers center Josh Myers (currently dead last in PFF grade) some issues.

Advantage: Packers +1. I’ve lost significant confidence in Detroit’s run defense over the past few weeks, and the Packers seem like the type of team that could give them trouble. Detroit has had issues tackling bruising rushers, and Jacobs certainly fits that profile. If the Lions front seven was healthy, I’d feel a lot better about this matchup, but they aren’t.

Last week’s prediction:

Last week, I predicted 27-13 Lions, and, to be quite honest, I don’t feel bad about that prediction. On Paper toyed with the idea of incorporating special teams for a year or two, but eventually concluded there is very little predictive power with what limited special teams stats are out there. That said, the Titans were ranked 32nd in special teams DVOA going into the game, so there were signs that Detroit could have dominated in that phase, but not like that. I’m still not going to use special teams in these articles, but if you’re curious, the Packers are 26th in special teams DVOA and the Lions are first.

On Paper is now 6-1 overall in its prediction and 5-2 against the spread.

In the comment section, no one predicted the final score of 52-14, but there were several who were close.

• 41-9 by Sandbagger9
• 41-20 by AGXGOLF
• 49-6 by rodlionn
• 44-13 by Feld
• 42-13 by Isolated Thunder
• 42-13 by Muddy.D
• 45-12 by DragonLion67
• 41-17 by BarryStillRules
• 45-17 by 1951LION
• 42-17 by Long Time Lions Fan
• 43-13 by akumaizer
• 42-13 by CLF

But no one was closer than Tree!try, who offered their prediction as a tribute to a long-lost MLive commenter:

There used to be a person on M-Live that would go by the screen name Soul Man. He’d predict the same score every week of 55 to 10. Haven’t seen this poster in ages so I hope everything’s okay and just has given up on posting but if ever there was a chance of that prediction coming through, it’s this game right here. So to carry in the tradition for the Soul Man, give me the great Detroit Lions 55, the other guys 10.

Soul Man, wherever you are, this is for you:

(Please press play on Sarah MacLauchlan….. NOW)

This week’s prediction:

The Lions come out with a minor +2 advantage. My main takeaway from my research was that Green Bay’s defense may not be as good as their DVOA stats suggest, and that should lead to a strong day from Detroit’s offense, as long as they don’t turn the ball over. The weather could make things funky, but, again, I think that may play into Detroit’s favor given their elite rushing attack.

I’m going to predict on the low end of scoring because of the rain, so that may keep the score artificially close. Lions 24, Packers 20.