Does Malik Nabers have a drop problem?

He’s actually no different from many great wide receivers

Almost halfway through the season, New York Giants rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers has a case to be made as the best player to come out of the 2024 NFL Draft, although his former LSU teammate Jayden Daniels probably has the inside track on Rookie of the Year because quarterbacks trump all other positions in value. He’s second only to another former LSU teammate, Brian Thomas Jr., in receiving yards among NFL rookies despite playing two fewer games (man, was that 2023 LSU offense something). He’s also 15th among all receivers.

The only chink in the Nabers armor is the increasing perception that he has a drop problem. It first surfaced in the training camp joint practice with the Jets, when he had several drops, including one that might have gone for a touchdown. He had one in Week 1 vs. Minnesota. Then in Washington in Week 2, with the game tied at 18 with two minutes left, Nabers dropped Daniel Jones’ fourth-down pass at the 11-yard line, a play that might have led to a Giants’ victory (“might” because they had no kicker):

On Monday night in Pittsburgh, after returning from a concussion, Nabers had two more drops, including this one:

That’s four in six games, and it has the Giants’ Twitterverse mumbling. Does Malik Nabers actually have a drop problem?

“As a receiver, you’re going to drop the ball,” Nabers said on Thursday. “You don’t want to drop the ball. There are some people that are better at catching the ball than others. But when you drop the ball, you just got to flush it and go back to the next one.”

Unlike stats such as touchdowns and receiving yards, a “drop” is a value judgment. Everyone defines it as a catchable pass that is not caught, but “catchable” is in the eye of the beholder. For example, Pro Football Reference charged Nabers with a drop in Cleveland as well that Pro Football Focus did not. Still, a rate of almost one drop per game isn’t good, right?

Not necessarily. Here are the NFL leaders in drops for the 2023 season:

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

If Nabers winds up being in the company of the likes of Puka Nacua, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Davante Adams, that’s not something to lose sleep over.

Here are the top 20 drop leaders for 2024 to date:

Courtesy of Pro Football Reference

Again, you have names such as Amari Cooper, Jaylen Waddle, Garrett Wilson, DK Metcalf, George Pickens, fellow top 10 rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., and Brandon Aiyuk. (Darius Slayton, too.)

Why do so many elite wide receivers have so many drops? It’s pretty simple. The best receivers see the ball come their way a lot. Nabers (73 targets) has been targeted more than any other receiver in the NFL except Garrett Wilson this season. A better indicator, then, would be drop percentage, which is shown in the column next to drops above. Anything below 10% should probably be considered acceptable. Nabers’ drop rate of 6.8% is actually one of the lowest among the receivers in the top 20 for drops in the table above.

The other relevant thing is the types of passes that come a receiver’s way. The one aspect of this that is easily measured is average depth of target (ADOT). A receiver whose stock in trade is screen passes and slants (think Wan’Dale Robinson – three drops, 4.2% drop rate, 4.0 yard ADOT) should in principle have an easier time catching the ball than a receiver who runs more intermediate and deep routes. Nabers’ 10.5 ADOT is in the mid-range of the top 20 receivers in drops. In fact, he is second in the NFL among all wide receivers in being targeted deep (bet you wouldn’t have expected that from someone catching passes from Daniel Jones):

Courtesy of Pro Football Focus

Unfortunately, he’s only caught three of his 17 deep targets. It’s mostly not his fault in PFF’s eyes: His receiving grade is an excellent 87.7 on such throws. His grade is however lower than the grades in the 90s that a number of the other receivers have. Only one of his drops is on a deep pass. Five deep targets have been contested throws (CTT), though, and he’s only come down with one of those. That may not be a surprise – Nabers is more a get-open player than a 50-50 ball player.

The bottom line: The Giants throw to Malik Nabers a lot. He’s going to drop a few. It’s not a problem. Chill.