Facing a wide receiver room with plenty of depth, the Detroit Lions secondary will be tasked with a tall order on Sunday. Here’s how they can handle it.
I feel like it’s Groundhog Day for the Detroit Lions, as once again they are tasked with taking on some difficult wide receivers this week. Unlike previous weeks, it’s not just one, two, or even three wide receivers they need to worry about, it’s four of them. The Green Bay Packers don’t have a “superstar” wide receiver, but they have plenty of solid contributors that give defenses trouble.
For Detroit to walk away with a victory, the secondary will have the biggest task in slowing down the Packers wide receivers. Whether that is forcing Green Bay to move their offense to the ground, creating turnovers, or getting help from elsewhere to assist them, the game will determine how they perform. Here’s why I think the Lions secondary is the x-factor heading into Week 9.
Pick your poison
Green Bay has serious depth at wide receiver from Jayden Reed to Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks. Their offense doesn’t need one guy to go off when they can have four guys contribute evenly and pick you apart. While the Lions offense has weapons all over, they don’t have the depth at wide receiver like Green Bay does. Sure, the Lions have some contributors like Tim Patrick and Allen Robinson behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Kalif Raymond, but they aren’t putting up the numbers Green Bay’s wide receivers are. It’s a true pick your poison when they are all out on the field together.
Look at how evenly the rock is distributed:
- Jayden Reed: 41 targets, 31 catches, 507 yards, 3 TDs
- Romeo Dubbs, 40 targets, 26 catches, 384 yards, 2 TDs
- Dontayvion Wicks: 40 targets, 16 catches, 192 yards, 4 TDs
- Christian Watson: 20 targets, 13 catches, 196 yards, 2 TDs
Green Bay ranks ninth in passing yards per game (233.1), and tied for sixth in yards per attempt (8.0). The best part about them is their ability to score, as they are second in the NFL in passing touchdowns with 18. The Lions secondary will have their hands full with all four players, and I didn’t even go into how tight end Tucker Kraft (342 yards, 5 TDs) has been explosive for this offense.
Playmakers gotta make plays
Despite the lack of pressure from the defensive line, the Lions still have one of the best coverage secondaries in the NFL. According to PFF, the Lions have the third-highest coverage grade in the NFL with an 82.5. What helps that grade is the playmakers at safety. Safeties Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are second and third in the NFL in interceptions with Joseph having five to Branch’s four.
Both safeties are going to have to be atop their game this week. Whether it’s an interception to catch up to Packers safety Xavier McKinney, who leads the NFL in interceptions with six, or a forced fumble or pass deflection, someone has to do something big in this matchup. It doesn’t have to be a turnover. It can be a critical third-down tackle or a big pass deflection on a deep pass. Whatever it is, Detroit will need to offset a high-octane passing attack with big defensive plays.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love—who may or may not play this week—is tied for the most interceptions in the NFL with nine, so he already has been playing a bit too aggressively. The opportunity for picks will be there if he plays. That said, the cornerbacks will be tested and while we have seen rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold improve over the past few weeks, he still hasn’t had much of a positive impact this season, and this game will test his ability to cover different types of receivers because Green Bay has a vast amount of them.
Force Green Bay to run the ball
If Love plays, a question for him will be how durable will he be. If he takes too many hits, he might not be able to move around in the pocket to get a pass off. Green Bay seems confident in their backup Malik Willis to come in and play, as he is 2-0 in starts this year, but if Love stays in and isn’t able to move around, Green Bay could decide to start running the football more.
When looking into this more, I noticed when Willis was starting, Green Bay relied much more on the run than when Love was playing. Willis only threw 33 passes in his two starts, while the Packers ran it a total of 90 times. Now in both of those games, Green Bay was up by 10 by the end of the first quarter, but I don’t believe a team would run the clock out quickly just after only one quarter and a 10-point lead isn’t impossible to come back from.
When Love was playing, he threw it 201 times and the running backs ran it 141 times. When looking at these numbers, you have to provide context. Against the Minnesota Vikings, the Packers had to throw heavily as they were down 28 in the first half, but even in the 21-point victory over the Arizona Cardinals, Green Bay still threw more than ran. Whoever starts at quarterback on Sunday could determine how heavily the run game will be involved against Detroit.
The Packers have a good running back in Josh Jacobs, so it’s not like they lack the talent at the starting spot. Their depth isn’t as good as Detroit’s, but Jacobs is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards at 667, so running the ball can be effective for them.
That said, the run blocking has not been good for Green Bay. The team has a PFF grade of 52.2 for run blocking, the third lowest in the NFL. Heading into this game, Detroit has the seventh-best run defense grade of 72.4, but with the team allowing 5.1 yards per carry, tied for the third highest in the NFL, Green Bay could find some success on the ground. If the Packers struggle to move the ball through the air against this Lions secondary, no matter who starts at quarterback, Green Bay might lean towards Jacobs and the offensive line to get the ball moving on the ground. If Detroit has a big lead early though, Green Bay might not have a choice and face a difficult secondary.
