Giants vs. Commanders, Week 9: What to expect when Washington has the ball?

The New York Giants have their first rematch of the 2024 season as they return home to take on the Washington Commanders in Week 9.

It might seem like a distant memory, but the Giants’ two games against Washington were looked at as “likely wins” on an otherwise tough schedule. Then the Giants lost their Week 2 matchup against the Commanders despite not allowing a touchdown. That game, even more than the Giants’ Week 1 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, rung alarm bells that things might not go as planned this year for the Giants.

Six weeks later, the Commanders lead the NFC East with a 6-2 record. The Giants, meanwhile, are in last place with a 2-6 record and an 0-3 record within the division.

While the Giants’ record is dismal and their offense is even less prolific than it was in 2023, they’ve consistently been in games. That has been due, in large part, to the Herculean efforts of Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, and the rest of the Giants’ defense.

What can the Giants’ defense expect from the Commanders’ offense this time around?

Stats that matter

(Note: The cited win rates might not be accurate to date. At this point they’re likely generally accurate, however ESPN either hasn’t updated for Week 8, or has a typo as to when they are updated through. The numbers will be updated if new ones arrive.)

How the Commanders’ passing offense has developed

No, those aren’t typos up above. I sincerely doubt anyone saw it coming, but Washington has fielded one of the best offenses in the NFL through the first half of the season. Given the presence — and running ability — of Brian Robinson and Jayden Daniels, it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that Washington has one of the best rushing offenses in the NFL.

It is, surprising, however, that they’ve fielded one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.

There were plenty of questions regarding the Commanders’ passing offense before the season started. How would rookie Jayden Daniels perform, and what would Kliff Kingsbury’s offense look like? Would their protection hold up and could Daniels get Terry McLaurin the ball? Could the Commanders find productive receivers not named “Terry McLaurin”?

So far the answers have been overwhelmingly positive. Daniels has acquitted himself spectacularly well and Kingsbury has done a great job of scheming to Daniels’ strength as well as expanding over time upon what works. The Commanders’ offensive line has come together and currently ranks eighth in the NFL in true pass sets. They’ve diversified their passing offense and Daniels is distributing the ball well.

McLaurin and Zach Ertz are, by far, his most targeted options at 57 and 45 targets, respectively. However, running back Austin Ekeler and receivers Noah Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, Dyami Brown, and rookie Luke McCaffrey have all been targeted between 27 and 13 times. The Commanders don’t do much that’s particularly exotic or complex with their passing attack. However, their diversity of targets and willingness to distribute the ball to a variety of receivers helps to make them efficient and difficult to defend.

Like most modern offenses, they make heavy use of alignment and play design to create separation and easy reads for the quarterback. Here we see them use a combination of play action and vertical routes — one of which turns into a deep crossing route — to create space for Zach Ertz on the crossing route.

Later in the game, they use an empty set with 11-personnel to spread the Bears’ defense out. They exacerbate the weaponization of space by using three vertical routes to force the Bears to respect the deep ball.

Meanwhile, they have tight end Zach Ertz and rookie wide receiver Luke McCaffrey run shallow out routes from tight alignments. The alignment and chips thrown by the two makes it look like this is a deep shot with a seven-man protection. The Bears have to respect the vertical routes and effectively have six defenders covering three receivers when Daniels throws the ball.

Giants head coach Brian Daboll has said that the Deonte Banks will return to the starting lineup after being benched against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It seems likely that he’ll be asked to shadow Terry McLaurin, and that’s a tough matchup. More of the Commanders’ passing offense has gravitated towards McLaurin as the new offensive dynamics have settled in.

However, the willingness to use secondary receivers as primary reads will stress the defense and force individual defenders to step up. Veteran journeyman Greg Stroman played well for the Giants against the Steelers, but their secondary could be short-handed as Adoree’ Jackson and Cor’Dale Flott continue to deal with injuries.

How the Giants’ depth in the secondary plays — and how well they’re able to confuse Jayden Daniels with their coverage rotations — will be one of the keys to this game. Giving up explosive plays and touchdowns will allow the Commanders to lean on their running game as the game progresses. And it’s a running game that’s been a problem for (almost) everyone they’ve faced.

Can the Giants defend the run?

The Giants should be able to defend the run. Actually, they should have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. After all, they have one of the (and probably THE) best defensive linemen in the NFL in Dexter Lawrence. Their other defensive tackles are all stout, Brian Burns has uncommon length and quickness to make plays off of blocks, and Brian Okereke and Micah McFadden are one of the league’s better linebacker duos. Not to mention, Shane Bowen’s defense has long been lauded for defending the run.

And yet, the Giants’ run defense has been gashed this year.

They currently rank 24th in rushing EPA allowed, 27th in yards per game allowed, and 32nd in yards per attempt allowed. They’ve given up over 100 yards per game in six of their eight games, and allowed 167 yards against the Steelers, 215 yards on the ground against Washington in Week 2, and 269 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 7.

Stopping the run will be paramount to any success the Giants’ defense will have this week. But that’s also be easier said than done.

The Commanders’ rushing game primarily relies on zone blocking principles, with a mix of outside zone, counter runs, and inside zone to attack different parts of the of the defensive front. They have a relatively athletic offensive line and zone runs fit the strengths of Brian Robinson and Jayden Daniels well.

We’ll get to Daniels in a minute, but the rushing ability of Brian Robinson Jr. can’t be ignored. Giants fans are already well-acquainted with Robinson: he’s a big, powerful back with good vision and great contact balance. He isn’t terribly fast and wont’ break monster runs, but he’s a hand-full on a down-to-down basis. Zone runs play to his strengths, giving him a menu of rushing lanes while also stretching defenses laterally and (potentially) creating bad tackling angles which he turns into yards after contact.

Washington also loves to use pulling linemen to create a numbers advantage on the play-side.

It seems likely that Washington will try to target Azeez Ojulari on the edge in the running game. While Ojulari has been a spectacular speed rusher for the Giants, he’s struggled to set the edge and be consistently stout in run defense. It’s an obvious weakness, and one both teams will be aware of.

How the Giants cope with their potential weakness on the edge will be something to follow. We could see the Giants shade McFadden and Okereke to the outside and help reinforce the Giants’ edge defenders, with a safety rotating from a deep coverage shell to play the robber role and take away the middle of the field.

We could also see Isaiah Simmons used as a moveable piece to add some size to combat Zach Ertz and Robinson, as well as maintain athleticism.

Up the middle, the onus will be on Lawrence. The Giants will need their best player to disrupt the Commanders behind the line of scrimmage. Getting penetration to force premature cutbacks or slow pulling blockers is a fantastic way to defend zone runs, but also easier said than done. The Giants will need Lawrence to not only command double teams to help his teammates, but also create enough of a push up front to slow Robinson or force him to re-route.

The Giants have their work cut out for them in run defense. They’ll need a whole-team effort with their stars shining all afternoon to slow down Robinson.

Slowing down Jayden Daniels

Washington has undergone a revolution over the past year. The change in ownership, front office, and coaching staff seems to have ushered in a new era of competence for the Commanders. Their first big move was to select Daniel No. 2 overall, and he has been nothing short of a revelation.

Barring a significant injury or dramatic reversal of fortunes, Daniels seems to be on his way to winning Offensive Rookie Of the Year. And in fact, he’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL through eight weeks. Right now he leads the league in overall efficiency, with a 0.193 EPA+CPOE composite score. For those not familiar, the EPA+CPOE composite score weighs how much more (or less) likely the team is to score due to the quarterback’s actions (EPA per play) and their completion percentage over (or under) expectation. For reference, Josh Allen is second with a 0.181 score and Lamar Jackson is third with 0.172 score.

Daniels’ combination of athletic and mental traits has made him dangerous early in his career.

His athleticism obviously leaps off the screen, and he allows the Commanders to play 11-on-11 football in the running game in a way which few other teams are capable. The read-option and designed quarterback runs are always on the table, and Daniels’ ability to pull the ball down and scramble can make any defense pay for a lack of discipline. But as mentioned above, Daniels is also quickly becoming a very good passer.

He’s completing 74.0 percent of his passes (not counting throw-aways or spikes) while also averaging 8.1 air yards per attempt. Part of that is due to Kingsbury’s scheme creating relatively easy reads for the rookie — but again, that’s something every modern offense does. Daniels is also showing impressive poise for a rookie, even when under pressure. The completion to Luke McCaffrey shown above is a good example of this. The Washington offensive line allows pressure into the backfield on the long-developing play. But rather than panic, Daniels keeps his eyes downfield and uses his mobility to dodge the pass rusher and buy time to get the ball to McCaffrey.

But as well as he’s playing, Daniels is still a rookie and still human. The Giants’ best bet to throw him off his game could be to mix simulated and actual pressures at a high rate. The Giants typically don’t blitz often, though their pass rush has been at its most effective when they do. Showing pressure early and often could slow down Daniels’ process. Combined with the aforementioned coverage rotations to bring an extra defender into the box, the Giants could throw Daniels off his game and frustrate the Commanders’ offense.

The other element is that the Giants will need contributions from their own offense. The defense will need the offense to put points on the board and pressure the Washington offense. Whether or not they’ll get that support is, of course, another matter entirely.