Per an advanced statistical model, the Detroit Lions are the best team in football, and it’s not close.
The Detroit Lions are 6-1, are off to their best start in nearly 70 years, and have blown out two of their last three opponents. It’s not hard to make the case that they’re the best team in football, despite the fact that the returning champion Kansas City Chiefs remain undefeated.
But why try to make a subjective argument when you can rely on objective statistics?
According to DVOA, a statistic created by Aaron Schatz, that measures a team’s efficiency and then adjusts it to the strength of their opponent, the Lions are the No. 1 team in football. And, as Schatz put it, they’re the top team “by a big margin.”
Per the statistic, the Lions have a +44.8% total team DVOA (0 is average). The next closest team, the Baltimore Ravens, are at +31.4%. The Vikings—the number one team just two weeks ago—are third at 29.0%, and the undefeated Chiefs are fourth at 28.1%.
What’s remarkable about the Lions’ performance is how they are ranked high in every aspect of their team. They have the fourth-best offense by DVOA, the third-best defense, and the top special teams unit in football. They can beat you in so many different ways, as evidenced by their strange-but-dominant win over the Tennessee Titans this past Sunday.
Breaking down the team further, Detroit has a top-10 unit in every aspect of the game except one: oddly their pass offense, which ranks 12th in DVOA. Here’s the rest:
- Pass offense: 12th in DVOA
- Run offense: First
- Pass defense: Fourth
- Run defense: Eighth
And if you’re not a fan of DVOA, Detroit dominates other advanced statistics, too. Looking at Expected Points Added (via rbsdm), the Lions reign supreme. By EPA, the Lions offense ranks fourth (seventh in pass, first in run), and fifth on defense (fourth vs. pass, eighth vs. run). Those are nearly identical rankings to DVOA.
You could just look at the most basic stats, as well. The Lions are first in points scored (33.4 PPG), eighth in points allowed (19.1 PPG), and first in point differential (+100). Any way you slice it, the Lions come out as a strong contender as the best team in the NFL.
If you’re more curious about the DVOA statistic, you can read more about it here.
