4 keys to a Detroit Lions Week 8 victory over the Tennessee Titans. It’s the Honolulu Blueprint!
The Detroit Lions (5-1) are back home in the comfy confines of Ford Field in Week 8, welcoming in the Tennessee Titans (1-5) for their first inter-conference battle of the season. These teams are in very different spots right now. The Lions are on fire and are considered one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Titans are struggling to find their identity, and are in full-on rebuild mode, selling off some of their top pieces.
“I know what that’s like,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said of Titans coach Brian Callahan. “He’s putting his stamp on this team, working through things, trying to find the right mix of how you want to do it. And so, every week, you’re figuring things out.”
The Titans have talent among their starters but they lack cohesiveness, and their depth looks to be a few more offseasons before being properly built. But teams with talent can surprise, and in the NFL, you have to come ready to play every Sunday—something the Lions are prepared for.
“Turn on the tape and don’t kid yourself because this unit has got plenty of firepower over there,” Campbell said. “So that being said, that’s one. Two is: we’ve got our own standards and it’s about us and how we handle our business. We’ve got to make our corrections from last week and we’ve got to improve this week.”
If the Lions want to continue their hot streak, they’ll need to follow the keys to victory laid out in this week’s Honolulu Blueprint.
Titans base schemes
Typically in this section, we break down the Lions’ opponent’s base schemes, but we decided to expand our view in a separate piece: Lions Week 8 Preview: Breaking down Titans’ offensive and defensive schemes.
So, be sure to check it out for more context related to this week’s keys to victory.
Key 1: Speed Kills
The Lions lean heavily on their rushing attack and are among the top rushing teams in most categories. They’re No. 2 in DVOA rushing offense, No. 1 in DVOA adjusted line yards (which measures specific areas of rushing, all of which the Lions are in the top 10), fourth in team rushing yards per game (155.5 YPG), and feature two of PFF’s top 15 rushers in the league in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
On paper, the Titans have a strong defense, especially against the run. They’re eighth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (105.5 YPG), No. 1 in “stuff rate” (making stops at or behind the line of scrimmage: 29.2% of run plays), and are sixth in DVOA run defense. Their top defenders have impressive PFF run grades, including All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons (third-best interior run defender, 80.3 run defense grade), second-round NT T’Vondre Sweat (15th per PFF, 71.4), and edge rusher Harold Landry (eighth amongst edge players against the run, 78.1 grade). DL Sebastian Joseph-Day (59.9) and edge rusher Arden Key (62.2) split time between their fourth role, depending on play call, and live around league average.
The Titans’ back-seven of the defense is average to below average at best in stopping the run. All their linebackers are well below average against the run, and while the safeties are solid—especially Quandre Diggs—they play in a two-high shell so often, it’s hard for them to be overly impactful on a consistent basis.
The Titans’ strength against the run is in handling power runs while pressuring the line of scrimmage and clogging rushing lanes. Their weakness lies beyond the front four, and when teams can break through, there’s a lot of real estate available to run on. They’re typically susceptible to running backs with speed, especially those who can get skinny in the hole and are challenging in the open field. Additionally, speed backs who can catch the ball can give them problems, as the Titans are in the bottom third of the league when it comes to covering running backs in the passing game.
This sets up well for Gibbs, who is incredibly quick to run to daylight and is near impossible to stop in the open field. He can also be a lethal weapon in the passing game, catching screens, routes into the flat, and the always-popular Texas route.
Key 2: Beat the zone
The Titans put a lot of expectations on their front-four. Not only are they expected to stop the run, but they get little help with the pass rush. The Titans blitz just 20.7% of the time (25th in the NFL), they stack the box less than 10% of the time, and as a result, they don’t get much pressure on the quarterback. Currently, they’re 31st in the NFL in pressures, 28th in sacks (10 team sacks on the season), and allow quarterbacks 2.72 seconds before pressure arrives (22nd).
They play primarily zone coverage with their back-seven, and drop their safeties into two-high shells to prevent big plays. If teams find success in the run game, they may roll a safety down to the linebacker level, but that leaves them open to the deep ball more than they’d prefer. With this overall approach, they find a lot of success defending the deep ball, but as a result of the dedication to keep two-deep safeties, they become more vulnerable in the intermediate routes.
This sets up very well for the Lions to attack the zone with Amon-Ra St. Brown—who navigates zone coverage at the intermediate level with precision—and Sam LaPorta. With Jameson Williams suspended, and the Titans’ weakness, the Lions may turn to LaPorta more this week. The Titans have done well vs. tight ends this season only allowing 18 receptions over six games and zero touchdowns, but the circumstances point to this being a potential outlier game, meaning LaPorta could be a big part of the Lions game plan.
Expect a lot of targets and expectations for yards-after-the-catch opportunities for St. Brown, LaPorta, and Gibbs.
Key 3: Focus on the Titans’ rushing attack
I spent some time discussing all the flaws in the Titans’ passing attack in my scheme breakdown preview, so I won’t waste time reiterating that here. However, I will point out that the one consistent area in which they’ve had success is running back Tony Pollard’s ability to generate yards on the ground—even if he’s doing almost all the work on his own.
Heading into this game, Pollard is second in the NFL in gaining yards after contact, with an impressive 4.2 YAC. Unfortunately for the Titans, he is only averaging 4.3 yards per carry because he is getting little to no push from his offensive line. On average, defenses make contact with Pollard within 0.5 yards of the line of scrimmage (worst push in the NFL), and over half the time, they are hitting him at the line or in the backfield.
The Lions prioritize stopping the run and they should double down in this game. While the Lions do allow opposing offensive lines to get some push, they’ve been excellent in stopping the run once they make contact. Currently, the Lions are second in the NFL in YAC yards allowed (just 2.5), which should make Pollard’s day even more difficult.
Key 4: Capitalize on Tennessee’s mistakes
On average, the Titans throw 1.3 interceptions and lose 0.7 fumbles a game, equaling 2.0 turnovers per game, 31st in the NFL. On defense, they’ve forced just three turnovers all season—all credited to safety Amani Hooker—giving them a disappointing 0.5 turnovers per game average. As a result, they end up with a -1.5 turnover differential per game, which also ranks 31st in the NFL.
“The stat is turnovers, it’s the turnover ratio,” Campbell said of the biggest obstacle holding the Titans back. “They’ve given up a couple and they haven’t gotten any on defense, so you flip that just a little bit and they’re not sitting where they are.”
Meanwhile, the Lions only give the ball away 0.8 times per game, while taking the ball away on defense 1.8 times per game (eight interceptions and three fumble recoveries), giving them a +1.0 turnover differential per game average, which is the third-best mark in the NFL.
The Lions most turnover-opportunistic players have come from the secondary, where Brian Branch has four interceptions and a forced fumble, Kerby Joseph has four interceptions (all coming in the end zone), while Terrion Arnold and Carlton Davis both have fumble recoveries. Linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez has the lone non-secondary fumble recovery.
If turnovers are indeed the catalyst in preventing the Titans from reaching expectations, as Campbell suggested, the Lions need to be opportunistic and aggressively work to keep that margin in their favor.
